THE QUICKER WE DROP, THE FASTER BULL RUN ARRIVES!
XBT Mid-week TOP DOWN ANALYSIS
Welcome to another episode of our favourite show - bitcoin brought to you by FELIX!
ROUND UP OF OUR MOST RECENT BREAKDOWN
- Following our most recent price top-down analysis for Bitcoin/XBT, I stated that we could intra-day trade the wedge , which bitcoin was stuck in and that I was in favour of a break upwards towards 4.9k before the drop to sub 3500$ level is attained. None the less, I did state that, if we broke the 4000$ support, we will be able to see further direction to the downside and that we could not rule out a drop to the downside. I also told you guys that long positions in this current bear market are very risky and those that are conservative should stick with shorting from tops as there is more momentum to the downside currently for bitcoin . The rule of thumb for all my priority costumers is that they should look at momentum to the downside as an indicator of when the bull run will come - the quicker we drop to our long term downward targets that we have been stating for months and months, when most traders were looking for long opportunities to 19k.
WEEKLY CHART BREAKDOWN
- We can see that on the weekly, bitcoin has broken downwards and looks like a bearish engulfing candle could be the closing candle for the week - most definitely in fact. Only positive bullish aspect here is that we are ever closer to weekly support on RSI/ROC at 40 level, which has constantly kept prices up on the weekly charts and to date, bitcoin has not broken this level to the downside.
DAILY CHART BREAKDOWN
- Currently, Daily charts are also looking very bearish with a rejection from pre-planned zones of 40 RSI/ROC on the daily. We can see that initial support zone of 3800-850$ could not hold and we saw that price floor broken through as part of the descending wedge (in BLUE). This level is now a ceiling and we can comfortably say that we can move our major ceiling area from 4.9k to now 3,850-3950 (with maximum spikes to 4150$ on BITFINEX - which is traditionally a more bullish exchange).
- Furthermore, we can also deduce that for us to reach support zones on our chart, the bears will need to take price to ATLEAST 3200$ ONCE AGAIN before any attempts to the upside are made the bulls - remember the law of gravity , exactly the same in the markets (what goes up, must come down and vice versa).
4 HOURLY CHART BREAKDOWN
- We are currently right under MA and saw a rejection from MA at 3500$ (which previously was a price floor and not a price ceiling). This rejection also came in line with a rejection from descending wedge , which we broke out of slightly to the downside. We can expect price to stay below this descending wedge structure and it should remain as an indicator for upper limits of price. So, what I mean by this is (as stated in our priority channel), that a break above 3427$ on the 4 hourly charts, will lead to 3600$ and a break above this will lead to 3800-3950$ ceiling (a retest of previous wedge structure. None the less, I firmly believe that resistance zones at 3427$ and 3600$ will hold.
- Therefore, for any CONSERVATIVE BEARS, who are following my advice to the T and want to stay in short positions from shorting at resistance zones, then these levels should be in your head.
- Now, looking at our momentum indicators of RSI and RSI/ROC, we can see that they are both at important resistance levels of 37 (on RSI ) and 40 levels (on RSI/ROC). Thus, I expect a pull back to 3200$ and even worse, 3060$ before any support is expected from the bulls.
- AS A MOMENTUM INDICATOR TO THE DOWNSIDE, we can assume that the 15 level on RSI on 4 hourly to be a support zone , thus shorts are fine up and until this level.
1 HOURLY CHART BREAKDOWN
- The hourly charts are great in pinning your entry and we can see that, in a perfect world, a short entry from 3427$ would have been best. None the less, we can see that due to this downward activity to current price of 3330$, MA on the hourly is now being used as a ceiling. Whereas, moments earlier it could have been confused for price support - this is inline with our top down analysis, as all charts have MA being used as resistance.
- Furthermore, from a more momentum side, we can see that sideway price action has allowed us to reach the infamous 62 RSI/ROC short zone in line with a rejection from previous descending wedges support line. I expect bitcoin on the hourly to pull back to 50 RSI/ROC before any bull activity arrives. This means that we can comfortably target 3200$ (conservative target) to at least form a double bottom at this level. Our more unconservative target would be 3063$, this would confirm my ideas of price wedging in the 3400-3063$ region before the NEXT MAJOR move.
- In the case of history repeating itself, we could move to lows of 2950$ - which, right before the previous bull run was a support zone that gave bitcoin its necessary momentum up to 19k!
MEDIUM TERM BIASIS STILL STAY THE SAME WITH TARGETS TO THE DOWNSIDE AT 2.8K,2.5K AND 2.1K!
HOW CAN I TRADE THIS INFORMATION ?
- If you are to go short at current price, please ensure you place stop loss right above 3427$ (tight) and if you want a loose stop loss, 3470$ would be good.
- Conservative take profit is at previous low of 3200$ and risky take profits lie between 3063$ and 2950$.
ENSURE TO FOLLOW OUR INSTAGRAM PAGE DOWN BELOW AND CLICK THE LINK IN THE BIO FOR OUR VIP CHANNEL TO STAY UP TO DATE!
