Bitcoin Daily Update (day 224)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “The market feels' like it is ready to make a significant move more than ever before (in my experience). I remain confident that it will be to the downside.” / Short BTC' from $6,330.50 | Short ETH:USD from $197.02
Patterns: Descending triangle / Ready to test phase 2 of hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,210 | S: $6,100
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still plenty of room to go before reaching all time high levels. Looks like it will create new all time time this month due to three higher lows heading into a triple top.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -4.49% | 26: -5.36%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -6.79% | 128: -8.30%
Volume: Yesterday’s candle had the most volume that we’ve seen since September 5th and 6th', when the last selloff occurred.
FIB’s: Testing 100 level. 1.618 = $3,663 when using May 5 high
Candlestick analysis: Today’s candle is forming an inside bar. Price is currently trying to bounce off a 1h dragonfly.
Ichimoku Cloud: Full bearish on all time frames from 1h - 1w
TD’ Sequential: W: R1 | D: R3 | 12h: R5 | 4h: R7 | 1h: R5
Visible Range: POC’ over last year is now $6,650 and that node has almost 2X the next highest.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +/- 0 | 24h: -5.51% | 1w: -5.91% | 2w: -5.97% | 1m: -1.40%
Bollinger Bands: Closed below bottom band. Current candle having trouble getting back above bottom band. Keep in mind that this could still be a shakeout before the real breakout happens to the upside (I think that there is < 15% chance that is the case)
Trendline: Yesterdays candle perfectly wicked off phase two hyperwave. Top of descending triangle = $6,450 - $6,525
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: This last move has violated 5 down fractals!
On Balance Volume: Lower highs and lower lows on daily. Just made lower low on weekly.
ADX: Still under 10. If it breaks 20 then I would be comfortable assuming that this isn’t a fakeout.
RSI (14 setting): D: 34.93 waiting for it to get < 30 before considering it oversold | W: 43 and has broken down from it’s triangle
Stoch: Bearish with room to go on daily and weekly.
Summary: Key number is $5,900. Close at or below that price would represent a breakdown of the hyperwave line and the descending triangle. If that happens and you are not in a position then it will present a great shorting opportunity.
I do expect a small bounce off the first test of the phase 2 hyperwave trendline. A return to $6,400 to test that area for resistance is the most logical result. If that happens it will present another great opportunity to enter or add to a short.
The target from a breakdown of the phase 2 hyperwave line would be a return to phase 1 at ~$1,400. The target from the descending triangle is $3,000. Another major area of support is $4,200 - $4,500. I think $3,000 has the greatest chance of being the bottom with the other two options being given about 20% each.
I am not throwing out these low numbers to cause fear, uncertainty or doubt. I am simply outlining measured moves from reliable chart patterns and advising that you be prepared for everything.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “The market feels' like it is ready to make a significant move more than ever before (in my experience). I remain confident that it will be to the downside.” / Short BTC' from $6,330.50 | Short ETH:USD from $197.02
Patterns: Descending triangle / Ready to test phase 2 of hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,210 | S: $6,100
BTCUSDSHORTS: Still plenty of room to go before reaching all time high levels. Looks like it will create new all time time this month due to three higher lows heading into a triple top.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -4.49% | 26: -5.36%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -6.79% | 128: -8.30%
Volume: Yesterday’s candle had the most volume that we’ve seen since September 5th and 6th', when the last selloff occurred.
FIB’s: Testing 100 level. 1.618 = $3,663 when using May 5 high
Candlestick analysis: Today’s candle is forming an inside bar. Price is currently trying to bounce off a 1h dragonfly.
Ichimoku Cloud: Full bearish on all time frames from 1h - 1w
TD’ Sequential: W: R1 | D: R3 | 12h: R5 | 4h: R7 | 1h: R5
Visible Range: POC’ over last year is now $6,650 and that node has almost 2X the next highest.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +/- 0 | 24h: -5.51% | 1w: -5.91% | 2w: -5.97% | 1m: -1.40%
Bollinger Bands: Closed below bottom band. Current candle having trouble getting back above bottom band. Keep in mind that this could still be a shakeout before the real breakout happens to the upside (I think that there is < 15% chance that is the case)
Trendline: Yesterdays candle perfectly wicked off phase two hyperwave. Top of descending triangle = $6,450 - $6,525
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: This last move has violated 5 down fractals!
On Balance Volume: Lower highs and lower lows on daily. Just made lower low on weekly.
ADX: Still under 10. If it breaks 20 then I would be comfortable assuming that this isn’t a fakeout.
RSI (14 setting): D: 34.93 waiting for it to get < 30 before considering it oversold | W: 43 and has broken down from it’s triangle
Stoch: Bearish with room to go on daily and weekly.
Summary: Key number is $5,900. Close at or below that price would represent a breakdown of the hyperwave line and the descending triangle. If that happens and you are not in a position then it will present a great shorting opportunity.
I do expect a small bounce off the first test of the phase 2 hyperwave trendline. A return to $6,400 to test that area for resistance is the most logical result. If that happens it will present another great opportunity to enter or add to a short.
The target from a breakdown of the phase 2 hyperwave line would be a return to phase 1 at ~$1,400. The target from the descending triangle is $3,000. Another major area of support is $4,200 - $4,500. I think $3,000 has the greatest chance of being the bottom with the other two options being given about 20% each.
I am not throwing out these low numbers to cause fear, uncertainty or doubt. I am simply outlining measured moves from reliable chart patterns and advising that you be prepared for everything.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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