Cashing out on market asymmetries
Skip to the second paragraph to get to the point, first paragraph discusses observations...
What you see in the bottom of the screen is a script I recently published just for fun; it's a momentum measurement for bitcoin against several fiat pairs and crypto pairs, and all summed together. The top of the screen is essentially the btc price, but somewhat more reactive. What is really interesting here is that on the morning of 21.11 the red line (which represents the sum of bitcoin momentum across multiple pairs) took a steep dive to an order of magnitude less than it has often been at (bottom pink circle), an obvious red flag for long holders. Then 3 hours later the XBTUSD price took a quick decline as well! The steep decline in the momentum looks largely responsible by the DASHBTC pair, but took a few hours to show in the BTCUSD pair. The reason so many prices of cryptos are stable is because of the work of the people doing arbitrage, this normalizes the market. However in this case it took longer than expected, possibly for a number of reasons, due to time of day, blockchain verification delays, or simply there are not so many arbitrage bots on the DASHBTC pair, or any other reason... Then 3 hours later the bitcoin price followed suit. The insane divergence of DASHBTC from the overall value of BTC can be taken in only 2 ways: Dash has a sudden market strength, or money is moving from BTC to DASH, possibly foreshadowing a decline in BTC.
What would be interesting is a suite of indicators that measure how volume moves through a specific crypto to find its overall worth (ie. multiple exchanges and multiple pairings). If a lot of money is being poured into, or out of, one pair then the overall value may also be effected with a time delay. Enough of a time delay to get a great position (like the 3 hours mentioned above). I will need to think about how to appropriately measure this, normalizations schemes, volumes, momentum, price, ect... If anyone wishes to discuss ideas related to this I would be more than happy to talk.
Cheers!
What you see in the bottom of the screen is a script I recently published just for fun; it's a momentum measurement for bitcoin against several fiat pairs and crypto pairs, and all summed together. The top of the screen is essentially the btc price, but somewhat more reactive. What is really interesting here is that on the morning of 21.11 the red line (which represents the sum of bitcoin momentum across multiple pairs) took a steep dive to an order of magnitude less than it has often been at (bottom pink circle), an obvious red flag for long holders. Then 3 hours later the XBTUSD price took a quick decline as well! The steep decline in the momentum looks largely responsible by the DASHBTC pair, but took a few hours to show in the BTCUSD pair. The reason so many prices of cryptos are stable is because of the work of the people doing arbitrage, this normalizes the market. However in this case it took longer than expected, possibly for a number of reasons, due to time of day, blockchain verification delays, or simply there are not so many arbitrage bots on the DASHBTC pair, or any other reason... Then 3 hours later the bitcoin price followed suit. The insane divergence of DASHBTC from the overall value of BTC can be taken in only 2 ways: Dash has a sudden market strength, or money is moving from BTC to DASH, possibly foreshadowing a decline in BTC.
What would be interesting is a suite of indicators that measure how volume moves through a specific crypto to find its overall worth (ie. multiple exchanges and multiple pairings). If a lot of money is being poured into, or out of, one pair then the overall value may also be effected with a time delay. Enough of a time delay to get a great position (like the 3 hours mentioned above). I will need to think about how to appropriately measure this, normalizations schemes, volumes, momentum, price, ect... If anyone wishes to discuss ideas related to this I would be more than happy to talk.
Cheers!
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