BTC, raw prediction, 50% retracement still in play
Updated
Here is a raw prediction for the coming months
I expect us to go down going into September with a continuation of the last sell off.
- First target: 10,400 - 10,500 resistance trendline
I expect we will see a retest of the resistance trendline at the 10,400-10,500 range, which will probably break but immediately pull back the 23rd or 24th of august. A failed breakout will create a lot of sell pressure, and give room for another correction below the pennant.
- Next target: 9,000-9,300 support line
Strong support at 9,000-9,300 could create a small bounce, but after already testing this support twice it will probably fail on the 3rd test and move down towards our next target.
- Next target: +/- 8,700 Support
This range would also be a 50% retracement from the huge bull run we had since reaching the bottom, so bulls will be getting back in.
This is where it gets interesting. The 8,700 range also matches the 0.786 fib retracement of the last smaller part of the bull run.
I will gradually buy back in here starting at 9000 and if we hold above 9,200 support I think it's time to go total bull.
- Next target: 8,000 - 8,200 Support at 1.618 fib level
This would also be a 0.618 correction since the start of last bull run. There is a chance this will happen, but I expect it to be only a spike towards this range with an immediate buy wall getting in.
Don't count on it!
After reaching the 8k range, prepare for new highs, because I don't expect real consolidation from this point until a new local high at 14,000+.
RSI could easily go under 20% which would make bitcoin highly oversold
Daily snap
P.s.: Didn't mean to use the Kraken chart, but won't make a lot of difference imo.
This is no financial advice, this is pure educational for myself.
I'm trying to learn to understand TA and hope I get some positive responses which will help me in the future.
I am no pro, nor am I trying to prove I am.
I expect us to go down going into September with a continuation of the last sell off.
- First target: 10,400 - 10,500 resistance trendline
I expect we will see a retest of the resistance trendline at the 10,400-10,500 range, which will probably break but immediately pull back the 23rd or 24th of august. A failed breakout will create a lot of sell pressure, and give room for another correction below the pennant.
- Next target: 9,000-9,300 support line
Strong support at 9,000-9,300 could create a small bounce, but after already testing this support twice it will probably fail on the 3rd test and move down towards our next target.
- Next target: +/- 8,700 Support
This range would also be a 50% retracement from the huge bull run we had since reaching the bottom, so bulls will be getting back in.
This is where it gets interesting. The 8,700 range also matches the 0.786 fib retracement of the last smaller part of the bull run.
I will gradually buy back in here starting at 9000 and if we hold above 9,200 support I think it's time to go total bull.
- Next target: 8,000 - 8,200 Support at 1.618 fib level
This would also be a 0.618 correction since the start of last bull run. There is a chance this will happen, but I expect it to be only a spike towards this range with an immediate buy wall getting in.
Don't count on it!
After reaching the 8k range, prepare for new highs, because I don't expect real consolidation from this point until a new local high at 14,000+.
RSI could easily go under 20% which would make bitcoin highly oversold
Daily snap
P.s.: Didn't mean to use the Kraken chart, but won't make a lot of difference imo.
This is no financial advice, this is pure educational for myself.
I'm trying to learn to understand TA and hope I get some positive responses which will help me in the future.
I am no pro, nor am I trying to prove I am.
Note
Target 3 ReachedNote
Bigger correction still possibleFor now I'm expecting BTC to go to 9K.
[IMG]
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