Current Wyckoff Ideas for BTC
Updated
We just saw a weaker rally as expected per my previous post.
A few bullish characteristics to note: We found support on the daily 10 EMA:
and we found support on the bottom of the macro trading range:
These conditions provided the opportunity for another push upward which I believe has already taken place. What's next for this daily chart?
If we are looking at the current daily TR on the Bitmex chart, our bias seems to be accumulation. With this idea in mind, where are we in this TR?
Option 1: We are in in the Phase D rally, and have jumped the creek, passed the BUEC, and are on our way up and out of the TR. If this is true, we need to fulfill the following:
1) Break through the top of the TR and find support on top of the TR
2) The support on the TR will serve as a shallow BU action and a base from which to rally
Option 2: We still could be in Phase D and this is just a temporary pause before a stronger break out and follow through on option 1. In this case we may see the following:
1) A rejection of the teal box ie wick into it, but not close in or above it.
2) More testing to the downside on low to moderate volume.
3) Find support on the ST line (red dotted line)
Option 3: This could be an upthrust type action that will need more testing, indicating that we may still be in Phase B and will see more testing of the lower half of the TR. Therefore:
1) A rejection of the teal box ie wick into it, but not close in or above it.
2) More testing to the downside on moderate to higher volume.
3) Find support on the bottom of the TR or break below it in another "spring" type action
*Option 3 may also change our bias to distribution depending on how it plays out.
The current price and volume action is leaning towards option 2. I've been long here, but will place my stops a bit under the ST line to try and avoid getting shaken out.
A few bullish characteristics to note: We found support on the daily 10 EMA:
and we found support on the bottom of the macro trading range:
These conditions provided the opportunity for another push upward which I believe has already taken place. What's next for this daily chart?
If we are looking at the current daily TR on the Bitmex chart, our bias seems to be accumulation. With this idea in mind, where are we in this TR?
Option 1: We are in in the Phase D rally, and have jumped the creek, passed the BUEC, and are on our way up and out of the TR. If this is true, we need to fulfill the following:
1) Break through the top of the TR and find support on top of the TR
2) The support on the TR will serve as a shallow BU action and a base from which to rally
Option 2: We still could be in Phase D and this is just a temporary pause before a stronger break out and follow through on option 1. In this case we may see the following:
1) A rejection of the teal box ie wick into it, but not close in or above it.
2) More testing to the downside on low to moderate volume.
3) Find support on the ST line (red dotted line)
Option 3: This could be an upthrust type action that will need more testing, indicating that we may still be in Phase B and will see more testing of the lower half of the TR. Therefore:
1) A rejection of the teal box ie wick into it, but not close in or above it.
2) More testing to the downside on moderate to higher volume.
3) Find support on the bottom of the TR or break below it in another "spring" type action
*Option 3 may also change our bias to distribution depending on how it plays out.
The current price and volume action is leaning towards option 2. I've been long here, but will place my stops a bit under the ST line to try and avoid getting shaken out.
Comment
Support on the ST line would indicate an LPS.Comment
Closed longs at 6600. Waiting for support to show as discussed earlier.Comment
Target Complete
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