I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Previous analysis:“Furthermore I was really expecting a retest of the 8 day MA before selling off further. Now it is looking like the price action from yesterday whipsawed me out of my long and into a short at exactly the wrong time.” Position: Short ETHBTC from 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short BCHBTC from 0.04628 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434
Patterns: Short ETH:USD from $118.35 | Short ETHBTC from 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short BCHBTC from 0.04628 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,626 - $3,682 | R: $3,800 BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to get overbought. I have an alert at 36,000. Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.0023% (wasn’t expected that) Short term trend (4 day MA): Continue to close below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Turning down sharply from that last move Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Rolled over Overall trend: If I would have traded entirely based on Consensio then I would still be in my entire short position from $6,350. Instead I got scared out and into a long at $4,000 - $4,200 due to my discretion. Very valuable learning lesson for me. Highly recommend “Deep Dive Into Consensio” which I am going to completely violate again with my plan below. Volume: Looking at the 4h and it was ~4X average on that last breakdown. FIB’s: (Start at $1,000 and connect to ATH’) 0.886 = $3,164 | 0.786 = $5,805 Candlestick analysis: Took out that weird pattern from yesterday. Ichimoku Cloud: Pretty worthless right now. Interested in the 1h cloud holding as resistance. TD’ Sequential: On a red 9 that looks like it will end up perfected but it is far too early to say that. Visible Range: If we breakdown $4,000 then there should be significant support at $3,750. If we breakdown that area then I would expect a fall to $3,100 Price action: 24h: 13.57% - I started doing this when I noticed how rare it is for BTC to move much more than 10% in a day. This is a strong indicator for me and a great way to make sure you don’t enter after the move already happened Bollinger Bands: Closed right on the bottom band Trendline: Currently testing trend support on the 4h Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Da bears Used to watch fractals, like parabolic SAR’s much better when markets are volatile: SAR = $5,023 RSI: If it wasn’t for the red 9 this would be set up so sweet for a bull div’ right into my $3,000 price target Stochastic: Getting stuck to the bottom. According to CryptoCore this is when BTC makes it’s biggest moves.
Summary: I would love it if somebody went back through my posts and found the last one tagged with a 'long' because I know it's been a while. Preparing for something for this long feels good and it should. I am getting very excited for a potential bottom in the next 1-3 days.
This market is starting to look ripe for capitulation. I really don’t know how to call that other than a sense that I feel and a high volume dragonfly / hammer that I see.
I posted this Bubble Comparison on October 16th and it is exactly what I have been preparing for:
1) Price falls -44.59% after horizontal support breakdown. 2) Bottom of wick is -30% from the bottom of the body -$2,718 X 1.3 = $3,533 3) Bottom of body creates support for another year of consolidation 4) Prior support becomes resistance ($6,000 - $6,150)
I have orders at $2,718 - $3,001 to buy back spot but it is for ~5% of my portfolio and I might decide to exit at breakeven the first chance I get (like my $4,225 buy). Therefore I would not suggest doing the same unless you have a clear understanding of your risk and time horizon.
In the meantime I am watching alts closely and continuing to add to my positions. When BTC does bounce, IT WILL BOUNCE FROM SOMEWHERE, then alts are going to melt faster than Frosty the snowman'.
Just keep in mind that phase 1 waits at $1,000 and we could return there before this move is over. I would personally love that. It would complete the hyperwave (thus allowing for a new one to start), fill that ugly gap at ~$1,400 that has had me worried since $5,000 in 2017.
Scaling into Bitcoin under $4,000 with ~15% - 33% of your net worth could be the best decision you have ever made. And if it isn’t then the risk is worth the reward. If you time horizon is > 2 years and you know that you have the ability' to hold through a loss / lose it all.
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