Midterm Support and Resistance Zones
Hi guys,
To summarize the past two days and my previous posts:
- BTC broke above the 50D-SMA, bouncing from the yearly trendline from Jan 2015.
- It settled above a strong support zone (~3925-4000) and came in contact with the heaviest resistance it had for a long while (~4130-4270), consisting of several fib levels, the 200W-EMA and a longterm downtrendline.
- Why BTC fell from this kind of support is still a mystery to me. Volume was rather low and the support should not have broken that easily, especially not the additional support at around 3870-3905. The drop was obviously caused by a liq slide, and I dare to hypothesize that some relevant institutions meddled with the market to cause it. But I'm not trying to find an explanation here, we have to take the market as it is.
- We did shortly find support on the yearly trendline and the bottom trendline of the triangle we were in, and then dropped lower to the strong support zone (3549-3681), consisting of several important fib and non-fib levels. Besides, we're exactly on top of the Daily .618 fib BB, which seems to be one of the most important midterm indicators we have to our disposition right now (see for yourself in the chart below).
Things to consider:
- BTC has been slowly narrowing the range in which it hovers around the yearly trendline. This might indicate some upwards movement soon towards 3.8k.
- We do potentially have until March to float somewhere in the void (3k-3.7k) (perhaps horizontal movement with low volatility) until the price is forced to break out from significant trendlines and MAs.
- A rally to 5k and above is still feasible, but there are indications (3D Stoch RSI crossing bearish, D MACD bearish cross, low volume) that it will be difficult for the bulls to collect and maintain confidence and to push through.
- The 4H chart shows upwards momentum building, so it's not unlikely to see a bounce from the current support zone.
I'm neutral right now and will stay out of the market until we can see a clear new swing in the making.
See my previous posts for more charts.
Trade safe.
To summarize the past two days and my previous posts:
- BTC broke above the 50D-SMA, bouncing from the yearly trendline from Jan 2015.
- It settled above a strong support zone (~3925-4000) and came in contact with the heaviest resistance it had for a long while (~4130-4270), consisting of several fib levels, the 200W-EMA and a longterm downtrendline.
- Why BTC fell from this kind of support is still a mystery to me. Volume was rather low and the support should not have broken that easily, especially not the additional support at around 3870-3905. The drop was obviously caused by a liq slide, and I dare to hypothesize that some relevant institutions meddled with the market to cause it. But I'm not trying to find an explanation here, we have to take the market as it is.
- We did shortly find support on the yearly trendline and the bottom trendline of the triangle we were in, and then dropped lower to the strong support zone (3549-3681), consisting of several important fib and non-fib levels. Besides, we're exactly on top of the Daily .618 fib BB, which seems to be one of the most important midterm indicators we have to our disposition right now (see for yourself in the chart below).
Things to consider:
- BTC has been slowly narrowing the range in which it hovers around the yearly trendline. This might indicate some upwards movement soon towards 3.8k.
- We do potentially have until March to float somewhere in the void (3k-3.7k) (perhaps horizontal movement with low volatility) until the price is forced to break out from significant trendlines and MAs.
- A rally to 5k and above is still feasible, but there are indications (3D Stoch RSI crossing bearish, D MACD bearish cross, low volume) that it will be difficult for the bulls to collect and maintain confidence and to push through.
- The 4H chart shows upwards momentum building, so it's not unlikely to see a bounce from the current support zone.
I'm neutral right now and will stay out of the market until we can see a clear new swing in the making.
See my previous posts for more charts.
Trade safe.
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