Short

Here comes the final nail

Updated

In one of my previous charts, I mentioned that whether or not we drop back into the triangle we escaped from a few weeks ago will determine whether the rest of this year will be a bull market or if it'll be a continuation of the bear market. Well, unfortunately we not only dropped back inside the triangle but we actually broke through the bottom, at least for a short period of time. That short period however was enough to create the neckline for a H&S formation, the right shoulder of which we are about to form as we get rejected by the top of the triangle we had previously escaped. Once we bounce off that top and drop back down to the neckline, there are no supports preventing a fast drop to our previous low, at around 5800. Then a skip, hop and a jump to a new low... Hold onto your hats, this ride is about to get bumpy.

Note

It's looking more and more like we'll be seeing an extended right shoulder. I'm expecting the price to bounce around the yellow triangle, possibly the green triangle for the next couple of days. Should the price break out of current resistance and make it into the blue triangle, then the bulls might have a fighting chance to make a move, but it's probably a long shot at best. One thing to note I think is that the longer the right shoulder extends, the farther and more forceful the eventual fall. In either case, we'll probably see a bounce off of the orange line, creating yet another right shoulder to complete a slanted HS, bringing us below the "point of no return", or the solid black line aka below the lowest low of the year. BTC will eventually recover, but once past that point, we'll be in a bear market for the remainder of the year and probably longer. I suspect actually, that the price will reach $1200 range before all is said and done.

Note

Potential Inverse HS forming - it will complete if the price comes up to about $6350 and stays there:

Note

The bulls tried but ultimately failed to complete the Inverse HS. The neckline of that Inverse HS, which could also be thought of as the top of the triangle pictured, now becomes an additional layer of resistance. Meaning that the chances of the bulls keeping the price above $6300 has gotten that much harder, at least without taking a hard drop first:

Note

as you can see, it was like hitting a brick wall...:

NTEC

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