Does the BTC Daily MACD Trend Continue?
Updated
Long story short. I think it does. I have already recommended consideration of taking profit in this market. I've showed these signs for a while, I'm just continuing to make note of it. I saw way too many analysts and media get ridiculously bullish just because we broke a little trend line... NO. We've only jumped 3.5k points in a whole MONTH. We jumped 5k points in FOURTEEN days in February. You all already know that I'm bearish biased, and it was going to take a lot to confirm an uptrend for me. Shoot, this jump was already in the PLAN. I even thought it was going to go higher at $10,500. But that was cut short. Take a look at all the related articles to this if you haven't.
Look at whats going on. If you notice the trend for the past 7 months, every time the daily MACD has crossed over to the downside, we have seen drops of a minimum of 30%, the largest being a 55% drop. We just crossed over just now.
There is also a huge hidden bearish divergence on the RSI (white break line). The most important trend line for us to break would be that blue resistance. You actually could make a case for a head and shoulders there, but ONLY with the top of the B wave and the bottom at $6450, with whatever shoulder we'd make here.
The yellow boxes are places we could possible bounce from. If we break below a box, then the NEXT lower box would be the next support zone. I think we'll definitely see 8k. But what happens there will be interesting.
One thing I did notice about this MACD is trend is this. The days of each drop are stretching out, and the magnitude of the drops are decreasing. Meaning, that maybe there is a chance that we don't fall far and we could see a bounce. But I'm thinking we at least test 8k here. Bulls need to break that blue line without a break of 6k. If we can't do that, then my target of 3k is going to look a lot more likely. Please keep in mind of my overall market outlooks. No where have I said that I don't think this thing won't hit 3k anymore yet. We're playing the bumps here. There is something called DOW theory and bubble psychology (NO, I don't think we're in a bubble, YET, BUT with parabolic growth, this will happen). Along the course of the year, we'll likely see volatility decrease and go into a pretty long span of sideways action and consolidation before we MOON. And when I say MOON, I MEAN MOON. I'm super bullish for the market after Q1 2019. I don't want to be too bearish, because a break of the blue line or 11.7k will definitely make me bullish for 2018. But I don't see it yet.
I will start the education posts tomorrow as promised! First I want to cover swing highs & Swing lows (Supports/Resistances), then Risk Management (3 parts), Dow Theory, RSI, MACD, Stoch RSI, Elliot Wave Corrections, Trend lines, Fibonacci, Advanced Elliot Wave, and Bollinger Bands throughout the summer. Whether you are a day trader, swing trader or investor, the first 3 (ESPECIALLY RISK MANAGEMENT) topics are the most important, and EVERYONE that ever personally invests ever in anything of everything ever should have an understanding of those. Just because its crypto does not mean you shouldn't take it as seriously as investing in Equity. This is even more dangerous, so its even more important to understand risk management. If you are a beginner, a study of each one of those educational posts will make you a better and more aware investor/trader, I guarantee it.
Look at whats going on. If you notice the trend for the past 7 months, every time the daily MACD has crossed over to the downside, we have seen drops of a minimum of 30%, the largest being a 55% drop. We just crossed over just now.
There is also a huge hidden bearish divergence on the RSI (white break line). The most important trend line for us to break would be that blue resistance. You actually could make a case for a head and shoulders there, but ONLY with the top of the B wave and the bottom at $6450, with whatever shoulder we'd make here.
The yellow boxes are places we could possible bounce from. If we break below a box, then the NEXT lower box would be the next support zone. I think we'll definitely see 8k. But what happens there will be interesting.
One thing I did notice about this MACD is trend is this. The days of each drop are stretching out, and the magnitude of the drops are decreasing. Meaning, that maybe there is a chance that we don't fall far and we could see a bounce. But I'm thinking we at least test 8k here. Bulls need to break that blue line without a break of 6k. If we can't do that, then my target of 3k is going to look a lot more likely. Please keep in mind of my overall market outlooks. No where have I said that I don't think this thing won't hit 3k anymore yet. We're playing the bumps here. There is something called DOW theory and bubble psychology (NO, I don't think we're in a bubble, YET, BUT with parabolic growth, this will happen). Along the course of the year, we'll likely see volatility decrease and go into a pretty long span of sideways action and consolidation before we MOON. And when I say MOON, I MEAN MOON. I'm super bullish for the market after Q1 2019. I don't want to be too bearish, because a break of the blue line or 11.7k will definitely make me bullish for 2018. But I don't see it yet.
I will start the education posts tomorrow as promised! First I want to cover swing highs & Swing lows (Supports/Resistances), then Risk Management (3 parts), Dow Theory, RSI, MACD, Stoch RSI, Elliot Wave Corrections, Trend lines, Fibonacci, Advanced Elliot Wave, and Bollinger Bands throughout the summer. Whether you are a day trader, swing trader or investor, the first 3 (ESPECIALLY RISK MANAGEMENT) topics are the most important, and EVERYONE that ever personally invests ever in anything of everything ever should have an understanding of those. Just because its crypto does not mean you shouldn't take it as seriously as investing in Equity. This is even more dangerous, so its even more important to understand risk management. If you are a beginner, a study of each one of those educational posts will make you a better and more aware investor/trader, I guarantee it.
