One Last Hunt Before It Happens
Updated
The time has come. It is the decision time not only for Bitcoin but I believe for alt-coins too. For a trailer of the upcoming ideas and TA: it is probably the time for Bitcoin to decide which direction to take. But before it takes a route to any of these directions, there seems to be a last hunt. It is not a stop-loss hunt but more of a hunt for over-excitement in the market for each direction. If Bitcoin is about to make new highs, there will be a last test of a major support before it goes higher to 11,800-12,000 range. On the other scenario, if it's over for Bitcoin rise, there will be a last test of a major resistance before it drops further to 9,500-10,000 range.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4EJ2JEdy/
Short On the image below, start with the volume bars and see how volume diminishes on each try to make new highs. First it was rejected from 14,000, followed by a rejection from 13,000 and lastly it wasn't able to settle above 12,000. Tops are getting smaller as the volume decreases. This is one alarming signal to be cautious. Long-1 Unless R1 trend line is broken, we don't have strong proof for bull side. However, price was never able to consolidate between R1-R2 trend lines after it breaks above R2 trend line. This is not the case for the last run to 12,000. Price once again got rejected from R1 trend line but this time it was able to find support from R2-trend line. This is also a point to watch out to determine overall position on Bitcoin, rather it is going to be a fall stage on long term or it does act as a strong support to push the prices way above where it is now. So, this might be more consolidation before another bull rally.
Key Levels to Watch Out for a Long/Short Position
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vMwxqaSl/
I am not considering going long in near future because of the fact that we broke below the orange triangle and this break will have some consequences in near future. So it is more possible to see a downward movement rather than an upward one. However, this doesn't mean that the price cannot jump to 12,000 range again but the probability of this happening is too low to take the risk of a long trade. To reduce the risk of a possible long position, it is better to wait for price to find support between 10,750-10,900 range. 10,750 range may be used as a stop-loss for this long. But first, I need to see that this range is acting as a support. If I also see a bullish divergence on 15m or 1h chart, I may increase the size of my long position. But if price first tries to break above 12,000 but fails and then comes back to 10,800 range, I will not take the long.
If price tries to push 11,800 range and gets weak to break through, I will take a short position, probably with more volume than the long position volume I am considering to take. However, as in the long position case, price increase should happen first. If price first goes to 10,800 range and finds support and then comes to 11,800-12,000. I will not take the short.
Three key price levels to watch out for are from MAs. 50MA and 100MA are key levels. I am more incline to say that 50MA will be broken and 100MA will be the main support. These levels correspond to 10,900 and 9,6000 respectively. 3rd key price point is the MA21 on weekly. You can check MA21 on historical data when Bitcoin was on a bull market. Bitcoin tends to find support from MA21 on weekly but it is too early to speculate about this price level which currently sits at 8,400.
Long Entry: 10,800-10,900 range is the entry if price directly drops to this level before it tries to break above 12,000 again. Stop-loss is around 10,700 with a target price 11,700.
Short Entries: I will have 3 different entries for my short positions. I will keep on shorting Bitcoin until it goes to 12,050 range since I am more keen to believe that Bitcoin drop will stretch way further than this, probably below 11,000. if it goes below 10,000, the retracement may go even down to 8,500 range which seems quite possible to me. 1st entry point: 11,625-11,725 range and this will be the point where I put majority of the volume, 2nd entry point: 11,975, and 3rd entry point: 12,050. I will still keep considerable amount of volume to go short on 12,400 range since this is the range that has to be broken if Bitcoin wants to settle above 12,000. In any case, when price reaches this level, there will be some retracement for me to determine if the short idea is failed and I should close my position. This retracement may find support above 12,000 and this is the reason why I keep majority of my short orders about 12,400 range. In any case, I want to close my short with some profit.
Lastly, I have 2 major points to believe that a Bitcoin drop is more probable. First, on the bigger picture, all I see is exhaustion. Exhaustion in the price and more importantly in the volume. Bitcoin can trick you quite easily and we may see huge volume, coming out of nowhere but for now, we don't have such volume to make me believe that last run-ups were getting stronger in that sense. Second and more loose idea is that Goldman Sachs has revealed their expectations on the next Bitcoin move and it shows a 11,390 target price. Their plan worked fine about the price finding support about 11,000 however these kind of news about the market, I believe, creates more bias towards the opposite direction. I am more tend to take the opposite direction than what these guys are taking/telling you that they took.
