Bitcoin Daily Update (day 248)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “If phase 2 doesn't hold then the target is phase 1, based on the rules of Tyler Jenks' hyperwave.” / Short USTD:USD from 0.968 with order at 0.97 to exit.
Patterns: Testing bear trend after bouncing from phase 2 of the hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,338 | R: $6,470 & $6,815
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to fall toward support with no sign of reversal. TD’ indicates 2 days left to the downside
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0166%
Short term trend (3 day MA): Bull
Medium term trend (8 day MA): 8 Crossing 3. If it closes then bullish
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Appears to be flattening out, however if you use the Triple MA Forecast the next three candles are expected to continue to down trend. This is due to a few big green candles falling off from 34 days ago. Can find this indicator for free on trading view.
Overall trend: There next three days will be extremely important to see if we can turn the long term trend up and make all of the trends bullish. For now I still view the overall trend as neutral.
Volume: Starting to pick up ever so slightly. Still doesn’t resemble a bottom (low volatility and high volume) however it is better than nothing.
FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405
Candlestick analysis: Broke through the top of yesterdays hanging man (invalidating it) and today’s today is nearly bullish engulfing (didn’t test below yesterday’s candle) | While typing this the 1h closed a bearish candle with the wick on top > the body
Ichimoku Cloud: Trying to re enter 12h cloud, currently wicking off | 4h shows resistance quickly dissipating.
TD’ Sequential: 4h g4 and 1h g2 show room left to the upside | Daily g5 agrees
Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. If the price closes above $6,789 at any point then that would be very bullish
Price action: 24h: +0.78% | 2w: +0.15% | 1m: -2.17%
Bollinger Bands: Still hasn’t tested the top of the daily band
Trendline: Testing bear trend, watch out for bull trap
Daily Trend: bull
Fractals: Still haven’t broken up fractal at $6,497
RSI: Daily supported above 50 and has created a higher high | Short TF’s are not overbought
Stochastic: Daily and 12h are approaching overbought zones
Summary: This is the most interested I have been in watching the intraday Bitcoin' price action in months. After finding resistance from the bear trend two days ago we went on to create a higher low today (4h chart). The price is currently attempting to create a higher high and if the bulls follow through then that would be a breakthrough of the trendline.
A clean breakthrough would come on high volume and then would have little trouble supporting a throwback (look for dragonfly / hammer of trendline support) which would create another higher low. Will that happen or will the bears hold strong at resistance? At this point I don’t think it is possible for anyone to provide more than a guess. Some made have better guesses than others, however even educated guesses lack subsistence and often do more harm than good. I strive for objectivity and will always avoid making subjective guesses.
During times like this it is very important to stay on the sidelines and wait for further development. If you feel a strong impulse to get into action without a clear understanding of where the price is heading then you should use this time to develop the discipline required to overcome that urge to gamble. Either that, or you could play online poker / blackjack. There is nothing wrong with enjoying the gamble, however if you are trying to be profitable long term then a more professional mindstate is vital.
Professionals are focusing on traditional markets while Bitcoin' figures out which direction it wants to go. At the time of this writing the Republicans have won 42 seats out of the 66 that have been declared. That is a good sign for the US markets as far as I am concerned and the markets responded favorably in the last couple hours of trading. The S&P' looks like it is ready for a strong rally tomorrow.
However I remain convinced that the House of Representatives is the more important election. If the Republicans maintain majority then I strongly expect another 2 hours of a bull run in US equities. Based on the structure of the hyperwave, the next rally would be highly likely propel us into phase 4. If that happens then it will be hard for most to comprehend the potential upside. If want an idea look at Bitcoin's chart in November of 2017. That is where we went from phase 3 to phase 4 and the price proceeded to rally + 250% from prior all times highs.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: “If phase 2 doesn't hold then the target is phase 1, based on the rules of Tyler Jenks' hyperwave.” / Short USTD:USD from 0.968 with order at 0.97 to exit.
Patterns: Testing bear trend after bouncing from phase 2 of the hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,338 | R: $6,470 & $6,815
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to fall toward support with no sign of reversal. TD’ indicates 2 days left to the downside
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0166%
Short term trend (3 day MA): Bull
Medium term trend (8 day MA): 8 Crossing 3. If it closes then bullish
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Appears to be flattening out, however if you use the Triple MA Forecast the next three candles are expected to continue to down trend. This is due to a few big green candles falling off from 34 days ago. Can find this indicator for free on trading view.
Overall trend: There next three days will be extremely important to see if we can turn the long term trend up and make all of the trends bullish. For now I still view the overall trend as neutral.
Volume: Starting to pick up ever so slightly. Still doesn’t resemble a bottom (low volatility and high volume) however it is better than nothing.
FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405
Candlestick analysis: Broke through the top of yesterdays hanging man (invalidating it) and today’s today is nearly bullish engulfing (didn’t test below yesterday’s candle) | While typing this the 1h closed a bearish candle with the wick on top > the body
Ichimoku Cloud: Trying to re enter 12h cloud, currently wicking off | 4h shows resistance quickly dissipating.
TD’ Sequential: 4h g4 and 1h g2 show room left to the upside | Daily g5 agrees
Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. If the price closes above $6,789 at any point then that would be very bullish
Price action: 24h: +0.78% | 2w: +0.15% | 1m: -2.17%
Bollinger Bands: Still hasn’t tested the top of the daily band
Trendline: Testing bear trend, watch out for bull trap
Daily Trend: bull
Fractals: Still haven’t broken up fractal at $6,497
RSI: Daily supported above 50 and has created a higher high | Short TF’s are not overbought
Stochastic: Daily and 12h are approaching overbought zones
Summary: This is the most interested I have been in watching the intraday Bitcoin' price action in months. After finding resistance from the bear trend two days ago we went on to create a higher low today (4h chart). The price is currently attempting to create a higher high and if the bulls follow through then that would be a breakthrough of the trendline.
A clean breakthrough would come on high volume and then would have little trouble supporting a throwback (look for dragonfly / hammer of trendline support) which would create another higher low. Will that happen or will the bears hold strong at resistance? At this point I don’t think it is possible for anyone to provide more than a guess. Some made have better guesses than others, however even educated guesses lack subsistence and often do more harm than good. I strive for objectivity and will always avoid making subjective guesses.
During times like this it is very important to stay on the sidelines and wait for further development. If you feel a strong impulse to get into action without a clear understanding of where the price is heading then you should use this time to develop the discipline required to overcome that urge to gamble. Either that, or you could play online poker / blackjack. There is nothing wrong with enjoying the gamble, however if you are trying to be profitable long term then a more professional mindstate is vital.
Professionals are focusing on traditional markets while Bitcoin' figures out which direction it wants to go. At the time of this writing the Republicans have won 42 seats out of the 66 that have been declared. That is a good sign for the US markets as far as I am concerned and the markets responded favorably in the last couple hours of trading. The S&P' looks like it is ready for a strong rally tomorrow.
However I remain convinced that the House of Representatives is the more important election. If the Republicans maintain majority then I strongly expect another 2 hours of a bull run in US equities. Based on the structure of the hyperwave, the next rally would be highly likely propel us into phase 4. If that happens then it will be hard for most to comprehend the potential upside. If want an idea look at Bitcoin's chart in November of 2017. That is where we went from phase 3 to phase 4 and the price proceeded to rally + 250% from prior all times highs.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.