BTCUSD ~ Breakout on low volume, market not following: 2 options
Updated
So this will be mostly my bearish scenario here, but I think its worth posting about.
BULLISH:
- We broke out of downward channel
- Every single bit of FA is bullish (El Salvador + Brazil, Panama, Tanzania, Costa Rica, Mexico, Paraguay, Kenya, etc....bitcoin = legal tender!)
- Saylor is about to close his 488M debt notes at any time now (over 1.5bn of interest wanted to buy them) and 100% of that is going straight into BTC
- Saylor is now selling another 11BN of stock.....100% of that is also going straight into BTC
- Tesla hasnt sold a single satoshi since the 10% liquidation test back in april, and is now back in the boat "accepting bitcoin"
- Bitcoin ETF has been delayed at the SEC but is inevitable at any moment
- QE inflation printing is going to keep on going, says the US FED
- China miners are just about out of supply to sell off
BEARISH:
- China miners still have some liquid to sell off
- Chinese retailers are still selling more than buying as well
- With bitcoin breaking up, it still hasnt broken the critical
42K levels which are lots of resistance levels (horizontal, trend, EMA's)
- "Death cross" incoming on daily (historically this has a 50/50 chance of going up/down, so probably doesnt even matter, but its still coming unless we break up higher)
- The rest of the crypto market is lagging after a BTC breakout....usually we see a bit more total-market-pump (TOTAL2 increases at least as much % as TOTAL) within 2-4 days.....so we still have 2 days left sortof, to see this, but I'm actually not expecting it....why? because....
- Because BTC breakout was not really that much volume. Yes it was above average volume line but just BARELY, on the largest 5-10 exchanges. I still view this as a low-volume-break-up, which means it could just go right back down.
Most bearish scenario we are in is that the DAILY chart is an ASCENDING WEDGE pattern, which often breaks down.
Where does an ASCENDING WEDGE pattern break down? Back to where it started.
So my most bearish scenario for BTC is back to 32k.
I have buy orders in from 36k down to 32k because this will be the last time we have any chance to buy BTC at sub-40k ever again.
I will be longing on leverage from 32k if we do wick down there.
Again - this is the bearish scenario.
We very well may not be going sub-40k ever again already (not counting jitter to 39k+ until the next move).
IN THE END: buying BTC at this price is still a wonderful bargain that you will not regret 6+ months from now....so watching these levels is really only an issue about trading....and that is the only reason I am watching it, because I am going to leverage my BTC and some other majors on exchange to do a medium-term long leverage trade from somewhere between 32-38k and will keep adding to it until we hit our 73-78k target in the next month or two (where I expect us to dip again, so I'll be exiting that long there, and rebuying the dip with profits).
BULLISH:
- We broke out of downward channel
- Every single bit of FA is bullish (El Salvador + Brazil, Panama, Tanzania, Costa Rica, Mexico, Paraguay, Kenya, etc....bitcoin = legal tender!)
- Saylor is about to close his 488M debt notes at any time now (over 1.5bn of interest wanted to buy them) and 100% of that is going straight into BTC
- Saylor is now selling another 11BN of stock.....100% of that is also going straight into BTC
- Tesla hasnt sold a single satoshi since the 10% liquidation test back in april, and is now back in the boat "accepting bitcoin"
- Bitcoin ETF has been delayed at the SEC but is inevitable at any moment
- QE inflation printing is going to keep on going, says the US FED
- China miners are just about out of supply to sell off
BEARISH:
- China miners still have some liquid to sell off
- Chinese retailers are still selling more than buying as well
- With bitcoin breaking up, it still hasnt broken the critical
42K levels which are lots of resistance levels (horizontal, trend, EMA's)- "Death cross" incoming on daily (historically this has a 50/50 chance of going up/down, so probably doesnt even matter, but its still coming unless we break up higher)
- The rest of the crypto market is lagging after a BTC breakout....usually we see a bit more total-market-pump (TOTAL2 increases at least as much % as TOTAL) within 2-4 days.....so we still have 2 days left sortof, to see this, but I'm actually not expecting it....why? because....
- Because BTC breakout was not really that much volume. Yes it was above average volume line but just BARELY, on the largest 5-10 exchanges. I still view this as a low-volume-break-up, which means it could just go right back down.
Most bearish scenario we are in is that the DAILY chart is an ASCENDING WEDGE pattern, which often breaks down.
Where does an ASCENDING WEDGE pattern break down? Back to where it started.
So my most bearish scenario for BTC is back to 32k.
I have buy orders in from 36k down to 32k because this will be the last time we have any chance to buy BTC at sub-40k ever again.
I will be longing on leverage from 32k if we do wick down there.
Again - this is the bearish scenario.
We very well may not be going sub-40k ever again already (not counting jitter to 39k+ until the next move).
IN THE END: buying BTC at this price is still a wonderful bargain that you will not regret 6+ months from now....so watching these levels is really only an issue about trading....and that is the only reason I am watching it, because I am going to leverage my BTC and some other majors on exchange to do a medium-term long leverage trade from somewhere between 32-38k and will keep adding to it until we hit our 73-78k target in the next month or two (where I expect us to dip again, so I'll be exiting that long there, and rebuying the dip with profits).
Note
daily/weekly targets for leveraged long trade sub-40k up to 73k+(yes the fib extension says ~80k, and thats why I dont expect us to hit it....always trade in buffer zones of the "obvious targets" so you are sure to fill your orders)
Note
We fell out of the ascending wedge with volume.We are headed back to test FIB level at ~36k.
Will bounce there but we still have to wait and see if we'll hold it or not.
Note
longer term, keep in mind, we are still inside the macro pattern of stock-to-flow, which has a target of 288k this bull cycle.STF pattern is the only pattern that has 100% held since the start of bitcoin. its never been broken, and is based on fundamentals just as much as technicals. look it up if you dont know it. PlanB on twitter etc...
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