Bitcoin Trend Change Part II - B wave trend reversal?
Updated
Hi again! Part two, the weekly chart analysis, for XBTUSD:Kraken is here. I view trading similar to a mental martial art. So in order to be the best trader and TA I can be, I employ a system that uses multiple disciplines to pinpoint wave count/location, trend, and price action. Just a quick rundown on what to expect:
I perform trend analysis, the pivot high and low prices noted, then the LWC is determined. Then count the bars between the points to determine the trend rotation and/or appropriate elapsed time. Trend rotations, LWC transitions, and trend changes are connected. Time and price are connected. The connections are Fibonacci, Lucas, and Gann numbers. The connections must be verified, which I do for you. The MACD, RSI (on smaller time frames), and volume metrics validate LWC and rotation. Candlesticks confirm the trend changes via reversal and continuation patterns. After the Gann factors and degrees are calculated between the pivots and I confirm that the Fib extensions/MA/Andrews validate, I can have confidence in the location and determine entry, exit, and stop locations.
I have done all the work for you to comfortably suggest making certain trades on my posts, but verify my assessment!
If none of this makes any sense, you must learn LWC, Fibonacci extensions/ratios, Gann principles, Japanese Candlesticks and Andrews pitchfork usage. No one said this is easy. But put in the hard work, verify my work, and make good trades.
LWC: Location SC4E_A-cycle: Contracting Triangle, corrective E wave (D top = G)
Trend: Up, against the main trend
Recent Pivot: G2 $9,850.00
Candlestick pattern
Engulfing:
• G is the star on the Monthly (in part one of my XBTUSD:Kraken series), but an engulfing red on Weekly
• Large engulfing red candle 2 weeks after G, with larger body on high volume than recent trend up (C up = F3_G)
• G2 is a good candle pattern reversal for the B wave against the main DOWN trend
Validation/Confirmation
- Multiple time pivots on G
- Failed at .618 major retracement resistance
- Falling volume
- Bearish divergence
- Riding the 75% pitchfork
- Bounced off the 20MA
- 4th wave violations Good triangle shape
- D and F first two rising bottoms
- C, E, & G triple tops
- G2 is showing to be a good reversal pivot but will be confirmed in smaller time frames
Projection/Trade Tactic
- SC4E bottom: $6,450 (Projected H)
- On the Monthly assessment, this was the guidance:
• Short the triple top G after candle confirmation
- On the monthly, the candle confirmation is a descent below $10,590 so for the weekly, we will continue to wait and see a confirmation reversal formation from our current weekly candle that is set to complete in 5 days (9/20)
- The reason we will wait is we do not trade against the trend
• Corrective moves go against the trend, and corrective moves are generally smaller than impulse moves, so if we trade against the trend, we expose ourselves to higher risk in the form of a shorter move
- If we do not want to wait for another weekly candle to confirm, we need to go to the daily chart, but right now we cannot set our stops because this could be a B wave as a retracement of our G high.
- G2 is actually a good reversal pattern, so be weary of our B trend upwards, it could ascend to resistance at the 50% retracement of C_D or the 61.8% of B_C
- Do not under any circumstance, try to predict the actual top of this possible B wave. We will verify the top after it forms and determine a short sell entry point
Here are the data points:
S/R
- $11,390
- $9,917.50
- $9,438.30
- $8,087.50
- $7,618.30
Price pivots:
E2: $6,430.20
E3: $10,516.60
F2: $10,370.00
F3: $8,812.80
G2: $9,850.00
LWC: Trends
- SC4C_Cycle A: E_E2
- SC4C_Cycle B: E_E3
- SC4C_Cycle C: E3_F
- SC4D_Cycle A: F_F2
- SC4D_Cycle B: F2_F3
- SC4D_Cycle C: F3_G
- SC4E_Cycle A: G_G2*
Trend Range G-Factor G-Degree Bar-Time
E_E2 $7,445.50 86.2873 15,531.72 25
E_E3 $3,359.10 57.9577 10,432.39 33
E3_F $6,603.50 81.2619 14,627.15 4
F_F2 $6,456.90 80.3548 14,463.87 12
F_F3 $4,899.70 69.9979 12,599.61 15
E3_F2 $146.60 12.1078 2,179.41 16
F2_F3 $1,557.20 39.4614 7,103.05 3
F3_G $3,667.80 60.5624 10,901.23 8
G_G2 $2,630.60 51.2894 9,232.09 3
F_G2 $5,936.90 77.0513 13,869.23 26
F3_G2 $1,037.20 32.2056 5,797.01 11
My overall TA strategic approach of various cryptocurrencies, in the form of my personal guidelines and foundational values driving trend analysis-based swing trading. Remember risk management and setting stops before you trade.
