Coinbase IPO: Buy the Rumor Sell the News?
Updated
Despite how bullish this crypto run has been; One can't help to question the possibility of the Coinbase IPO release marking an intermittent top. Looking back at the 2017 bull run, the CME Future release marked the top of the of the crypto market for some time; Post-futures release was then followed by several painful years of consolidation. It wasn't until 2020 that 
BTC was finally able to re-claim its ATH crown. Though I do not expect a multi-year bear market after the IPO, I do expect some serious volatility.
Another Buy the Rumor Sell the News?
There is a tremendous amount of hype/evaluations around the Coinbase IPO which draws some concern. To support this, we are roughly 6.5 hours away from the
COIN release and we have a beautiful ABCD setup that just completed itself at $65,000. I have been trading the CD leg of this for the last several days and was personally hoping for this to hit 65k right around release. This early strike increases the probability of a blowing past resistance, but regardless the pattern is worth mentioning.
The ABCD:
ABCD Patterns are the simplest out of all the harmonics to trade. If if the BC retracement of the AB leg lands on the 0.618 we would likely find resistance at the 1.272 of the BC extension. If resistance is found and the pattern completes itself, Target 1 would be the extended trendline of AC leg while the second target would be point C. By placing a stop just over the .1414 would we have over a 1:4 trade to TP1 alone for over a 10% gain. If this would push down to TP2 we would be at around a 20% gain. All while 2-3% loss with fees. I do my best not to counter-trade; but this ratio seems too good to pass up.
I hope you all found this idea interesting and maybe even a little helpful. Cheers
BTC was finally able to re-claim its ATH crown. Though I do not expect a multi-year bear market after the IPO, I do expect some serious volatility. Another Buy the Rumor Sell the News?
There is a tremendous amount of hype/evaluations around the Coinbase IPO which draws some concern. To support this, we are roughly 6.5 hours away from the
COIN release and we have a beautiful ABCD setup that just completed itself at $65,000. I have been trading the CD leg of this for the last several days and was personally hoping for this to hit 65k right around release. This early strike increases the probability of a blowing past resistance, but regardless the pattern is worth mentioning.The ABCD:
ABCD Patterns are the simplest out of all the harmonics to trade. If if the BC retracement of the AB leg lands on the 0.618 we would likely find resistance at the 1.272 of the BC extension. If resistance is found and the pattern completes itself, Target 1 would be the extended trendline of AC leg while the second target would be point C. By placing a stop just over the .1414 would we have over a 1:4 trade to TP1 alone for over a 10% gain. If this would push down to TP2 we would be at around a 20% gain. All while 2-3% loss with fees. I do my best not to counter-trade; but this ratio seems too good to pass up.
I hope you all found this idea interesting and maybe even a little helpful. Cheers
Trade closed: target reached
Target Reached. Hoping BTC starts to form a nice bottom here. Note
Completely undershot this target. 53% correction from the top. Cheers to all of you who held on! I am now mostly exposed on long positions. Hoping to form a nice bottom amidst all this volatility. Note
I am still bullish as long as BTC is able to maintain a daily close above the trendline at ~31.5k.IF this fails; I will expecting some revisits to the previous highs below.
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