Long

Updated

BTC - $3000 test before breakout

Bitcoin looks ready to test $3000 before a strong reversal and breakout from the prospective bear trap.

The exhaustion volatility from the nonfailure reversal on 24/12 (blue vertical) predicts a break of $3000, providing institutional investors access to a significant liquidity pool. Fibonacci retracement (dark blue) has an extended fib level (0.786) at $2959. This is close to the previous resistance/support level found at $2955.
Short term Fibonacci time zone placement (vertical dashed) suggests that significant changes in trend may occur around 26/1 and 19/2. Long term Fib time zone placement (vertical solid) suggests a significant trend change around 10/2.

A high probability long position could be entered at the levels indicated in green, with a stop loss placed below 2900. The mid term targets from the predicted breakout average around 5400. This provides a potential R value of >14. I will post another chart as we approach the potential breakout zone.

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Exhaustion volatility can also be measured from close-open, providing the same measure.

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Hourly leading ichimoku resistance at key level ($3540) and downtrend resistance

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Price breakout of downtrend, currently meeting resistance of previous trading range. Trade remains valid until upper resistance of previous trading range is broken

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Hourly bearish TK cross within bearish kumo cloud.
This is a bearish-neutral signal. Suggesting sideways movement with a potential upward stop loss hunt, but with a probable bearish outcome

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6 Hour RSI remains consistently below 50, indicating bearish dominance

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Current short position entry and exits.

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6Hr Bollinger bands have just tightened to the smallest bottle neck since the breakdown of 6K, with bandwidth confined to the lower 50% of the previous range (white circle)
This indicates very low volatility, which often precedes a high volatility move (As per Hunt Volatility Funnel)
This is occurring as we are 1 day away from the next short term fib time zone (5), while sitting on the significant level of 3500.

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Price now at key level of significance (3565) as the day has closed on the short term fib time zone (5).

We could now see a break from the uniquely constrained volatility

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BTC price in contact with resistance from previous symmetrical triangle (yellow dashed). 6Hr RSI resistance beneath 50

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Short term ascending wedge

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Rising wedge EW reversal

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Potential Nonfailure reversal

Trade closed: stop reached

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Short position closed but prediction remains valid. Long position at 3000 will be outlined if price approaches buy zone.

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MACD indicating a decision point soon

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Bear flag forming on key level of significance

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BTC hourly ADX highest it's been in 5 months, indicates the short term trend is very strong and might need to cool off with a bounce to around 3480

RSi break above 30 giving same signal

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Fib speedlines suggest trend will slow to within the green lines

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Short term H&S in conlfuence with other signals suggesting a bounce (Not confirmed until neckline break). Take profit opportunity in green with short reentry in red

I'm holding a hedge short and taking some profits for later reentry

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BTC long position, hedge against longer term short. R:R = 8.1, Min winrate =15% including drawdown

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Adjusting the fib speedlines to fit the recent low projects price to hit 3000 at the 8th Fib time zone in early feb. This could be the bottom

Order cancelled

After assessing the bigger picture, I don't believe BTC will reach 3000, but instead it appears likely to complete an inverted H&S formation

OrigamiOracle

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OrigamiOracle