Updated

XBTUSD - Kraken's BTCUSD pair - '17 Spring Bull Run

Hello, this is the first idea I've published.

Just a general layout of what I belive are key support points, and my Risk/Reward management.

BTC has been in a solid and parabolic Bull trend this Spring (2017) until just yesterday when we got the bad news about the NHS hack. People who haven't heard about BTC until now will most probably have a bad image about it... which is idiotic if you ask me... would you blame cash when a bank robbery happens? or would you blame the robbers and instead try to improve security? I guess the answer is obvious. But whatever, we know that every crisis is a new opportunity. Time to look for our next possible buying opportunities.

We know that with each parabolic move comes an equally strong correction. The question here is if the correction is what is happening now, or if it's just the market reacting to bad news. We've seen BTC shaking off these type of bad news, so we could expect a few Bearish days until it retakes the previous Bull run we were on. Another possibility is that BTC and buyers need a rest, which they actually need looking at Daily and Weekly charts, and we could see the price settling in what I've named Strong Support or Mid Support 1. Both of these support levels take into consideration previous key resistance points from this year.

Another point, if BTC returns to the uptrend we were on, there's still I think the possibility of seeing a repetition of BTC's previous bubbles, in this case I would aim to the 4000-6000 USD range, at least.

For the time being, I've sold about 60% of the BTC I had assigned for this Long Trade since it hit my Stop Loss (with profit) at just under 1700, which was what I called our Small Support. Price has bounced off from what I designated our Mid Support 2 and should be soon testing the HPT Blue Dashed Line(5) which BTC has already failed 4 times to break. I'm leaving the remaining 40% just in case BTC retakes it's uptrend, and hopefully sell it at a much higher price.

1 - Green Dashed Lines/Green Areas - Key Support
2 - Red Dashed Lines/Red Areas - Key Resistance
3 - Blue Solid Lines - Key Low Price Trends*
4 - Red Solid Lines - Key Low Price Trend Interrupted
5 - Dashed Blue Lines - High Price Trends

* I've ignored the price dip from 7th of May and did not consider it as a Low Price because it was just a particular case for Kraken after the DDoS attack.

In conclusion, given that I've sold 60% of my designated trading BTC, I would wait for price to hit either Mid Support 1 and/or Strong Support to buy, at this point a Correction should be confirmed. In the other hand, if BTC resumes it's Bulltrend, I would sell the remaining 40% at a good price before a Correction.

Happy Trading!

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15m Chart

There it goes testing that High Price Trend Line. Let's see if it breaks it.

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15m Chart

As mostly expected for the time being, rejected once more.

Quick note. Just noticed that it was sitting on the previous Small Support, I had toned down the color for the Script above since it was broken, but I've highlited it here now that it had a small again.

Notice too, 20MA holding as support for now. 200MA will soon come down on price, which in conjunction with the blue dashed line will give BTC more resistance to fight with.

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TYPO: small role*

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15min Chart

Breakout! will it hold? are we going back up?

Seems like it's taking support from that previous Low Price Line which I turned blue now. Also, the latest 15min candle is forming outside of the 200 MA, a close above it would give me a good Bull signal. We will see in 7 minutes...

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1hour Chart

Also, more support tracing back from 9th of May.
Looking for some Resistance at the 1760 level, however, it can turn out being a weak one. Expecting a big upwards move if it breaks it.

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1hour Chart

Indeed it went up again. Watching these 2 Resitance levels (Mid Res 1 and Strong Res). I don't see BTC breaking Mid Resistance anytime soon, I would instead expect some Consolidation between Mid Resistance and Small Support, which again has taken a role in these last moves (I should probably change its name to Mid Support 3, will do if it holds). That, or a bounce back down. But... I could be entirely wrong and we could see BTC going back quickly to test the ATH once more.

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1hour Chart

Mid Resistance has proven to be strong enough, will probably maintain BTC in a Consolidation phase between the Mid Res and Small Sup, as I stated in the last update.
15min Chart

A more granulated view of price movement. We can see the Support levels clearly inside the Support area, as well as the Resistance ones. We can see already a wick going below the Low Price Blue Line.
4hour Chart

Looking at the MACD might suggest upwards movement comming soon, however the last 2 highs are not too appart from each other, meaning there's probably a top already forming. I would keep checking the 1hour and 15min charts before calling it a top.

