An Analysis -- 4/23/2018

Updated

I expect the price to dip downwards somewhere along the rectangles mentioned. I expect this because they represent the upper edges of the current price channel that bitcoin is in. It is possible that it explodes past here, but I consider that unlikely. As for where it ultimately resolves, I am not sure at all. The green rectangle is a conservative and safe enough estimate at the moment, I suppose.

I believe it to be worth mentioning that there are similarities between this current moment and either of the moves to 11.7k, but I am not quite sure what to make of it; The similarity is drawn at how, during all three of those times, the price was located sufficiently close to the kijun-sen and cloud to make a comparison at least somewhat tenable (and, conservatively, we can consider the comparison to be without assuming either a bullish or bearish position, and merely to highlight resistance.).

Psychologically speaking, if I were bullish right now I'd be comfortable closing anywhere on the lowest rectangle.

I don't quite know how likely it is that the rectangles are made quick work of. It does ~feel~ possible. I think that trading is sufficiently emotional for me to give my intuitions significant weight. Then again, I also feel like this could be a 'last hurrah' for bulls.

I am very new to this, so please bear with me.

This is not financial advice, so don't take it as such. Merely an analysis.

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I'm no expert on the RSI, but I don't think this is a good look.

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EDIT: I redrew the rectangles above since I inadvertently deleted them from a previous chart... my apologies.

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EDIT: I'm a horrible writer.
errata:
(i) "(and, conservatively, we can consider the comparison to be without assuming either a bullish or bearish position, and merely to highlight resistance.)"
should read "(and, conservatively, we can make a comparison without assuming either a bullish or bearish position, and merely to highlight resistance.)"

(ii) "Psychologically speaking, if I were bullish right now I'd be comfortable closing anywhere on the lowest rectangle ." ought to read "Psychologically speaking, if I were bullish right now I'd be comfortable closing anywhere on the lower red rectangle"

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Could just go straight up. I recant what I said about not having confidence were I bullish.

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8.7k would be a great place to have closed a short situated from the rectangle (possibly not ideal -- it could obviously go lower, perhaps to the green rectangle -- but you can very well be happy with the guaranteed profit made off an 8% move.).

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It's not looking very bearish. I expect up before down. So I picked good levels pre-empting a downward move but I over-estimated the extent to which it would resolve.

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Honestly, this looks like the best-case bullish scenario and it looks horrible

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TBH I don't see this coming up Milhouse

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Though it ought be mentioned that I have used the RSI incorrectly on occasion. Frankly, I'm going half off-of of intuition. If I was trading at this point, I'd be comfortable letting my intuition lead me to darkness. If I'm fully accountable to it, in both the good and the bad, it'll just refine itself more and more.

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15m cloud shows price testing the area defined by the previous local max only to be rejected fairly strongly and lend itself towards a 15m cloud reversal (which itself signals a downtrend).

What I read from that is that a rejection was sufficiently powerful to send the price into a brief decline. Not a good look by any stretch.

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I flip-flop a lot. Here's a bearflag. I drew it on BitStamp, mostly because I'm too lazy to defile my XBTUSD chart. Anyways, I'm wondering about what'll happen if the tenken-sen dips OUTSIDE the flag. That'd mean short-term price movement is heading downwards, outside the flag, indicating that the flag will break down (and we'll thus dip X-CORE DUDE

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4hr bearish cross on Finex:

Let's see how this goes

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Crossed on Buttfinex'd

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Took awhile. :)

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nkhaldrogo

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