Bitcoin's Bearish Volume is still the issue.
Volume and trend lines gives us, really, about 90% of everything we need for good trading. The Volume Profile, Visible Range, On Balance Volume with EMAs, And Money Flow Index give us a lot of information on volume action and each trend line on this chart is at least two years old. I like to use Kraken as its reputation as the least spoofed and most secure crypto site so I trust its volume data above other tickers on tradingview. None of these indicators work if you don't trust the volume data, so that is a major caveat to this analysis.
Key thing to notice: During the massive bull run of $300 to $19,000 the price action hopped on top of the Upper Value Area and rode it as support all the way up, and it was when that upper value area failed as support that we entered the bear market. Since mid 2018 the Upper Value Area has continued to act as dynamic resistance and buyers have not stepped up above this area. If we include the whole kraken data for xbtust (shown below) we can see that the bull run starts when the price action mounts the upper value area. We can also see that price action got very tight before that happened, with the candles touching both upper and lower value areas. That combination of price and and volume action does not currently exist.
The OBV with EMAs clearly show hidden bullish divergence from the peak in June 2019 to today. The Money Flow indev, which is nick-named the Volume Adjusted RSI shows hidden bullish divergence and the fast MFI is in over-bought territory.
The rising black trend line has acted as support from late 2015 and is only just now beginning to act as resistance. Given we are at resistance of the VPVR upper value area, the triangle resistance, and this black trend line the most likely thing I would suppose would happen is a pull back to either the symmetrical triangle support or the next High Volume Node/Point of Control on the VPVR.
This prognosis is negated if the price action some how mounts the black trend line again, tests it as support, which means that it has gotten above both the falling resistance of the triangle as well as the Upper Value Area. Should that happen a very long and sustained multi-year move to the upside becomes very high probability. But now that isn't in the charts.
Key thing to notice: During the massive bull run of $300 to $19,000 the price action hopped on top of the Upper Value Area and rode it as support all the way up, and it was when that upper value area failed as support that we entered the bear market. Since mid 2018 the Upper Value Area has continued to act as dynamic resistance and buyers have not stepped up above this area. If we include the whole kraken data for xbtust (shown below) we can see that the bull run starts when the price action mounts the upper value area. We can also see that price action got very tight before that happened, with the candles touching both upper and lower value areas. That combination of price and and volume action does not currently exist.
The OBV with EMAs clearly show hidden bullish divergence from the peak in June 2019 to today. The Money Flow indev, which is nick-named the Volume Adjusted RSI shows hidden bullish divergence and the fast MFI is in over-bought territory.
The rising black trend line has acted as support from late 2015 and is only just now beginning to act as resistance. Given we are at resistance of the VPVR upper value area, the triangle resistance, and this black trend line the most likely thing I would suppose would happen is a pull back to either the symmetrical triangle support or the next High Volume Node/Point of Control on the VPVR.
This prognosis is negated if the price action some how mounts the black trend line again, tests it as support, which means that it has gotten above both the falling resistance of the triangle as well as the Upper Value Area. Should that happen a very long and sustained multi-year move to the upside becomes very high probability. But now that isn't in the charts.
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