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I had my butt handed to me at the beginning of 2018. I really thought it would keep going up :(
Over the past 2 years, I learned a lot more about trading, trends, signals, and investment strategy. I currently now hold more money than I've ever had at one time in my life, all in Bitcoin , because of this chart, so I think it's safe to say that it's fairly reliable.
I bought in at around the $5000 mark this year.
If you look at my previous 4 charts (see Related Ideas below), you'll see in the earliest one of my charts that I was very early, but was ultimately not wrong. That is probably because I wasn't doing proper analysis before making a prediction. It was a stressful year LOL But, today, my friends are all kicking themselves for not listening to me. If you had even just 1 bitcoin at 5k, you would have made over 5 times that in under a year.
I assert that Bitcoin will always go up in value over time due to HALVING and INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS.
Back in 2015 when I first got very interested in Bitcoin , I didn't fully understand how it worked. So I, like most noobs, went on reddit and youtube to get the basic idea. There was a wacky guy on reddit posting his YT videos about "hyperinflation", which was a new concept to me. He was saying BTC would go to 400k in 10 years or so. That sounded crazy to me..... but I really still did not understand Bitcoin or investing. It didn't stop me from trading, but of course I didn't do so well -- I basically broke even by the time I got out in early 2018.
The biggest indicator to me was when I read about HUGE institutional investors getting into the market back in 2018 when BTC hit bottom. At the same time, the U.S. Congress had decided to treat cryptocurrency as any other tradable asset and that's about the extent of their regulation. This told me that you could trade it outside of the U.S. in places where the govt was a lot more lenient, so of course there has to be banking institutions capitalizing on this. While other govts were trying hard to figure out how to regulate it, the institutions didn't seem to care, they kept getting big investments, and I soon realized it was because they knew that if they mined now (2018) while the block reward is still good and the price of BTC is so low, they will cash in big time when the price climbs up a year or so later, especially after the halving. On top of it, mining equipment has only gotten better -- more powerful chips that use less electricity than their predecessors.
Watching a month chart like this for the past 2 years, watching the news and the reactions in the market on smaller scale charts (like 4hrs, 1hr, or day charts), setting my chart to a logarithmic scale and simply looking at the bigger picture, suddenly that guy on reddit claiming it'll go to 400k in 10 years didn't look so crazy anymore. Just looking at the trends over a 7 year period was enough to understand what's happening.
I am not here to give financial advice, this is only my opinion. But my opinion is that there will be ups and downs, always, but the bigger picture is ultimately what matters.
To sum up: to me, Bitcoin is a good long-term investment because of the hyperinflation due to halving and institutional investors' dependency on it. We'll probably see BTC hit a ridiculously high price in mid to late 2021 if things continue to repeat themselves. However, it's great to pay attention to the popular technical traders' predictions and take some of your winnings when it hits a new ATH , just to be safe. There will be another dip, you can buy back in there and make more profit.
I promise to do more technical analysis when I get better at it. I have taken a break from day trading to focus on my company, but if you look at some of my older charts you'll see I made some decent trades simply by looking for typical chart patterns and other typical indicators. I can only speculate that the reason those patterns and indicators work is because the market is so unregulated that it often falls naturally into these patterns.
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