Short

Short BTCUSD to 4800

Updated

The market turned and our last trade was profitable. We will now retest 4800 with a pull back, possibly as deep as 4600 or 4400. From there we will most likely re-bounce as the D1 market is still bullish back up to test 6000 and possibly north to 8000.

Of course there could be some turbulence as we pass through our bull Kumo on the H2-4 spans as during these times we will have two new hard forks going on. However, having seen how the market reacted to China and Russia news we should not be too fearful.

We could see a short lived re-bounce back up to 5300 once we've passed south of that as outlined with black arrows versus red arrows in the chart, taking into account Kijun- and Tenkan-sen levels if we go south of Tenkan-sen or not. That makes stop loss forced to be north of where we are now.

As always, trading is probabilistic and the above is the most likely scenarios. Stop losses and no emotions are your friends.

Note

Zooming in on the HR1 chart and deeper reveals the price action where in the next hours we could see a small re-bounce as we are tracing on the Senkou span outlining the south side of our bullish Kumo cloud:

...but, the market is selling and all younger charts are bearish, so after we clear the tracing (which we can understand as H2-4 turbulence crossing through bullish Kumos) its going south.

Note

For example on our M30 chart we went too deep south as folks panicked and sold out, bringing us too far away from equilibrium as evidenced by Tenkan-sen (orange) and we re-bounch back up until shorter term price action will push us back down from M15 and below.

Swiss clockwork - Ichimoku Ninjas :-)

Note

As mentioned - the next hours of turbulence going through H2-4 charts:

Note

Entering this trade should be done at about 5640 or so, depending on how much risk we want to take as we should expect price action to trace the south side of the Kumo:

If we want to be super safe we should wait until south of the H1 Kumo which is at 5300.

Note

First stop reached at 5300 - now its a question if we bounce back up or crash further through... daily we met the fast moving average (Tenkan-sen, orange line) so there's more equilibrium now but still I'd like to see we meet the slow moving average as well (Kijun-sen blue line):

Note

We are very clear to break through the H3 chart supporting cloud with down wards pressure from all other lower time scales on RSI/MACD and other oscillators. If and when we break through we will drop down to 5130 about where the H4 lower edge of the Kumo is tracing:

The H4 shows support at 5130:

...and after that its the test down to 4800 or possibly deeper, let's see when we cross the above.

Trade closed: target reached

and 7000 finally came. And it went as predicted, down, up, down, UP

bernino

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.