Hello Lads and Ladies,
Welcome back to TJ's TA sessions. This time I am introducing a new format that I want to try out to make it more consistent and easier to digest. - The Daily BTC Update
What happened in the last 24h?
In the last 24h we saw some decent moves. We got rejected at 4.4k pretty strong but confirmed 3.8k as a good support. The 3950 range had really a lot of volatility.
We closed the daily at 3972 which was rather bullish and could be interpreted as a bearish engulfing, yet in my eyes this was a normal rejection of 4.4k and a divergence on smaller timeframes that caused this.
Applying fibs from the bottom wick to the top wick, we have closed above 50% and almost touched 61.8%. Depending on what wick you like setting it, it was a perfect 61.8% retrace after a push.
Most important S/R right now?
3550 3666 3820 3950 4123 4169 4382 4658
Gained lost %?
Since the opening of the new daily, we wicked down -1.59%, but gained 5.5%
MarketCap?
Total MarektCap is 136 Billion
Of wich BTC is 73 Billion
With a Dominance of 53.7%
Volatility?
The 30d avg Volatility is 5.36%
Shorts/Longs?
Shorts - 33.5k (danger-zone)
Longs - 27.4k (solid)
Funding?
The last 3 funding rates added -> -0.28%
Momentum?
The daily Momentum is rising slowly, yet from a bearish into a bullish one.
Volume?
The Volume has been decreasing since the last two new yearly lows, we are under the MA of it, which tends to brings us back up and shoot over it.
-> Big Volume Incoming
RSI/StochRSI levels?
RSI - 34.8 (low)
StochRSI (trending up)
K(blue) - 60
D(orange) - 28.8
Divergences?
Everything is moving up, no divergences to see here at this moment.
Market Structure?
As many have seen it before, we are seeming to form an inverted Head and Shoulders, yet I am agreeing with other experienced traders that it is not a correct iHnS. It is more an uptrend, 61.8% bounce and what seems be forming, Elliot waves. At least we are going for an ABC correction after the dump, where we should have completed A and B already.
Overall?
The trend is up, we have bullish signs everywhere. We had a humungous drop from wich we still need to recover.
I see the SHORTS forming a rising wedge and breaking anytime soon. This would agree with all the other bullish signs, like the iHnS, ABC correction, uptrend, due for a volume breakout and the insanely high funding rates in the last days.
What do we want?
We want a strong close above yesterdays open and in the best case a close above 4382.
Position?
As we saw that the 3820 is a solid intermediate support and we are overwhelmed with bullish signs, I am in a long position, with staggers down to that level and a SL below 3800.
TPs are right now set every 50$ 5% of my position. On S/R is also good but rather riskier at this moment.
Entry at 4.1 is ok
Entry at 4 is good
Entry below 4 is very good
Let me know in the comments if you like the infos and want to see it daily.
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Cheers, TJ