Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 345)
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Consensio: Fully bullish ...
Patterns: Hyperwave fractal , lol
Horizontals: R: $7,300 - $7,500
Trendline: 30 minute channel
Parabolic SAR: $4,497 | $6,719 on 4h, probably a good one to keep an eye on
Futures Curve: Starting to test the backwardation that has been persistent.
Funding Rates: longs pay 0.01%
Shorts: Dumping, but not anywhere near be ‘oversqueezed’
TD’ Sequential: G5
Ichimoku Cloud: Reentering weekly cloud
Relative Strength Index: 88
Average Directional Index: Not overbought, even on 4h
Price Action: 24h: +13.69% | 2w: ++40.65% | +40%
Bollinger Bands: Breaking out from a weekly squeeze
Summary: HOW INCREDIBLE IS THIS?!?!?! I still cannot believe it! This is an unprecedented move! The last time we have had a 3 month candle this big was Q4 of 2017 and we are not even halfway through this quarter!!!
I understand that I was calling for lower prices and largely missed out on this move, but I am still pinching myself, wondering if this is a dream.
We are ripping through resistance that could have taken many months! The higher that the price goes the greater that the chances are that this bear market is over in my mind. If we really are entering the next bull market then I believe there is an extremely high likelihood of six figure prices.
Therefore this is just the very tip of the iceberg and it is very important not to make emotional / reactional decisions.
I currently have about 30% of my overall desired exposure and I do not intend on increasing it right now. It was only 15% before this > 100% increase in price, so I wasn’t necessarily intending to have that much percentage exposed, but that is a difficult ratio manage with an asset this volatile!
I always recommend to have 5% - 10% of personal networth exposed to BTC at a minimum. This has been my suggestion in bull and bear markets. The upside is too great not too. In bear markets I wanted a small percentage and in bull markets I want to have a very high percentage.
When risking a very significant amount of money I want to wait for confirmation opposed to trying to get the best price possible. If this is just the beginning then there is plenty of time to make a long term investment (2+ years).
We are entering the weekly cloud and many indicators are not that overbought, which absolutely blows my mind. The ADX and TD Sequential both show plenty of room to the upside. The RSI could be interpreted that way as well. The funding rates and BTCUSDSHORTS confirms this.
My backup plan was to wait for a golden cross and spending some time above $6,500. This is not how I was expecting to get there. Sometimes even a well thought out backup plan is not enough to prepare for the markets volatility and that is especially true in crypto. Now that we have made it through $6,200 I expect that to be an area that acts as strong support on a pullback. Before today I was looking 20% lower than that. Whatever happens I will scale in by portions and will remain as flexible as possible.
It is up to you to make up your mind and develop / stick to a sound gameplan. Wait for the weekly close before making a decision for a significant amount of money. Whenever it feels like a decision needs to be made right now it is best to wait, at least for a few hours.
For those who are feeling like a deer in the headlights here are TWO OPTIONS:
1) Scale in at 10% of a time. Do this at certain price points, or certain dates. For example: 10% every 2 weeks or every $1,000 in price increase.
2) Another option would be to scale in 1% of the desired position every day for the next 100 days.
My Gameplan
I love using Exponential Moving Averages to buy pullbacks. The 50 and 200 EMA on the 4 hour and daily charts are my favorite. When they are in a fully bullish posture then scaling in when the price tests those areas provides high probability entries. If they rollover / cross into a bearish posture then I will be immediately scaling back out. Until that happens I will be watching the 30 minute channel that is illustrated in the chart above. As long as we stay in / above that channel I am bullish . Once it breaks down I will be expecting a correction. It could happen very fast so it is important to be alert / prepared.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Consensio: Fully bullish ...
Patterns: Hyperwave fractal , lol
Horizontals: R: $7,300 - $7,500
Trendline: 30 minute channel
Parabolic SAR: $4,497 | $6,719 on 4h, probably a good one to keep an eye on
Futures Curve: Starting to test the backwardation that has been persistent.
Funding Rates: longs pay 0.01%
Shorts: Dumping, but not anywhere near be ‘oversqueezed’
TD’ Sequential: G5
Ichimoku Cloud: Reentering weekly cloud
Relative Strength Index: 88
Average Directional Index: Not overbought, even on 4h
Price Action: 24h: +13.69% | 2w: ++40.65% | +40%
Bollinger Bands: Breaking out from a weekly squeeze
Summary: HOW INCREDIBLE IS THIS?!?!?! I still cannot believe it! This is an unprecedented move! The last time we have had a 3 month candle this big was Q4 of 2017 and we are not even halfway through this quarter!!!
I understand that I was calling for lower prices and largely missed out on this move, but I am still pinching myself, wondering if this is a dream.
We are ripping through resistance that could have taken many months! The higher that the price goes the greater that the chances are that this bear market is over in my mind. If we really are entering the next bull market then I believe there is an extremely high likelihood of six figure prices.
Therefore this is just the very tip of the iceberg and it is very important not to make emotional / reactional decisions.
I currently have about 30% of my overall desired exposure and I do not intend on increasing it right now. It was only 15% before this > 100% increase in price, so I wasn’t necessarily intending to have that much percentage exposed, but that is a difficult ratio manage with an asset this volatile!
I always recommend to have 5% - 10% of personal networth exposed to BTC at a minimum. This has been my suggestion in bull and bear markets. The upside is too great not too. In bear markets I wanted a small percentage and in bull markets I want to have a very high percentage.
When risking a very significant amount of money I want to wait for confirmation opposed to trying to get the best price possible. If this is just the beginning then there is plenty of time to make a long term investment (2+ years).
We are entering the weekly cloud and many indicators are not that overbought, which absolutely blows my mind. The ADX and TD Sequential both show plenty of room to the upside. The RSI could be interpreted that way as well. The funding rates and BTCUSDSHORTS confirms this.
My backup plan was to wait for a golden cross and spending some time above $6,500. This is not how I was expecting to get there. Sometimes even a well thought out backup plan is not enough to prepare for the markets volatility and that is especially true in crypto. Now that we have made it through $6,200 I expect that to be an area that acts as strong support on a pullback. Before today I was looking 20% lower than that. Whatever happens I will scale in by portions and will remain as flexible as possible.
It is up to you to make up your mind and develop / stick to a sound gameplan. Wait for the weekly close before making a decision for a significant amount of money. Whenever it feels like a decision needs to be made right now it is best to wait, at least for a few hours.
For those who are feeling like a deer in the headlights here are TWO OPTIONS:
1) Scale in at 10% of a time. Do this at certain price points, or certain dates. For example: 10% every 2 weeks or every $1,000 in price increase.
2) Another option would be to scale in 1% of the desired position every day for the next 100 days.
My Gameplan
I love using Exponential Moving Averages to buy pullbacks. The 50 and 200 EMA on the 4 hour and daily charts are my favorite. When they are in a fully bullish posture then scaling in when the price tests those areas provides high probability entries. If they rollover / cross into a bearish posture then I will be immediately scaling back out. Until that happens I will be watching the 30 minute channel that is illustrated in the chart above. As long as we stay in / above that channel I am bullish . Once it breaks down I will be expecting a correction. It could happen very fast so it is important to be alert / prepared.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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