Magical Money called USDT and Bakkt Futures - THEORY!
Updated
On this chart we are looking at volume comparison between USD and USDT (blue is USD - red is USDT). Look how USDT overcame USD in volume and as a long term participant in Crypto market this is something I don't really like.
To me it seems that we are seeing USDT driven price pump that will push the price as high as possible before Bakkt Futures go live in couple of weeks.. All of that coincidentally as we are nearing crucial monthly resistance levels and Fib retracements.
Let's start thinking as an institution: Shorting is as profitable as buying and holding the asset and if we have an opportunity to profit from dumping the market then ride the wave up again why would we skip that opportunity, right? Alsoo if you are an institution will you buy almost at ATH level or would you like to buy something when price is uber lower? If I was an institution I would definitely buy at a discount, I am 100% sure you would do the same as well. With Bakkt Futures going live soon, we will have more institutional players going in and doing exactly the things I wrote above. So we might see history repeat itself and see CME Futures Round 2 (or if you like it more - repeating of December 2017)
I genuinely think that market amongst retail traders reached euphoria stage, the stage where your greed is taking over your rational decisions and that people are not realizing the profits because they think price will go much higher. Well this euphoria time is the perfect time for institutions to wipe all of them out in a matter of weeks, then slowly start accumulating the asset on a discounted price and then in May 2020 when halving occurs start actual bull run.
Remember that this is just a theory, but it makes a lot of sense if you ask me. Let me know what you think about it.
To me it seems that we are seeing USDT driven price pump that will push the price as high as possible before Bakkt Futures go live in couple of weeks.. All of that coincidentally as we are nearing crucial monthly resistance levels and Fib retracements.
Let's start thinking as an institution: Shorting is as profitable as buying and holding the asset and if we have an opportunity to profit from dumping the market then ride the wave up again why would we skip that opportunity, right? Alsoo if you are an institution will you buy almost at ATH level or would you like to buy something when price is uber lower? If I was an institution I would definitely buy at a discount, I am 100% sure you would do the same as well. With Bakkt Futures going live soon, we will have more institutional players going in and doing exactly the things I wrote above. So we might see history repeat itself and see CME Futures Round 2 (or if you like it more - repeating of December 2017)
I genuinely think that market amongst retail traders reached euphoria stage, the stage where your greed is taking over your rational decisions and that people are not realizing the profits because they think price will go much higher. Well this euphoria time is the perfect time for institutions to wipe all of them out in a matter of weeks, then slowly start accumulating the asset on a discounted price and then in May 2020 when halving occurs start actual bull run.
Remember that this is just a theory, but it makes a lot of sense if you ask me. Let me know what you think about it.
Note
This is what I meant by monthly resistance levels and Fib retracements. Whole yellowish area between 50% and 61.8% Fib is huge monthly and weekly resistance zone. We could also see the push towards 16.5k which is 78.6% Fib level, although it is unlikely we should keep this level in mind. As said above I already think we have enough euphoria with all of those green candles, but if it's not enough for the big players we will see that 16.5k, anyhow more on that later.
Note
So price did go through 50% Fib and for a slight while also through 61.8% Fib, also touched monthly high close price almost to the dollar and then we saw sharp decline in a matter of 15 minutes.
We have 3 more days until monthly closes. If we see price go down by another $1.000 we will close the monthly below $11.600 which is VERY important level and that would signal bearish 2nd half of the year. IF we indeed see that kind of a close we could push towards
13K one more time, but I honestly doubt it.On the flipside if on lower time frames $11.600 starts holding as support, $16.500 is still in play.
Note
The ones who pump are the ones who dump, look at the Tether overplaying real USD volume in today's candle... Magnificent!
Note
Well, last 2 weekly candles closed below $11.600 and we are now seeing pullback towards recent highs which should indicate new drop.Here's new technical analysis :
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