BTCUSD ~ W formation, potential 15% long, SHORT TIMEFRAME TRADE
Updated
Quick trade setup here.
Right now I'm just bored with our sideways 30-40k movement going on for well over a month.
Its actually a pretty easy range to be trading in right now, so I might as well do a trade or two while this boring time accumulating keeps grinding on.
NOTE: I am not a trader and do this for fun a few times per year/quarter.
I am a longterm investor and HODLer.
I am buying every dip (not options or leverage - buying real bitcoin) below 31k.
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TRADE SETUP
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Well this one is easy.
I see a W formation on the lower time-frame charts (1h to 8h).
The target of a W formation is equal to the neckline + the difference between the neckline and the second bottom on the W. (White vertical trend lines show this on the chart.)
The reason I like this trade is because it lines up EXACTLY with the 40k confluence horizontal resistance area.
The 40k horizontal is what we need to break on longer time-frame in order to continue the bull market (break and hold on daily retest).
So with this trade, the idea is to just long it from W formation neckline S/R retest (when it breaks above it, then retests it as support, long it from the neckline up to the 40k horizontal).
The invalidation scenario is if we hit the W formation neckline and get rejected and go back down.
That is why we wait for breaking the W formation neckline, wait for it to retest that neckline as support, long it on the retest with a tight SL of just -1.5% or so - and we're pretty golden.
Alternatively you could long it right now while we are still below the neckline, and then put a SL at your entry - right now we're at 33.2k so thats another option.
This is riskier because there is NO CONFIRMATION on completing the W formation. However if you want to trade on "pattern in play until invalidated away" then go right ahead - and you'll have an even bigger upside if it DOES complete.
This adds risk to the trade. Do as you wish. I'm going to enter now with 50% of the position and double my position if the W formation completes - and close my position if it rejects.
***SINCE WE ARE STILL IN A DOWNTREND LOCALLY, THIS IS A RISKY TRADE!***
From neckline of W completion to target it is a 15% upside vs 1.5% risk downside to our SL. I like them odds.
See you at 40k, or we get rejected and we'll be going back down to 30k! (Where I'll be buying more hard BTC again anyway!)
Good luck!
Right now I'm just bored with our sideways 30-40k movement going on for well over a month.
Its actually a pretty easy range to be trading in right now, so I might as well do a trade or two while this boring time accumulating keeps grinding on.
NOTE: I am not a trader and do this for fun a few times per year/quarter.
I am a longterm investor and HODLer.
I am buying every dip (not options or leverage - buying real bitcoin) below 31k.
######################
TRADE SETUP
######################
Well this one is easy.
I see a W formation on the lower time-frame charts (1h to 8h).
The target of a W formation is equal to the neckline + the difference between the neckline and the second bottom on the W. (White vertical trend lines show this on the chart.)
The reason I like this trade is because it lines up EXACTLY with the 40k confluence horizontal resistance area.
The 40k horizontal is what we need to break on longer time-frame in order to continue the bull market (break and hold on daily retest).
So with this trade, the idea is to just long it from W formation neckline S/R retest (when it breaks above it, then retests it as support, long it from the neckline up to the 40k horizontal).
The invalidation scenario is if we hit the W formation neckline and get rejected and go back down.
That is why we wait for breaking the W formation neckline, wait for it to retest that neckline as support, long it on the retest with a tight SL of just -1.5% or so - and we're pretty golden.
Alternatively you could long it right now while we are still below the neckline, and then put a SL at your entry - right now we're at 33.2k so thats another option.
This is riskier because there is NO CONFIRMATION on completing the W formation. However if you want to trade on "pattern in play until invalidated away" then go right ahead - and you'll have an even bigger upside if it DOES complete.
This adds risk to the trade. Do as you wish. I'm going to enter now with 50% of the position and double my position if the W formation completes - and close my position if it rejects.
***SINCE WE ARE STILL IN A DOWNTREND LOCALLY, THIS IS A RISKY TRADE!***
From neckline of W completion to target it is a 15% upside vs 1.5% risk downside to our SL. I like them odds.
See you at 40k, or we get rejected and we'll be going back down to 30k! (Where I'll be buying more hard BTC again anyway!)
Good luck!
Trade active
entered trade @ 32777stop loss @ 31777
target @ 39777, 35777
Trade active
cool, that one worked out.we still need to break this horizontal resistance though at 35.5k to really start validating the higher time frame W formation completion.
the break-up has volume though, so its looking good!
Trade active
took 50% of my positions profits at $35111still 50% in long position.
raised SL to $33555 (if it loses 34k, realistically, it will dip down)
looking to either stop-loss out of the rest of this trade, or ride it to 38k.
if we flip this horizontal resistance around 35k ill add back my 50% long as well.
this could be the end of the dip..... feels good to be in a long from
31K and add to it as we go up.Trade closed manually
Well - I dont like going to bed while I have an open leveraged trade. So. I decided to close the other 50% of this long after watching us just get rejected on the 1-4h chart from testing the ~35k resistance zone.I am waiting for the next trade which I think will be nice as well.
However, there are 2 scenarios for the next trade. Up and Down - (duh?!) - and it depends on what happens here with the 35k horizontal resistance layer.
I do not short bitcoin, so I will not be going short if we reject again.
Only degens short bitcoin....
Nice long profit trade though, took my 5k profits (~9%) for this one and said good day.
ENTRY: 31777 +3BTC on 3x leverage
EXIT: 35111 and 34555 (yea, I wasnt patient....after closing it, price went over 35.2k lol)
NOTE: I still believe in the long position here - but I just dont want to go to bed another night with an open leverage trade active. I like to do short leveraged trades maximum 30h or so. I already had this open since yesterday.
I sleep much better knowing I booked profits and dont have any risk on the table :)
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