BitcoinShort
All coming together with Elliott Waves - BTC
Updated
Applying Elliott Wave Theory to BTCUSD, it seems as if we are on target for the final C wave down of this correction. Today and yesterday we formed a symmetrical triangle (ABCDE wave) and tonight we completed a three wave bringing our wave 4 on the larger time scale to a close. I think we are currently forming a ending diagonal (rising wedge) on small time frames, which should break down and start our next 5-wave down towards (C). My target determined from my previously posted bearish gartley harmonic pattern compliments this being at $8500-$7500 based on the 1.618 fib extension of AD of the harmonic.
In addition, CBOE contracts ended on the 18th and CME contracts expire coming up on the 26th. May be mere coincidence, but if one were to assume most of those interests were short, then these price corrections are well timed.
It is crucial that we do not cross above the dashed line as that would invalidate our wave analysis. This coincides with my previously posted Wyckoff distribution analysis in having us fail to break back above the ice. In that regard, this would be a point of last support, and a prime spot to open a short position. The idea would be to short upon confirmation of the wedge breaking down with stop losses set above $13,000.
EDIT: $13,000 stops for US markets, KRW is still trading at a premium and propping this index up.
These implications should be taken into account when analyzing the entire crypto market as I suspect the majority of the market will follow.
*THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE*
In addition, CBOE contracts ended on the 18th and CME contracts expire coming up on the 26th. May be mere coincidence, but if one were to assume most of those interests were short, then these price corrections are well timed.
It is crucial that we do not cross above the dashed line as that would invalidate our wave analysis. This coincides with my previously posted Wyckoff distribution analysis in having us fail to break back above the ice. In that regard, this would be a point of last support, and a prime spot to open a short position. The idea would be to short upon confirmation of the wedge breaking down with stop losses set above $13,000.
EDIT: $13,000 stops for US markets, KRW is still trading at a premium and propping this index up.
These implications should be taken into account when analyzing the entire crypto market as I suspect the majority of the market will follow.
*THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE*
Trade active
We look to be breaking down out of a rising wedge. Resistance at $13,000 held. Note
Careful here. Although we fell with some good momentum, the volume has not picked up yet and we are finding support where two trend lines converge right above the $12,000 support levels. Watch for reversal on strong volume here. If support holds, we will likely continue in the yellow rising wedge. If Stops remains above $13,000.
Note
For those interested, here is the index I use to chart off of. I have adapted it a bit since posting. It averages all major exchanges, including 1 Japanese and 2 Korean exchanges, and adjust the Korean exchanges to account for their premium.Copy and paste the following (you can also set on your watch-list):
(KRAKEN:XBTUSD+COINBASE:BTCUSD+BITFINEX:BTCUSD+BITSTAMP:BTCUSD+BITFLYER:BTCJPY/FX:USDJPY+(BITSTAMP:BTCUSD+BITFINEX:BTCUSD+COINBASE:BTCUSD+KRAKEN:XBTUSD)/4/((KORBIT:BTCKRW/FX_IDC:USDKRW+XCOIN:BTCKRW/FX_IDC:USDKRW)/2)*(KORBIT:BTCKRW/FX_IDC:USDKRW+XCOIN:BTCKRW/FX_IDC:USDKRW))/7
Trade active
I believe we are still on track, these are the waves I am currently tracking. It is imperative that wave (iv) does not cross above wave (i). I will update if this happens, otherwise we are a GO.Note
The (iv) wave did not cross into wave (i)'s territory and we are still on track for our targets between $9,000 and $7,000. We may see a bounce or some sideways action at some point over the next couple days, so keep an eye out.Note
We are not out of the woods yet, however. We may go into a sideways ABC corrective wave here, which must also stay below the point (ii) on the above chart.Note
Unconfirmed bullish divergence on the 4 hour. This 4 hour candle just started, so there is still plenty of time for this to invalidate. Essentially we need this candle to close lower than the previous candle for continuation. If that does not happen, then we will likely retrace some and/or see some sideways action for a day or two. Trade active
I wanted to post an update in light of recent price action.It seems BTCUSD is struggling to break any major resistances. First we struggled to get through $11,500 and then yesterday failed to break through $12,000. I believe this is due to a lack of demand and plentiful supply. I anticipate a sharp move one way or the other in the coming days, and I am thinking it is more and more likely it will be down.
Note
Drum roll pleaseTrade active
$500 from first target. Set buys/take profits between $8500 and $7500. The market moves fastest when we reach new lows, don't try to get orders in during the action, set them ahead of time and let them ride.I am increasingly bearish on bitcoin, and the crypto market as a whole. I think if ETH does not hold its ground above $1,000, then the entire space will be in a several month long bear.
There is still money to be made in bear markets, and they are a healthy and necessary thing for future pushes upwards.
Stay tuned for updates.
Trade closed: target reached
A little off on timing, but we stuck the landing.Note
Update showing the exact 1.618 fib target for the bearish gartley. Hoping we find support here. 
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