Bitcoin Analysis -“For every dark night, there's a brighter day"

Updated

continues its downtrend from last few days and now people starts panicking, is the bull run over ? are we going down to 4k ? should I sell and cut my losses ? and so on.
There are many types of trader in the market- day traders, swing traders, scalpers, bulls and bears. They look at different time frames and form an opinion about the current trend and accordingly they go short or long or do nothing (yes, a professional trader always know when to stay out of a trade)
But we should never loose sight of what is happening in the bigger picture. The ups and downs looking like tsunami may be just small ripples in the grand scheme of things.
The blue sloped support line which BTC is touching was a resistance from past 6 months and BTC tried to break it 4 times and failed. But it succeed in the last attempt and that surely does change things.

“For every dark night, there's a brighter day"
"For every Bull/Bear run there is a retracement"

Now if we take a look at the 4 hour chart BTC formed a textbook Elliott wave in the last run, every retracement and extension is so perfect that its just beautiful.
Now if we take a Fibonacci retracemnt of all 5 waves we can see that what's happening right now is nothing but just a retracement after an impulse wave.
Currently BTC is retraced to 0.382 Fibonacci level and heading down to 50% retracement and it may fall back to Fibonacci level of 0.618 (6.8k range). Even if that happens, the long term view will remain bullish. And it could shoot straight back breaking all resistances and creating a crazy bull run.

But don't get me wrong, there are 2 faces of a coin. We don't have to worry about 6.8 to 6.4k range but if it goes below that, then I don't know for sure what's going to happen next. Technically it could fall back up to 99.99% of 1st wave and still manage to come back, but psychologically if it goes that low people will loose interest and traders will start to see this as a very bearish sign.

TL;dR--
1. BTC is in a retracement.
2. It could retrace to 6.8k, even up to 6.4k in extreme cases but the overall sentiment will be bullish.
3. Try to buy in small amounts up to 6.8k.
4. If it goes below 6.4k then the bears are clearly winning.

Stay safe & Happy hunting
If you have any questions please feel free to ask in comments.

Note:- This is not a financial advise, please do your own research before investinng.

Trade active

Be careful, it is reaching golden ratio of 0.618.
But no need to go in a long yet

Trade active

Bitcoin is on the move, above 55EMA on 15 minute chart.
Now look for 30 minute chart and so on

Trade closed: stop reached

That's why I was saying again and again and again "do not enter a long until and unless you see clear reversal signs"
Now the expert trader are crying all over social media about how they lost their money.
Stay safe guys

mustagfir

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