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I really tried to get this post out quicker before that fall happened. I mentioned the bear flag on my twitter (follow @cryptoeball, just made the account). But I needed to get all the information. If you've been following me, then you're probably aware, so it doesn't matter all the much...
Anyways, we're looking at this support here for now. If we break this support (which we probably will), then it's ehhhh, it's probably not going to look allll that great these next few days. But hey, we'll see how it goes :D
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I want to show this real quick, just because I am annoyed. This is important, but its not. Just notice the difference in price action between exchanges. On Kraken, we are clearly on wave 5. On Bitfinex, we are clearly on wave 3. But, I have to trust Bitfinex simply because that would be a more open count, and Kraken could still fit that criteria. If I did not look at other exchanges, however, then I'd never know. That's what kinda sucks about elliot wave count, and why a lot of people hate it. But to be honest, people hate it because they suck at it. Not even trying to be funny, that's literally it. It can also get pretty ambiguous at times, and it makes it harder to find the right solution.
Anyways, we're at channel support right now. This channel support breaks, along with the yellow line. Then ooooh are we in for a good game, folks!
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Here are some possible paths we have over the course of the next few days. The yellow path is probably the worst pathway in terms of a downtrend setup.
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The 55 1 hr EMA is very close to crossing under the 200 1 hr EMA. Lets see what has happened in the past when we get that crossover.
Example A
tradingview.com/chart/hNFPi78g/
Example B
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Wave count 1Alternate count 2
A break below $9022 on the alternate count will debunk that count.
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Here are two setups. Usually I do not show positions because it takes away from my purpose. But hey, why not. I have not entered a position yet, but I'm looking into setting this up with sell orders starting at $9300. Stop loss at $9450. Two targets, one is more aggressive than the other, lower possibility but still a probable trade. Bearish signals all around and I believe this wave count makes sense. A break above $9450 invalidates this count. BTC is currently moving up quickly so I'm keeping my eyes on that in case I want to refrain from this trade.
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The 1 hr 55 and 200 are officially crossed well over. We may still try $9300 but I can't say we will.
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Shorts are offNote
I'm very upset that I never noticed the descending wedge here. The supports were clearly there and the indicators were calling for a reversal but I ignored based on original wave count, not taking this one into consideration. Sometimes you just want to cuss yourself out. Anyways, I'm expecting something like this to occur. We're still going to head down, the indicators just need to reset.
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We'll fall soon and likely create a bear flag. $9586 is the goal.
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Here is the overall analysis and view once again. We're working on a head and shoulders within the distribution phase of the Wyckoff theory. I've been saying on my twitter, everyone in the market is FAR too bullish right now. There is no reason to be that bullish. I clearly see many signs as to why we are not even close to THE uptrend yet. We will at least have a lower low, and this next drop will let us know just how bullish this market is. Consensus conference theory that it will spike up the price is yet again, just a theory. The Chinese New Year was just a theory. Futures "were never going to fail crypto" was just a theory (they kind of didn't fail crypto, they just didn't sustain healthy levels, but you get the point).
I hate that I have to be the one that needs to slow the party down, but it's far too necessary that everyone that I can reach has the understanding that we're not out of the woods yet. We can be, but I won't believe it til I see it. I'd prefer for this market to go up, but I've got to continue with this downtrend until the downtrend patterns are broken. which they aren't.
Sometimes I may come off as too bearish, but when the market is too bullish I have to trust my gut.
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More reasons to question your bullishness.
5 waves are in, so far we have only retraced .236 of the total run. That happens 5% of the time. The bollinger bands have squeezed twice recently, and both equated to drops of at least 29%. This is the tightest the BB have squeezed Since September, 2017. With a 5% chance to go up, the tightest BB squeeze we've seen, a head and shoulders forming, the Daily MACD has crossed down, and an apparent distribution phase going on? Odds are against the bulls right now. As much as it sucks to say, I believe we are right on track for 3k this year.
And that's OKAY! I'm thinking just 8 more months of this crap. Literally just 8 more months or so. IF that happens (which it may not, there's no guarantee), then hey, that is not long at all. If you invest in stocks then this isn't shit. It's just harder not to watch because its exciting and volatile. But we'll be alright. :)
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Ichimoku cloud basics.
+ Small note on Williams %R
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Uhhh, this is moving down a little too fast. We'll see if the parallel support holds, but I'd stay away from long positions until this thing settles.
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BTC Longs are going up. People are thinking we're going to get a bounce, and it makes sense to me. I think we still need a wave C and this is wave B.
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Officially downtrending again. We should re-test support at 9k and fall allllll the way down to 8.2k :)
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Bear flag. One more leg down before we ascend to $9040. Here are the two positions I'm planning on taking here.
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Short target reached. I am long now :)Note
Stop hitNote
Been killing it on twitter with the short-term calls. Anyways, here's an update on wave count. There are these two options here, we have a slight problem with the diagonal on the left. BUT, the overall count still makes since to me. I don't think its the one on the right, but I think its still a possible count. There's some issues with that one, but it may work. I'll only consider the one on the right if we drag this bullish jump into tomorrow night. Either way, for the short term we end up at $7850.
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I don't care to use fractals all the much. But I thought that this was cool.
If you love fractals, go follow Botje on here. He uses them all the time, and is pretty good with it.
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Daily MACD rolled over and guess what happened... 20% Drop
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