BTC Analysis 5/14/2020
Updated
Hey guys wanted to do a little update on BTC, last few days have been exciting...
After breaking that long term downtrend, we just tapped 10100 before plummeting over 15%, coming to rest around 8200. This seemed to me like a last ditch effort by whales to capitalize on pre-halving FOMO before shorting it back down to resistance. They may have had lower targets, but there was a big liquidity grab at the 8200 levels and BTC traded in a pretty tight range between 8400 and 8900 for a while before again breaking to the upside. Action like this is making me more bullish every day, as bears may be exhausted and the major dip we saw in March could have been a shake-out of longs in preparation for a big upside move.
BTC has been steadily climbing in a Rising Channel since the dip to 8200, and last night touched the top of the channel for the 3rd time at nearly 10k before dropping again. It seems to me another touch of the top would put us right back into the 10100 area. There are two ways I am looking to play this...
Bullish Scenario:
We touch 10100, and one of two things happens. We either break out above it, in which case our next immediate target is about 10550. This would be a retest of the yearly high and the breakout point for the next bull run. A touch and drop back down to 9.4-9.5 would be a healthy move, as it would be a retest of the downtrend resistance now acting as support. A bounce at this zone would have me adding to my long position in preparation for a big breakout past 10600.
We could also possibly see it break 10100, and then break 10600 with huge volume which would send us straight into a massive rally. So keeping a close eye on those two levels to see how price reacts.
Bearish Scenario:
My bearish scenario would be yet another test of 10100 (top of rising channel), and a fail to break through. A failure at this price plus a bearish divergence on RSI would have me open a short position to hedge my net long position. This would put us on target to retest our support zones at 9400, 8700, and 8250. A failure to find support at any of these would likely cause us another drop to retest a big support around 7600. A breakdown from here is very bad news for bulls, and could essentially see us retest our lows in the 3.8-5k area.
So right now we seem to be at a big decision. Do bulls commit and we rally to new yearly highs? Or do the bears hold their ground and send us back into the ground?
Personally, the longer BTC holds these current prices, the more bullish I get. Next few days could get exciting, and I will continue to update as things progress...
Take Care
After breaking that long term downtrend, we just tapped 10100 before plummeting over 15%, coming to rest around 8200. This seemed to me like a last ditch effort by whales to capitalize on pre-halving FOMO before shorting it back down to resistance. They may have had lower targets, but there was a big liquidity grab at the 8200 levels and BTC traded in a pretty tight range between 8400 and 8900 for a while before again breaking to the upside. Action like this is making me more bullish every day, as bears may be exhausted and the major dip we saw in March could have been a shake-out of longs in preparation for a big upside move.
BTC has been steadily climbing in a Rising Channel since the dip to 8200, and last night touched the top of the channel for the 3rd time at nearly 10k before dropping again. It seems to me another touch of the top would put us right back into the 10100 area. There are two ways I am looking to play this...
Bullish Scenario:
We touch 10100, and one of two things happens. We either break out above it, in which case our next immediate target is about 10550. This would be a retest of the yearly high and the breakout point for the next bull run. A touch and drop back down to 9.4-9.5 would be a healthy move, as it would be a retest of the downtrend resistance now acting as support. A bounce at this zone would have me adding to my long position in preparation for a big breakout past 10600.
We could also possibly see it break 10100, and then break 10600 with huge volume which would send us straight into a massive rally. So keeping a close eye on those two levels to see how price reacts.
Bearish Scenario:
My bearish scenario would be yet another test of 10100 (top of rising channel), and a fail to break through. A failure at this price plus a bearish divergence on RSI would have me open a short position to hedge my net long position. This would put us on target to retest our support zones at 9400, 8700, and 8250. A failure to find support at any of these would likely cause us another drop to retest a big support around 7600. A breakdown from here is very bad news for bulls, and could essentially see us retest our lows in the 3.8-5k area.
So right now we seem to be at a big decision. Do bulls commit and we rally to new yearly highs? Or do the bears hold their ground and send us back into the ground?
Personally, the longer BTC holds these current prices, the more bullish I get. Next few days could get exciting, and I will continue to update as things progress...
Take Care
Note
Here is a view of the weekly chart with Fib Retracement Levels. Sitting right at the .382 Fib. Showing potential upside targets for a breakout from previous high
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