It Keeps Trying To Get back Inside
Updated
BTC is currently retesting the trendline of the bearish wedge it fell out of. However, it remains in the uptrend channel. (I'll add a separate chart for that below.) Several swings on the 1H chart are showing bearish divergences, whether you call that a triple or merely a double, it's still a stronger reversal in the immediate timeframes than simply one bearish divergence. If BTC fails to break up from 11K WITH VOLUME, expect a selloff soon with a final target of 10316 (first downside touch of the wedge). However, it's possible that it will simply drop to the bottom of the uptrend channel for support.
Note
As I was constructing this, BTC made it back inside up to 11035. Let's see how this plays in the coming hours. I am looking for a confirmation before going long or short.Note
Uptrend channel. Note
The thick blue line above the channel is the long term downtrend line for BTC, topping first at 192xx, then touching last year's high of 138xx.Note
Given the way price is rising on a decline in volume and negative funding rates, it's likely this this week's rally is simply driven by liquidation of shorts alone. I had originally set a parameter of 9700-10600 as a no trade zone as the past two weeks have been nothing but whales squeezing longs out, then shorts back and forth. I am still on the sidelines, even with this rise. cointelegraph.com/news/3-reasons-bitcoin-price-just-hit-11-000-despite-altcoin-stagnanceNote
I meant to say 10800 as my upper parameter.Note
BTC has been rejected yet again off the topside of the wedge, this time at 11097 and dumped back out of the wedge. AGAIN. I am not currently in any trade as this has simply turned into a region of nothing but whale games and liquidations. BTC simply rose because negative funding and yesterday's tether printing.But wait for exchange funding to straighten out before attempting a short.Note
I just wanted to follow up on this chart and show you how reliable rising wedge breaks are. Notice that BTC fell and returned to the same price as when it made its first underside touch of the wedge. Currently there appears to be a bit of stop hunting going on as we rise out of the bear flag. I still think we might see a completion drop to 9800, but that's for another chart. Trade closed: target reached
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