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15min Chart

Resistance was not broken. It has proven to be strong, given that the last 2 attempts to break 1795 failed, after having tested 1806 and 1818.
Looks like it's forming a downtrend now, but support leves inside my Small Support Area are holding for now. Will update in a few hours or if a move outside of my Support or Resistance Areas occurs.
If a bounce back up to test Resistance again occurs, we might be in a Consolidation as I had stated on a previous comment.

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1hour Chart

No new candles have closed ouside of the Blue line. Low wicks have been testing my previous Stop Loss.

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15min Chart

Breaking several Resistance points (200MA, new high outside of the trend Blue line)
Will soon be testing next resistance. However, I only care about it breaking the Mid Resistance, and the ATH after it. Would consider a buy in each case.

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1hour Chart

This Bull is serious. Let's see if we get a close above that Small Support Area. That last 1hour candle is already forming at a new high outside the Blue Trend Line too.

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By the way, that last Blue Line comes down from the ATH.

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Last update for today, sorry if there's too much spam...

4hour Chart

1day Chart

Again, no plan for now, just wait and see. Waiting for a move outside of Small Support or Mid Resistance before comming up with a target. Still leaning towards Consolidation more than any direction. I think a Correction would have gone deeper down, and therefore part of me expects BTC to keep rallying up, and another part hopes for a dip to the 1300s. It's just a matter of which of the two will come first I guess.

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New updates:

SMALL RESISTANCE//1795-1825// Price has now moved towards Mid Resistance and has had several 15min Candles closing above it. Renamed it as Small Resistance, reasons: a) price broke out of it for a while, b) price is currently moving inside this area, and c) price was stopped at a higher high which was a low a few hours after the ATH.

STRONG RESISTANCE//1844-1886// Price peaked to a previous bottom made a few hours after ATH. Considering 1844 as the bottom of the Strong Resistance Area.

SMALL SUPPORT//1700-1770// Made it a bit wider. Calling it "Small" as it is still the closest Support Area from the Current Price. A Stop Loss just under it might be good.

4hour Chart

A clear picture of the new Support and Resistance Areas. We can see the last 4hour candle being formed inside of what I previously called Mid Resistance, now Small Resistance. New Low Price Trendline will give us a good idea if movement keeps on going in a Bullish manner. Note too, what previously was a Low Price Trendline has come into playing a role once again, leaving it as reference as it could potentially give us another idea of a Bullish Channel forming, this would need to be respected for it to be valid later on.

1hour Chart

A zoomed-in view of how the price has reacted when reaching certain past key areas. Looking here, we could expect some Support Levels forming on or around the thiner red lines inside the Small Resistance area.

The Blue Trend Line that was coming down from the ATH was broken, it is now in a faint pink color and dashed, maintained as reference.

15min Chart

A look inside of what's happening in the Small Resistance, again, looking for some Support levels inside the Small Resistance Area.

Beginning to consider a new buy if price keeps giving Bullish signals and patterns. Others have stated a Bull Flag pattern in the bigger time frame charts. It is visible in my 4hour Chart. If it is indeed one, we can expect these last 4 hour candles to be the Pole coming out of the flag, if so, expect a new ATH very soon!

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Sorry for the silence...

1hour Chart

Breakout incomming.

What the hell happened earlier? 2589?!

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4hour Chart

Got a bit messy with that huge candle. Uncharted territory ahead, no significant Resistance, only psychological barriers like round numbers. Will maintain a Bull idea so long as the bottom of the last Mid Support Area is not broken, along with the Low Prices Trend Line, both of which are currently maintained.

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By the way, the Stop Loss might be better a bit higher, closer to the 1840s, but I prefered using this top from 14th of May as a reference, placing the stop underneath it at 1800:

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Had to adjust some of my Support Areas. Pretty clear we are still on a Bull run, we are getting new ATH every day, but that doesn't mean it will be like this forever, in fact, we should start looking for signs of the market getting tired.

1day Chart

Starting here, we can appreciate fully the parabolic movement here. RSI is not looking too promising here as it has not yet made a higher high like the price has been doing it. How ever, the day has just begun and a lot of things can happen now.

