Short

BTC Wyckoff Distribution

Updated

It seems we are in the midst of a larger reset. BTC looks like a text book for Wyckoff Distribution right now: school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
I'm still bullish on the long term.

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"Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble."(school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method)

Mid-Point of TR: ~ $54.000

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Beautiful accumulation and Sign of Strength at the $50.000 area.

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Reaccumulation here. Expect side-way for a day or two before the next leg up. Long entry once we jump the creek.

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..watch for shakeouts.

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Currently at the trendline. Watch for a daily close below $54.000 which would indicate a sign of weakness and reverse the trend.

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S&P 500 Weekly for reference. Resemblance to BTC right now is very striking.
Green Circle = Where we are right now.

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We are at the fork on the road. We will most likely come and try to flip the resistance at $58.500. If we are successful this will be another SOS (Sign of Strength) and potentially propel us above $60.000 to ATH or slightly above by the end of the week (Friday, May 7th 2021) and thus continuing the bull cycle - if not we'll start a slow bleed down.

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At the resistance. We need a daily close above $58.500

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Since we broke $58.500 yesterday and showed a sign of strength, it seems we are in a re-accumulation again. Expect to revisit by end of this last.

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Update for reference:

We are about to jump the creek back to $58.500 - I believe this time we'll stay in the upper resistance range around $61.000 - $58.500 for a couple of days and have yet again some shakeouts before we try to break in the previous ATH. As always, this is not an advice, the market changes every day, every minute.

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Update for reference:

Please note: It is ok for a "leading stock" like BTC to show minor signs of weakness during re-accumulation.

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Supply at $57.000 is drying up. Expect a move above $61.000 this week.

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Hard to say where we are right now. Technically we still have a chance to end the week above 61k, as long as we stay on the upside of the $54-$58.5 trading range. We are still in a long term bull-cycle after all. However, BTC is showing more and more signs of weakness, which is still ok for now, but a panic sell related to inflation worries might drop us below $54 and ultimately back to sub 50k levels. I expect the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index for last month which is going to be released tomorrow (Wednesday May 12th, 2021) should move the needle for the global markets and BTC - in one or the other direction.

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Both CPI and Core CPI are much higher than expected. This is most likely going to be a red day - unless the BTC is a hedge against inflation story holds.

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Quick update - it seems we will close below 51k.

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and a hit.

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We are not out of the woods yet by far. BTC is still in "shock" mode, all indicators have been reseted, which should (SHOULD - not must) be bullish for the short-term at least, but no significant demand so far. Expecting a strong market today as smart money comes in and buys yesterday's dips from wallstreet and BTC.
Key areas to watch: 53k-54k - we must close the week above (mid of trading range) at least.
A daily close below 50k and we are testing 47k again.

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Addendum: I don't know of course. Just speculating.
Personal Note: I treat this idea here as a journal for myself and definetly not as trading advisory. As you can see I have been wrong most of the time, please trade carefully.

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Zoomed out view -maybe I should have done this all along. Could be wishful thinking - if not we are in for some very hard and fast bullish action.

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Seems that support test is going to hold

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Positive:
- 47k did hold as support - but we didn't have a "spring" yet
- We broke the falling broading wedge and signaled a trend reversal
- The uptrend is strong, not doing any major corrections (so far) even when overbought on the lower time frames
- Volume is rising

Negative:
- The 50k-51k area has very strong resistance
- We are only crawling upwards so far - I'm worried about the 9D and Weekly Candle (I still would like to see the weekly above )

We could still see a drop and dip to and below the support line at 47k - the question is whether we see an actual high volume "spring" from this move or close below 47k. I would be cautious with margin trades (long & short) at this point.

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Just an idea not a trading advice.

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Update: Looks good so far. Expecting higher highs and lower lows from here on out with volume picking up. A dip down to 47k will be off the table when we break out of the red resistance area.

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higher lows of course, not lower lows

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We failed to hold the line. If we close there or even lower, a dip becomes more likely. We'll see what happens in the next couple of hours.

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We are close. I think we will hit the target range - and potentially our bottom - in the next 4h.

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Not seeing enough Volume to justify that this is over yet.

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We'll probably dip below the support lines. ~$47-45k - question is whether we will see a Spring and jump back. The longer this is taking the harder the dip will be - I would be very cautious if the dip happens after the daily close.

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No spring yet..

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While a Spring is not technically needed - I personally find this move up rather inconvincing at this point and will wait for confirmation.

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A failure to close above 47k might sent us to ... not there yet.

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Addendum: In the 47k- range - we might be bouncing of the middle of the range at 45k.

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I think this was the bottom.

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Expecting to stay betweem the support lines at $47.5 - $47 for a short while to scare the rest out, then we should begin moving up and out of the channel.

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Something like this:

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Looks good.

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Continues to look good. Missing some more volume. Waiting for th 6h/12h candles in the next 30 min. daily and weekly close would be a strech in the remaining time. >50k more likely.

Personal Note: I find the amount of fear-mongering on Twitter on TV right now quite entertaining.

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Seems we flipped the 47k support into resistance.

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We are at the April downtrend trendline.

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Ugly.

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Careful now.

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We have a sign of weakness. What we are currently seeing might a low volume dead cat bounce, potentially followed by some smaller ones until this moves down for good. Whatever you do, please consider stop losses.

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If we can just break the middle trendline (down from 61k)

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Zoomed out:

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Totally overbought on lower time frames but doesn't even look like it considers a correction. Looks bullish to me. Middle trendline test soon.

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Speaking of trendline ADA, ETH, DOT also about to test their downward trendlines.

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Lower than 0.5 I would short.

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We are about to find out if will support us once again - I don't count on it.

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Hm. There is a lot of buy signals on higher TF. I wonder what will happen.

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To the moon!

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Only a comment for now.
I got a question today asking whether this bull cycle is over.
The answer is: I don't know. The pattern that started this this thread is still valid but not confirmed yet (daily close below support lines <). The pattern will only be invalidated if we close above 61k.

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Nasty Bear Flag

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Short term looks good again - would like to see a higher higher for confirmation.

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and back to down - make up your mind already.

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Ranging in a very tight range now. Untradable. Big move is coming in either direction soon. (I give it 30 mins.)

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Some alts are pumping hard, while BTC is struggling hard. There could be a blowoff top coming shortly. Trade safe. Don't get greedy.

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Here is what should happen if our support is broken and the pattern confirmed (Image is just for illustration purposes of the path - ignore price and time)

First we should see a significant down followed by a automatic rally back to (or close to) our support - This will be a very good short opportunity. After that we should see a slow markdown with weak rallies while the price is moving down until we reach our selling climax.

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Pattern confirmed. I'm gonna stop posting in this thread now. Good luck to everyone!

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oh and Welcome to Phase E!

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One more thing (last one I promise - this is getting hard to scroll):

Comparison GOOG vs. BTC - to get an impression where we are and what is (should be) next.

Ozmium

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