1) LWC is the map, time our compass - validate on price and confirm with candlesticks
2) EVERY trade: LWC location, time bearing, price validation, and candle confirmation are required
3) All LWC counts, Gann degrees/factors, and time assessments need validation at a smaller time frame
4) Trade off candlesticks that confirm pivots which display a trend change
5) Trust the process and numbers
6) Trade with the trend in your chosen time frame
7) Start large and work small
I perform trend analysis, the pivot high and low prices noted, then the LWC is determined. Then count the bars between the points to determine the trend rotation and/or appropriate elapsed time. Trend rotations, LWC transitions, and trend changes are connected. Time and price are connected. The connections are Fibonacci, Lucas, and Gann numbers. The connections must be verified, which I do for you. The MACD, RSI (on smaller time frames), and volume metrics validate LWC and rotation. Candlesticks confirm the trend changes via reversal and continuation patterns. After the Gann factors and degrees are calculated between the pivots and I confirm that the Fib extensions/MA/Andrews validate, I can have confidence in the location and determine entry, exit, and stop locations.
I have done all the work for you to comfortably suggest making certain trades on my posts, but verify my assessment!
If none of this makes any sense, you must learn LWC, Fibonacci extensions/ratios, Gann principles, Japanese Candlesticks and Andrews pitchfork usage. No one said this is easy. But put in the hard work, verify my work, and make good trades.
LWC: Location SC4E_A-cycle: Contracting Triangle, corrective E wave (D top = G)
Trend: Up, against the main trend
Recent Pivot: G2 $9,850.00
Candlestick pattern
Engulfing:
• G is the star on the Monthly (in part one of my XBTUSD:Kraken series), but an engulfing red on Weekly
• Large engulfing red candle 2 weeks after G, with larger body on high volume than recent trend up (C up = F3_G)
• G2 is a good candle pattern reversal for the B wave against the main DOWN trend
Validation/Confirmation
- Multiple time pivots on G
- Failed at .618 major retracement resistance
- Falling volume
- Bearish divergence
- Riding the 75% pitchfork
- Bounced off the 20MA
- 4th wave violations Good triangle shape
- D and F first two rising bottoms
- C, E, & G triple tops
- G2 is showing to be a good reversal pivot but will be confirmed in smaller time frames
Projection/Trade Tactic
- SC4E bottom: $6,450 (Projected H)
- On the Monthly assessment, this was the guidance:
• Short the triple top G after candle confirmation
- On the monthly, the candle confirmation is a descent below $10,590 so for the weekly, we will continue to wait and see a confirmation reversal formation from our current weekly candle that is set to complete in 5 days (9/20)
- The reason we will wait is we do not trade against the trend
• Corrective moves go against the trend, and corrective moves are generally smaller than impulse moves, so if we trade against the trend, we expose ourselves to higher risk in the form of a shorter move
- If we do not want to wait for another weekly candle to confirm, we need to go to the daily chart, but right now we cannot set our stops because this could be a B wave as a retracement of our G high.