Welcome to another episode of our favourite show - bitcoin brought to you by FELIX!
ROUND UP OF OUR MOST RECENT BREAKDOWN
- Following our most recent price top-down analysis for Bitcoin/XBT, I stated that we could intra-day trade the wedge , which bitcoin was stuck in and that I was in favour of a break upwards towards 4.9k before the drop to sub 3500$ level is attained. None the less, I did state that, if we broke the 4000$ support, we will be able to see further direction to the downside and that we could not rule out a drop to the downside. I also told you guys that long positions in this current bear market are very risky and those that are conservative should stick with shorting from tops as there is more momentum to the downside currently for bitcoin . The rule of thumb for all my priority costumers is that they should look at momentum to the downside as an indicator of when the bull run will come - the quicker we drop to our long term downward targets that we have been stating for months and months, when most traders were looking for long opportunities to 19k.
WEEKLY CHART BREAKDOWN
- We can see that on the weekly, bitcoin has broken downwards and looks like a bearish engulfing candle could be the closing candle for the week - most definitely in fact. Only positive bullish aspect here is that we are ever closer to weekly support on RSI/ROC at 40 level, which has constantly kept prices up on the weekly charts and to date, bitcoin has not broken this level to the downside.
DAILY CHART BREAKDOWN
- Currently, Daily charts are also looking very bearish with a rejection from pre-planned zones of 40 RSI/ROC on the daily. We can see that initial support zone of 3800-850$ could not hold and we saw that price floor broken through as part of the descending wedge (in BLUE). This level is now a ceiling and we can comfortably say that we can move our major ceiling area from 4.9k to now 3,850-3950 (with maximum spikes to 4150$ on BITFINEX - which is traditionally a more bullish exchange).
- Furthermore, we can also deduce that for us to reach support zones on our chart, the bears will need to take price to ATLEAST 3200$ ONCE AGAIN before any attempts to the upside are made the bulls - remember the law of gravity , exactly the same in the markets (what goes up, must come down and vice versa).
4 HOURLY CHART BREAKDOWN
- We are currently right under MA and saw a rejection from MA at 3500$ (which previously was a price floor and not a price ceiling). This rejection also came in line with a rejection from descending wedge , which we broke out of slightly to the downside. We can expect price to stay below this descending wedge structure and it should remain as an indicator for upper limits of price. So, what I mean by this is (as stated in our priority channel), that a break above 3427$ on the 4 hourly charts, will lead to 3600$ and a break above this will lead to 3800-3950$ ceiling (a retest of previous wedge structure. None the less, I firmly believe that resistance zones at 3427$ and 3600$ will hold.
- Therefore, for any CONSERVATIVE BEARS, who are following my advice to the T and want to stay in short positions from shorting at resistance zones, then these levels should be in your head.
- Now, looking at our momentum indicators of RSI and RSI/ROC, we can see that they are both at important resistance levels of 37 (on RSI ) and 40 levels (on RSI/ROC). Thus, I expect a pull back to 3200$ and even worse, 3060$ before any support is expected from the bulls.
- AS A MOMENTUM INDICATOR TO THE DOWNSIDE, we can assume that the 15 level on RSI on 4 hourly to be a support zone , thus shorts are fine up and until this level.
1 HOURLY CHART BREAKDOWN
- The hourly charts are great in pinning your entry and we can see that, in a perfect world, a short entry from 3427$ would have been best. None the less, we can see that due to this downward activity to current price of 3330$, MA on the hourly is now being used as a ceiling. Whereas, moments earlier it could have been confused for price support - this is inline with our top down analysis, as all charts have MA being used as resistance.
- Furthermore, from a more momentum side, we can see that sideway price action has allowed us to reach the infamous 62 RSI/ROC short zone in line with a rejection from previous descending wedges support line. I expect bitcoin on the hourly to pull back to 50 RSI/ROC before any bull activity arrives. This means that we can comfortably target 3200$ (conservative target) to at least form a double bottom at this level. Our more unconservative target would be 3063$, this would confirm my ideas of price wedging in the 3400-3063$ region before the NEXT MAJOR move.
- In the case of history repeating itself, we could move to lows of 2950$ - which, right before the previous bull run was a support zone that gave bitcoin its necessary momentum up to 19k!
MEDIUM TERM BIASIS STILL STAY THE SAME WITH TARGETS TO THE DOWNSIDE AT 2.8K,2.5K AND 2.1K!
HOW CAN I TRADE THIS INFORMATION ?
- If you are to go short at current price, please ensure you place stop loss right above 3427$ (tight) and if you want a loose stop loss, 3470$ would be good.
- Conservative take profit is at previous low of 3200$ and risky take profits lie between 3063$ and 2950$.
ENSURE TO FOLLOW OUR INSTAGRAM PAGE DOWN BELOW AND CLICK THE LINK IN THE BIO FOR OUR VIP CHANNEL TO STAY UP TO DATE!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.