Goldman Sachs news: coindesk.com/goldman-sachs-analysts-note-says-nows-a-good-time-to-buy-bitcoin
Good luck on your trades!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4EJ2JEdy/
Short On the image below, start with the volume bars and see how volume diminishes on each try to make new highs. First it was rejected from 14,000, followed by a rejection from 13,000 and lastly it wasn't able to settle above 12,000. Tops are getting smaller as the volume decreases. This is one alarming signal to be cautious. Long-1 Unless R1 trend line is broken, we don't have strong proof for bull side. However, price was never able to consolidate between R1-R2 trend lines after it breaks above R2 trend line. This is not the case for the last run to 12,000. Price once again got rejected from R1 trend line but this time it was able to find support from R2-trend line. This is also a point to watch out to determine overall position on Bitcoin, rather it is going to be a fall stage on long term or it does act as a strong support to push the prices way above where it is now. So, this might be more consolidation before another bull rally.
Key Levels to Watch Out for a Long/Short Position
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vMwxqaSl/
I am not considering going long in near future because of the fact that we broke below the orange triangle and this break will have some consequences in near future. So it is more possible to see a downward movement rather than an upward one. However, this doesn't mean that the price cannot jump to 12,000 range again but the probability of this happening is too low to take the risk of a long trade. To reduce the risk of a possible long position, it is better to wait for price to find support between 10,750-10,900 range. 10,750 range may be used as a stop-loss for this long. But first, I need to see that this range is acting as a support. If I also see a bullish divergence on 15m or 1h chart, I may increase the size of my long position. But if price first tries to break above 12,000 but fails and then comes back to 10,800 range, I will not take the long.
If price tries to push 11,800 range and gets weak to break through, I will take a short position, probably with more volume than the long position volume I am considering to take. However, as in the long position case, price increase should happen first. If price first goes to 10,800 range and finds support and then comes to 11,800-12,000. I will not take the short.
Three key price levels to watch out for are from MAs. 50MA and 100MA are key levels. I am more incline to say that 50MA will be broken and 100MA will be the main support. These levels correspond to 10,900 and 9,6000 respectively. 3rd key price point is the MA21 on weekly. You can check MA21 on historical data when Bitcoin was on a bull market. Bitcoin tends to find support from MA21 on weekly but it is too early to speculate about this price level which currently sits at 8,400.
Long Entry: 10,800-10,900 range is the entry if price directly drops to this level before it tries to break above 12,000 again. Stop-loss is around 10,700 with a target price 11,700.
Short Entries: I will have 3 different entries for my short positions. I will keep on shorting Bitcoin until it goes to 12,050 range since I am more keen to believe that Bitcoin drop will stretch way further than this, probably below 11,000. if it goes below 10,000, the retracement may go even down to 8,500 range which seems quite possible to me. 1st entry point: 11,625-11,725 range and this will be the point where I put majority of the volume, 2nd entry point: 11,975, and 3rd entry point: 12,050. I will still keep considerable amount of volume to go short on 12,400 range since this is the range that has to be broken if Bitcoin wants to settle above 12,000. In any case, when price reaches this level, there will be some retracement for me to determine if the short idea is failed and I should close my position. This retracement may find support above 12,000 and this is the reason why I keep majority of my short orders about 12,400 range. In any case, I want to close my short with some profit.
Lastly, I have 2 major points to believe that a Bitcoin drop is more probable. First, on the bigger picture, all I see is exhaustion. Exhaustion in the price and more importantly in the volume. Bitcoin can trick you quite easily and we may see huge volume, coming out of nowhere but for now, we don't have such volume to make me believe that last run-ups were getting stronger in that sense. Second and more loose idea is that Goldman Sachs has revealed their expectations on the next Bitcoin move and it shows a 11,390 target price. Their plan worked fine about the price finding support about 11,000 however these kind of news about the market, I believe, creates more bias towards the opposite direction. I am more tend to take the opposite direction than what these guys are taking/telling you that they took.
Goldman Sachs news: coindesk.com/goldman-sachs-analysts-note-says-nows-a-good-time-to-buy-bitcoin
Good luck on your trades!
Trade active
For now, it seems like a nice entry. My long call was covering the range between 10,750-10,900. I will consider adding some more position if it drops down to 10,650.Note
If the price can't go above 10,940, I may close my long with some profit to wait for a re-entry around 10,650.Trade closed manually
Trade is closed at 10,924Note
10,820 seems to hold strong. For getting lower, we should first break below this level.
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