- G2 is actually a good reversal pattern, so be weary of our B trend upwards, it could ascend to resistance at the 50% retracement of C_D or the 61.8% of B_C
- Do not under any circumstance, try to predict the actual top of this possible B wave. We will verify the top after it forms and determine a short sell entry point
Here are the data points:
S/R
- $11,390
- $9,917.50
- $9,438.30
- $8,087.50
- $7,618.30
Price pivots:
E2: $6,430.20
E3: $10,516.60
F2: $10,370.00
F3: $8,812.80
G2: $9,850.00
LWC: Trends
- SC4C_Cycle A: E_E2
- SC4C_Cycle B: E_E3
- SC4C_Cycle C: E3_F
- SC4D_Cycle A: F_F2
- SC4D_Cycle B: F2_F3
- SC4D_Cycle C: F3_G
- SC4E_Cycle A: G_G2*
Trend Range G-Factor G-Degree Bar-Time
E_E2 $7,445.50 86.2873 15,531.72 25
E_E3 $3,359.10 57.9577 10,432.39 33
E3_F $6,603.50 81.2619 14,627.15 4
F_F2 $6,456.90 80.3548 14,463.87 12
F_F3 $4,899.70 69.9979 12,599.61 15
E3_F2 $146.60 12.1078 2,179.41 16
F2_F3 $1,557.20 39.4614 7,103.05 3
F3_G $3,667.80 60.5624 10,901.23 8
G_G2 $2,630.60 51.2894 9,232.09 3
F_G2 $5,936.90 77.0513 13,869.23 26
F3_G2 $1,037.20 32.2056 5,797.01 11
My overall TA strategic approach of various cryptocurrencies, in the form of my personal guidelines and foundational values driving trend analysis-based swing trading. Remember risk management and setting stops before you trade.
1) LWC is the map, time our compass - validate on price and confirm with candlesticks
2) EVERY trade: LWC location, time bearing, price validation, and candle confirmation are required
3) All LWC counts, Gann degrees/factors, and time assessments need validation at a smaller time frame
4) Trade off candlesticks that confirm pivots which display a trend change
5) Trust the process and numbers
6) Trade with the trend in your chosen time frame
7) Start large and work small
Note
The monthly update confirmed the SHORT trade. The weekly is showing another entry point. Please note, that you can place a SL at 1% above the G4 candle ($11,290) for lower probability trigger. Downward trend confirmation at G4 (MACD signal cross, falling volume, and price pivot at G4), but the B wave may not be complete. B wave DID retrace to the 50% fib: a very important resistance line failure, suggesting no further upward trend. See green highlight on this chart update for entry for SHORT SELL.
Note
Trade: do not trade off of the weekly if using leverage, trade at least off the daily. If trading without leverage risk and can tolerate periods of time in the negative on a trade for this weekly chart update:
BUY LONG at the .618 FIB $10670
SL: $10550
Profit Target: $11,475
Not a huge trade, but it goes with the upward trend
Here is the evidence:
Now that we made the B wave (wave 2) bottom at H4, we can monitor the daily and intraday timeframes for good volumes on which to BUY LONG to the projected C top. Do not buy off of the Weekly as the reactions and volume are very small still, indicating that we are in the early hours of the trend change off of H4.
Remember that the initial ABC from G_G2 is the A Cycle of SC4E, we are on the B cycle now, which is corrective. We should see lower volumes on this weekly chart. The gold line is the SuperCycle (SC) line.
We can buy now, and set a stop a few bucks below the G2 morning candle HIGH of $10,573, but I do not necessarily like the MACD and volume decline on the Weekly.
Minor, short term, UPWARD TREND, SC4E_Cycle B_Primary C began on H4 yesterday. Trend projection to C top at $11,491.70.
SC4E_Cycle B_Primary A is G2_G4; SC4E_Cycle B_Primary B is G4_H4:
1. Cycle B retraced 50% of SC4E_Cycle A (rose FIB)
2. G2 is good reversal formation (morning star reversal), supporting cycle b
3. Rising bottoms on G2 (twice essentially) and H4
• MORE H4 short term/minor trend Pivot bottom evidence:
4. H4 is strong gDegree and gFactor price pivot with G6, F, H,
5. H4 has good time alignment with multiple time frame price pivots(G2, G4, F) indicating good bull rotation in the short term
6. H4 found support on the 20MA which was also the price of the .236 retracement on the white FIB.
7. Projected SC4E_CycleB_Primary C is shown as projected to gold color .618 retracement. The projection is blue and the time estimate is just an estimate as well (OCT5)
8. Projection aligns with C extending 1.236 of A
9. Recently found support at the .618FIB and the 75% pitchfork
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