BTC Analysis 5/28/2020
Updated
Greetings fellow traders. Sorry its been a bit since my last update. Been busy with a few things. But here at last we will take a look at BTC...
So as we can see, bulls and bears have been battling it out for what seems like months now, leading to a lot of chop around the big down trend line. We have had a false breakout, followed by a sudden drop which the bulls quickly ate up. Times like these make it hard to see what happens next, so here are my (as usual) two perspectives...
Generally I have been overall bearish since we first tapped 10k, as there are many indicators on my charts showing this to be a big resistance zone, and so far it has held up. However, either the bears are just laying in wait, filling shorts, or the bulls are really coming out of the woodwork to hold price up this high. At first I was thinking it was the former, playing on the halving FOMO as well as shorting the .618 fib (from the July '19 high to the March '20 low), but now I am not so sure. Its been a bit since the halving, and with price not skyrocketing like many new buyers may have been expecting, I am wondering what bears might be waiting for. Perhaps I am just being impatient, as my Trend Catcher just a few days ago flipped to Short on BTC, but that could very well just be a weak signal for the small correction from the big rally we had, or it could be a sign of the imminent drop. The longer we hang out up here, the less bearish I get.
We have (again) crossed back up over that big down trend (orange line), but the way things have been playing out (choppy, false breakouts, etc), I am not thinking too much of it. We are now trading in a clear triangle, which also looks sorta bull-flag...ish. A break out from here could easily send us back to 10100 to retest the top, and potentially continue the rally up deeper into the golden pocket, topping out at the .705 fib around 10800. What happens here would be critical for what happens next. Any upside continuation would, IMO, pretty much signal the next bull market, as we would then be primed to retest the 14k high from July 2019.
A breakdown from this triangle would lend a lot of weight to the Trend Catcher signal and confirm my bearish inclination. I will post a chart in the comments showing my downside targets should we break down and have the short trade play out.
I gotta say these last few weeks have been mystifying and frankly kind of frustrating, but it helps to remind me that patience is a virtue when it comes to trading. Plus, my Trend Catcher Algo has, for the most part, been having a very successful year so far, so I am not stressing.
If you found this helpful please like this idea and follow me for regular updates and trade ideas
Take care and trade safely.
So as we can see, bulls and bears have been battling it out for what seems like months now, leading to a lot of chop around the big down trend line. We have had a false breakout, followed by a sudden drop which the bulls quickly ate up. Times like these make it hard to see what happens next, so here are my (as usual) two perspectives...
Generally I have been overall bearish since we first tapped 10k, as there are many indicators on my charts showing this to be a big resistance zone, and so far it has held up. However, either the bears are just laying in wait, filling shorts, or the bulls are really coming out of the woodwork to hold price up this high. At first I was thinking it was the former, playing on the halving FOMO as well as shorting the .618 fib (from the July '19 high to the March '20 low), but now I am not so sure. Its been a bit since the halving, and with price not skyrocketing like many new buyers may have been expecting, I am wondering what bears might be waiting for. Perhaps I am just being impatient, as my Trend Catcher just a few days ago flipped to Short on BTC, but that could very well just be a weak signal for the small correction from the big rally we had, or it could be a sign of the imminent drop. The longer we hang out up here, the less bearish I get.
We have (again) crossed back up over that big down trend (orange line), but the way things have been playing out (choppy, false breakouts, etc), I am not thinking too much of it. We are now trading in a clear triangle, which also looks sorta bull-flag...ish. A break out from here could easily send us back to 10100 to retest the top, and potentially continue the rally up deeper into the golden pocket, topping out at the .705 fib around 10800. What happens here would be critical for what happens next. Any upside continuation would, IMO, pretty much signal the next bull market, as we would then be primed to retest the 14k high from July 2019.
A breakdown from this triangle would lend a lot of weight to the Trend Catcher signal and confirm my bearish inclination. I will post a chart in the comments showing my downside targets should we break down and have the short trade play out.
I gotta say these last few weeks have been mystifying and frankly kind of frustrating, but it helps to remind me that patience is a virtue when it comes to trading. Plus, my Trend Catcher Algo has, for the most part, been having a very successful year so far, so I am not stressing.
If you found this helpful please like this idea and follow me for regular updates and trade ideas
Take care and trade safely.
Note
Here are my downside targets for the short trade...
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