4hour Chart

Adjusted and renamed some of my Support Areas. Made them bigger, now having a $200 range! might be way too generous, but moves in this stage are getting starting to get way too big. Blue Line is our Trend following the corrections, which by the way has turned parabolic by now. Orange Lines are following the quicker parabolic moves on the low prices, will discuss in the following charts.

I'm looking for a dip that should stop on top or inside of my Mid Support 3, or given that we are on a parabolic trend, at some of the thiner green dashed lines between Mid and Small Support, it might be a good entry if you manage your RR well enough.

I've placed a Stop (w/profit)inside of Mid Support 3, but I'm not going to actually execute it unless the Blue Trend line is broken, it's just there for reference, might actually serve as a point where price would bounce. A more reasonable Stop would be just under Mid Support 3, but at this stage it would be a $800 price drop... Only concerned about Trend Line and Mid Support 3 being respected.

4hour Chart

Another detail before jumping into the next chart, notice the Red Line which was our Trend before the 11th of May correction. It has started to serve as Resistance now.

15min Chart

Added Orange Trend Lines to follow the quicker Parabolic trend. Closer look at Small Support, which I dont' expect to hold if we get a correction soon. There is also some Support to be found at $2600. Finally, notice Red Trend Line from the previous chart, here functioning as Resistance. Watching for some action here.

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1hour Chart

Not bad. As expected, dip on top of Mid Support 3. As I wrote on my previous update from today, this is a simple correction inside the trend, BTFD! (IMO). I had a bid for $2210 but missed by $30. Still, will have to keep an eye on this during the day, don't want to be over optimistic.

UPDATES:

- Drew Resistance at our ATH
- Drew Small Resistance where I expect a bumpy road.
- Drew next parabolic Blue Trend Line based on lows. Keeping it dashed in case of a newer dip before breakout. Will turn it solid after uptrend is resumed.

Now, the Stop at 2076 seems reasonable to me. Still not setting it just in case, but RR with entry at 2240 and target of ATH and higher is good enough. My conditions for executing the Stop are the following:

1) Breach downwards of CURRENT Small Support Area (2240-2450)
2) Breach of top of Mid Support Area (2197.188)
3) Test and/or breaching of Stop Price (2076)
4) Breach of Blue Trend Line (As of writting this update: 1990)

All 4 conditions, specially number 4, should be met for me to consider executing my Stop. Of course, waiting for no.4 to happen before no.3 seems suicidal, but I'm ok with that, I would still be in profit. In the mean time, I consider this a correction inside the Trend, giving a buying opportunity. I would expect price moving inside Small Support during the rest of the day and possibly until next week.

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Forgot to add something IMPORTANT!

This correction might not help the daily RSI! so, extra care with that if you are considering an entry here!

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15min Chart

Got filled! hope this correction continues. Wouldn't mind it going a bit lower as long as it doesn't fill my 4 conditions. Still, stay on the lookout for any major Bear signal.

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1hour Chart

Are we getting a proper correction now? Trend still not broken. No panic, just wait and see. This is as healthy as it can be now. Seems like a crazy drop but BTC was going way too high way too fast. Might actually be a good entry here.

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Sorry for the silence

5min Chart

We've just had a pretty sweet correction. Too bad I only got 1 buy order filled, however I'm still not sure that this correction is over, even though we've already had 2 breakouts from the dip's downtrend.

Price is bumping against some resistance originated from the dip, plus doji candles, suggest it might yet not be ready to continue upwards, however that is not a guarantee that it will dip some more.

Still have buying orders at 2611 and 2675, but I might be wishing for something that just won't happen...

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5min Chart

Funny... as soon as I update here it breaks resistance. Now I will consider a buy at 2720 - 2770

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5min Chart

This new blue line seems to hold up better. Price might bounce from here, so I sold a bit more in hopes of buying at around 2720-2770. Tight stop at 2825.

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5min Chart

Well... there goes my trade. Still managed to sell at 2888 and rebuy at 2730, that was a nice one.

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15min Chart

Still quite unsure about that Small Support Area. It bounced off way to quickly from it, making me think that the correction is still not over. I believe it can still go back to the low 2700s high 2600s area, Mid Support.

We will see how it manages Small Resistance. If it ends up resting inside Small Resistance then I will most probably assume that the correction is over. Top or near the top of Small Resistance might also be the selling opportunity that I was looking for in my last update.

orangestar4aC

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