BitcoinLong
BTC/USD – End of bear market 2018 – analysis of upcoming rally
Updated
I'm calling the end of the 2018 bear market here. It seems that the current narrative for the upturn in the market is the slow short squeeze that is now taking place, and which has great potential.
1. In the chart you can see that we are now probably forming a bullish crossover of the (blue) 50-day MA and (red) 100-day MA – for the first time in 2018.
2. When the short squeeze continues we will probably see a golden (bullish) crossover of the (blue) 50-day MA and (orange) 200-day MA somewhere mid to end September 2018.
3. The next big thing will then be testing and crossing the 50-week (roughly 1-year) MA, which is the green line in this chart, and which currently sits around 8,500. As you can see in the chart, when the market sold off massively in February 2018, BTC price first found support at the (orange) 200-day MA, but when that support broke the price found support above the (green) 50-week MA. Since then this green line has been massive resistance. So, breaking this line to the upside will be a massive thing.
4. After that we would probably see a test of the 0.382 Fibonacci resistance area around 11,300.
I’m still incrementally adding to my long position, because I don’t think it’s too late at all. I think that in a few months from now we will consider any price below 8,500 (or even 10,000 for that matter) a great opportunity for long term buy and hodl.
Best of luck with your trading/investing.
blue MA line: 50-day MA
red MA line: 100-day MA
orange MA line: 200-day MA
green MA line: 50-week (roughly 1 year) MA
1. In the chart you can see that we are now probably forming a bullish crossover of the (blue) 50-day MA and (red) 100-day MA – for the first time in 2018.
2. When the short squeeze continues we will probably see a golden (bullish) crossover of the (blue) 50-day MA and (orange) 200-day MA somewhere mid to end September 2018.
3. The next big thing will then be testing and crossing the 50-week (roughly 1-year) MA, which is the green line in this chart, and which currently sits around 8,500. As you can see in the chart, when the market sold off massively in February 2018, BTC price first found support at the (orange) 200-day MA, but when that support broke the price found support above the (green) 50-week MA. Since then this green line has been massive resistance. So, breaking this line to the upside will be a massive thing.
4. After that we would probably see a test of the 0.382 Fibonacci resistance area around 11,300.
I’m still incrementally adding to my long position, because I don’t think it’s too late at all. I think that in a few months from now we will consider any price below 8,500 (or even 10,000 for that matter) a great opportunity for long term buy and hodl.
Best of luck with your trading/investing.
blue MA line: 50-day MA
red MA line: 100-day MA
orange MA line: 200-day MA
green MA line: 50-week (roughly 1 year) MA
Note
I recently had some cash on the sideline, ready to invest long term in BTC. I made 2 scenarios: one for when we would break 6,000 support, and one for when we would hold 6,000 support and go up from there. The first scenario - of breaking long-term support - would have been much more profitable for me or for any market participant sitting on cash. Therefore, that was probably not going to happen.This is how I started understanding that I needed to go 100% long.
Note
The 2018 bear market in Bitcoin seems to be turning around and the bottom now seems behind us. The short/long ratio remains very high because shorts are "in denial" about the current rally (high short interest), while BTC price is "climbing a wall of worry" (low long interest).Note
Sir John Templeton famously said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”Note
The 4-hour BTC chart looks very good now. There has been a golden crossover today of the 50/4-hour MA and the 200/4-hour MA, which is very bullish. Very soon (within 2 days) all the major MAs in the 4-hour chart will be in their right working order: the 20 MA above the 50 MA, which will be above the 100 MA, which will be above the 200 MA. All the MAs have already started ascending (rather than descending). In that situation the MAs act as price support, and traders can buy any dips.The next thing will be that the improvement of the 4-hour chart will carry over to the 1-day chart, which will probably take several weeks. This will then become the basis for a sustainable bull market towards the end of 2018 and perhaps beyond.
Note
I think we will see a massive rally very soon. Today is 31 August, last day of the month. The monthly candle is a hammer, which is very bullish. The weekly chart prints a 3-soldier pattern, which is very bullish. The 4-hour chart shows a massive bull flag. So, the charts on all timeframes look very good indeed. If you are a bull it is now time to be 100% long, in my opinion.Note
It may very well be that today has been the last day that we could buy Bitcoin below $ 7,000.Note
Each rally climbs a wall of worry.Trade closed: stop reached
I think I got it wrong. I now think that we will see lower yearly lows.
It is all Fibonacci.
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