BTC Weekly Analysis 8/6/2018
Updated
Welcome! I've been learning/praciting technical analysis for awhile now and have recently learned a lot about price action. I plan to publish my thoughts at least once a week. My goal is to practice, improve, learn and hopefully share some knowledge with the community. Please feel free to challenge and question me (respectfully). This is also not financial advice in anyway and is meant for entertainment. PSA: Don't look for advice from random people online!
Daily:
This weekly I'm going to start on the daily chart. There was a nasty sell off last week that took BTC from $8281 down to about 6870. Right now, BTC has found good support from Weekly, Daily and 4H bullish order blocks. There is a daily and 4H bullish order block that has held on the chart and both have EQs over 6800. Generally you want to see the upper half of an order block hold up to maintain support. For the last few days BTC has been range bound between last week's close on the top side and last week's low below. The top side also has confluence with the May low and the lower portion of the range has confluence with the order blocks mentioned above.
4H:
BTC has found support at the 2 significant swing lows in the order blocks I mentioned. A rally from here would that sets a higher swing high on the 4H or daily would be nice to see. If BTC is unable to do this look for a deeper test of support or breakdown of support in the 6800 range entirely. A close below 6800 is probably going to kill this recent rally and might bring fresh lows for BTC.
Trade Scenario 1:
I'd only look for this if it becomes available soon. I would not take this trade if we move up from here first and try to test prior resistance. I'm looking for a small retrace before testing resistance to make this trade.
Trade Scenario 2:
I like the idea of shorting around $7070. It has confluence with May low, bearish order block and 70% retrace of this leg down on hourly.
Daily:
This weekly I'm going to start on the daily chart. There was a nasty sell off last week that took BTC from $8281 down to about 6870. Right now, BTC has found good support from Weekly, Daily and 4H bullish order blocks. There is a daily and 4H bullish order block that has held on the chart and both have EQs over 6800. Generally you want to see the upper half of an order block hold up to maintain support. For the last few days BTC has been range bound between last week's close on the top side and last week's low below. The top side also has confluence with the May low and the lower portion of the range has confluence with the order blocks mentioned above.
4H:
BTC has found support at the 2 significant swing lows in the order blocks I mentioned. A rally from here would that sets a higher swing high on the 4H or daily would be nice to see. If BTC is unable to do this look for a deeper test of support or breakdown of support in the 6800 range entirely. A close below 6800 is probably going to kill this recent rally and might bring fresh lows for BTC.
Trade Scenario 1:
I'd only look for this if it becomes available soon. I would not take this trade if we move up from here first and try to test prior resistance. I'm looking for a small retrace before testing resistance to make this trade.
Trade Scenario 2:
I like the idea of shorting around $7070. It has confluence with May low, bearish order block and 70% retrace of this leg down on hourly.
Comment
I was short from 7116 but I have since gone long around 7060. It looks like prior resistance here may turn into support. Price action looking supportive/bullish. Tight stop loss.
Comment
Higher low on retrace: Still resistance above that has been tested numerous times but consolidating right below it. Sign of strength in my opinion.
Comment
Updated Chart: BTC crashes and burns. I'm looking to short around 6780-6860 if we retest those levels. We had good support there previously so I wouldn't be surprised if it flips to strong resistance on a retest. If you are really brave you can probably scalp a short in the 6550-6620 range on a retest with a 6400 target but I'd only play that range once.
Comment
Possible set up for a long on LTF. Definitely would take profit quick if it hits and look for more short set ups: Comment
Target hit and in the trade. Took 1/2 my position off around 6480 and moved stop up near low of down move(just below 6300). I'll close out around 6700-6800 and may look for shorts at that point. See what happens.
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