9/12 - A lot of things happened since last update, but we're back to the same price range (7100's)
All setups mentioned in previous comment could be considered profitable trades.
I didn't take the 7130's scenario (would've been a profitable trade as it wicked to 7400's after tagging the entry level, without SL triggering) It happened fast, but after rejecting 7400's it was even more clear we were gonna test lows again.
2nd scenario also held the 6813 weekly level for a short while, but I also didn't participate here.
Tried longing the previous lows expecting either SL to be triggered or a hold and a HL, long avg was 6564, SL was 6530. Took 1 PT off at 6666 for about 15% of the position to later be stopped out for a small loss. All in all, about 0.3% loss.
What happened next and what to expect further?
So, btc created a new low at 6410 holding above the 6380 low from May, in hindsight pretty obvious, but I was expecting it to drop lower, so didn't long there.
BTC went up with nice volume to test 7400's AGAIN, rejecting strong and closing daily below this weekly level. Will have to wait and see what this weekly will look like after close, anything above 6900's will give a bit more life to bulls (that would be the level to hold and look for longs).
BTC is still below a pretty heavy resistance, and as I said in previous comments 7800's is the next level to break and close above for more bullish upside, maybe bulls surprise everyone and manage to close weekly above it? Who knows...but it's highly unlikely at this point.
This rejection feels like it was a great push to fill shorts to continue lower, and anyone who got a short in the 7450's area is now with SL in profit. Unless we manage to creep higher and close weekly above 6900 my expectation for btc is to continue lower...be prepared to see some panic if we break below 6300.
Sitting on my hands right now, waiting for either a long around 6700-6800's or continuation lower where we'd be looking for longs in the 5200-5800's area.