XBT INTRA-DAY UPDATE
From our latest intra-day update I stated that wicks into the 3250$ zone would occur and we would find support at these levels before going on to test 3427$ first and then 3610$ thereafter on MEX. None the less, as I stated 3427$ was the first major resistance and this was difficult to break through. We saw a rejection at this level to create a lower high from 3610$ and since then we have invalidated the higher low concept as can be seen on our chart with a rejection from 3427$ leading to support being found just below 3200$. From the deduction segment of our last breakdown I stated ‘Thereafter, REAL bearish activity can start from these levels and then we can use these support zones as downward targets as low as 3063-2950$ on an intra-day basis’.
I also stated to you guys that ‘’REMEMBER OUR LONG TERM TARGETS TO THE DOWNSIDE ARE MUCH GREATER THAN THE UPSIDE POTENTIAL SO IT MAY BE A GOOD IDEA TO STAY SHORT BIAS RIGHT NOW AND SHORT FROM HIGHS RATHER THAN BUYING AT LOWS ON MARGIN’’.
What can we see on the 4 hourly charts for XBT ?
- We can see that after finding support just below 3200$, we failed to receive the usual pump we usually expect to receive at these levels. Instead, we have received excessive sideway movement at support - thus, indicating that the bulls maybe losing momentum in this fight to hold prices up and bears have increasing strength.
- On the 4 hourly, our momentum indicators are at support zones but looking at it from a 1 hourly viewpoint, then we can expect a rejection from current zone back down to 3150$ region, where the bulls will have another attempt to hold prices up. If these levels are not held up then we can expect further drops to as low as 3060$ (this has been a zone we have been eyeing up for support activity across the majority of this week and also, a downward target we are scoping). If this level fails to hold (and it is extremely likely that this will be the case, then we can expect a further drop into our final theoretical support zone of 2950$. If this level is broken, then hell may break loose and swift achievement of our 2100$ conservative downward target could be achieved.
- None the less, looking at the 4 hourly charts from a wholesome viewpoint, we can also see that for the next major meltdown to our downward targets to occur, we must really test 3350-3430$ zone once again for us to be in bearish momentum zone once again and also, use current supporting momentum correctly. Thus, we can deduce that price will most likely find support at 3150$ once again and go on to test highs of 3350-3427$ before any real major bearish activity begins.
- On the 4 hourly charts, we can expect RSI to fall to 15 level before any bullish activity can be expected.
- On the 4 hourly charts, we can also expect RSI/ROC to begin giving us short (green lights) once this momentum indicator reaches the 62 level to the upside and this should correlate with 3350-3427$ region in price.
- Will the 3350$ level be difficult to break to the upside ? Yes, because that was previously a major price floor and is now a major ceiling.
What can we see on the hourly charts ?
- I went into a lot of detail on the 4 hourly side of things, while taking a look at the 1 hourly chart, so this will be brief.
- We can see that MA’s are currently being used as resistance to assist a drop to the 3150$ zone we stated.
- We can see that RSI is being rejected on the hourly and is well on its way to 15 level for support on the hourly. After going long at this level, you should use 37 and 60 level as sell indicators - 37 level will hold well imho.
- We can see that RSI/ROC is at infamous support level of 40 and upward activity from this level is inevitable in the long run for further drops to occur to the downside. As stated in our 4 hourly outlook, then we will probably drop before any long opportunity comes into play to cause REKT on XBT and MEX. Never the less, this 40 level has failed to create sufficient upward activity as of yet and even if it causes an increase to 3300$ on the hourly, we can expect this level to knock prices back down to our support zones to the downside.
What to keep an eye out for ?
- 3150$ support being used again to attain an increase to 3350-3427$ sell walls.
- An increase from current zones won’t be beneficial in the long run for price action but would rather lead to early rejection from zones such as 3300-3310$ previous support now a ceiling.
- If you are a conservative trader and want to trade in the dominant position, wait for an increase to the stated resistance zones before shorting and also, wait for momentum indicators to reach the levels stated for short activity to be safe.
- SL for any calls will be given on our priority channel once the call is ready so stay patient.
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