BTC Weekly Update 7/23/18
Updated
Welcome! I've been learning/practing technical analysis for awhile now and have recently learned a lot about price action. I plan to publish my thoughts at least once a week. My goal is to practice, improve, learn and hopefully share some knowledge with the community. Please feel free to challenge and question me (respectfully). This is also not financial advice in anyway. PSA: Don't look for advice from random people online!
Weekly: BTC closed last week in a weekly bearish order block. Right now BTC is trying to fight its way out of this order block and break the June high(7798). This year has been a series a lower highs so this could end up being another one of those. I'm a skeptic until we break and close above 10k. I'm expecting to at least wick through the June high. A close above it on a daily chart would be pretty bullish. I think it is more likely we wick through it and sell off before or around the 8k level.
Daily: Since the swing low on 7/21, BTC has closed in the weekly bearish order block once and is currently printing a nice green candle towards the top of this range. Some closes and consolidation in here are bullish in my opinion as supply could be dropping which will allow more movement upwards. There seems to be decent support in the 7200-7300 range. There is still a lot of resistance here and BTC still has not taken out the high from June yet so a bearish price reversal is definitely in play. I'd be worried about a close below the swing low on 7/21.
4H: BTC has made some recent closes in a 4H bearish order block (inside of the weekly) and closed above a recent swing high. Looking left BTC had several wicks into the resistance and the recent moves up have been closes(bullish action). Closes and consolidation within the 4H bearish order block could lead to a break and consolidation above this level.
1H: Similar to the 4H chart. I'm considering longs at the PWC(prior week's close) the 7/21 or 7/22 swing lows. THE PWH is approximately the EQ of the bearish 4H OB and consolidation above this would seem like a positive sign to me.
Trade scenarios I am considering.
1)
Despite the recent bullishness BTC is still in a downtrend. I like a potential short trade around the 7856 level. This level is above the June high, is a 50% retrace from the June high to the recent lows and is just above significant resistance(stops to run/liquidity). I'd like to see a wick into this level and a close below the June high of 7798 which would be a strong signal to take this trade. If this ends up being a new short term high in a continued downtrend there could be a nice RRR available. If I take this trade I plan to sell at intervals on the way down depending on price action (1st target would be about 7200-7300) and would consider trying to target down near the June lows(if not lower). I'd set a stop loss between 8020-8050.
2)
There is definitely the chance for a more bullish move as well. I'm looking for a break and close above the June high. If we get this I will definitely be looking to long any retrace to the previous resistance that could become support. From there, I will start to take profit around 8500 and continue to take profits as BTC climbs. My stop loss will be around 7590.
3)
This is another short term trade I like that could happen before #1. Given how much support there has been I'd consider a long around the weekly open or 7/22 swing low. I'd target the June high for profit taking. My stop loss would be below the 7/21 swing low (7200ish). This provides a nice 2.0+ RRR.
Weekly: BTC closed last week in a weekly bearish order block. Right now BTC is trying to fight its way out of this order block and break the June high(7798). This year has been a series a lower highs so this could end up being another one of those. I'm a skeptic until we break and close above 10k. I'm expecting to at least wick through the June high. A close above it on a daily chart would be pretty bullish. I think it is more likely we wick through it and sell off before or around the 8k level.
Daily: Since the swing low on 7/21, BTC has closed in the weekly bearish order block once and is currently printing a nice green candle towards the top of this range. Some closes and consolidation in here are bullish in my opinion as supply could be dropping which will allow more movement upwards. There seems to be decent support in the 7200-7300 range. There is still a lot of resistance here and BTC still has not taken out the high from June yet so a bearish price reversal is definitely in play. I'd be worried about a close below the swing low on 7/21.
4H: BTC has made some recent closes in a 4H bearish order block (inside of the weekly) and closed above a recent swing high. Looking left BTC had several wicks into the resistance and the recent moves up have been closes(bullish action). Closes and consolidation within the 4H bearish order block could lead to a break and consolidation above this level.
1H: Similar to the 4H chart. I'm considering longs at the PWC(prior week's close) the 7/21 or 7/22 swing lows. THE PWH is approximately the EQ of the bearish 4H OB and consolidation above this would seem like a positive sign to me.
Trade scenarios I am considering.
1)
Despite the recent bullishness BTC is still in a downtrend. I like a potential short trade around the 7856 level. This level is above the June high, is a 50% retrace from the June high to the recent lows and is just above significant resistance(stops to run/liquidity). I'd like to see a wick into this level and a close below the June high of 7798 which would be a strong signal to take this trade. If this ends up being a new short term high in a continued downtrend there could be a nice RRR available. If I take this trade I plan to sell at intervals on the way down depending on price action (1st target would be about 7200-7300) and would consider trying to target down near the June lows(if not lower). I'd set a stop loss between 8020-8050.
2)
There is definitely the chance for a more bullish move as well. I'm looking for a break and close above the June high. If we get this I will definitely be looking to long any retrace to the previous resistance that could become support. From there, I will start to take profit around 8500 and continue to take profits as BTC climbs. My stop loss will be around 7590.
3)
This is another short term trade I like that could happen before #1. Given how much support there has been I'd consider a long around the weekly open or 7/22 swing low. I'd target the June high for profit taking. My stop loss would be below the 7/21 swing low (7200ish). This provides a nice 2.0+ RRR.
Note
Just went short a 7742. BTC wicked to 7799 on 4H and closed below 7798(June high). This is a swing failure pattern. Went into a small short position with my first target around 7300. Will decide how far to take this as price action unfolds.Note
Stopped out of SFP.Note
Nice run BTC has gone on. I'm considering longing a retrace to prior resistance and hoping it becomes support. Might see consolidation on near the next bearish 1D OB as well. Note
I'm looking to scale into this trade: I think we might see a run on stops below 8k and bounce from there(hopefully).
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