BTC momentum & Q4 Analysis (read below)
Analysis: Most specualtors and traders alike expect BTC to reach a point of trend reversal. And although we were expecting a reversal earlier, we imposed a 2900-3000 'bottom' (the 2017 uptrend level) for that reversal to begin. Nevertheless, our valuation is that Bitcoin will drop below those levels to a old 'mean' average of anywhere between 1900-1200. Overall, it would have to be an explosive catalyst for the trend to become an overall Bullish Trend again. We still sit in an OVERALL bearish TREND, although chart pattern shows a double bottom which has points to a bullish MOMENTUM. IN the US, SEC regulatory climate may be creating more 'fear' in retail trader action. While the overall landscape of crypto markets are down, some have moved the Alts prices, contributing to the a current bullish sentiment for BTC . Nevertheless, let's see what the DATA shows us.
Fundamentals: BULLISH
Demand Levels at 3000, 2500, and 1900 may be the major levels to change the TREND. VOLATILITY is at 5.88%, matching the March 2017 bullish move. NVT is under the mean average, which historically calls for a bullish pivot in price. Market Cap 62Bn, matching Sept 2017 (start of Uptrend).
Technical Analysis: BEARISH
EMA 200/50 still in bearish trend, however 26/50 heading into a bullish crossing (consider this momentum).
Stoch RSI Long term Bearish, however currently sitting in overbought and bullish momentum. Only place left to go is towards to equilibrium and of course, and oversold threshold
Fibonacci shows a short term gains into a 3600 - 3800 level, with a large pullback to about 3300.
Sentiment: BEARISH shortterm, BULLISH longterm
Financial institutions interested in crypto are still for the most part, on the fence on crypto. The underlying issues that would need to be resolved prior to these market makers capturing the market will be: 1) a clear regulatory framework 2) risk factors such as custodial and insurance 3) viable and legal marketplaces (especially US based). Lacking of all of these assurances, the financial institutions will most likely not pour liquidity into any markets. That being said - they will still take advantage of the opportunity in crypto and bitcoin. As so, we expect the Bakkt, ERis, Fidelity, and AmeriTrade marketplaces to add to the volume and demand in crypto, but our assessment is it will only be on a short term. Nevertheless, this is still a good data point for a bullish market. Insitutional investors, buy cheap. The question remains, how cheap can Bitcoin go.
In addition, most crypto investors from last year are at a 70-90% loss (including large crypto funds), while the institutional shorts have slowed. Panic selling is still very much part of the landscape. For now, we consider the market sentiment in fear - with some panic selling, along with major consolidation. BUT, keep in mind, this commonly contributes to an accumulation phase.
Feel free to contribute to this data at any time with comments and technical conclusions.
About me: I'm an equities trader ( ETF & Vix ) for asset mgt , eur/gbp/usd/cad forex trader at a prop room, and crypto trader for myself.
Been in crypto since Sept 2016. I contribute as a guest, to crypto market updates on the Crypto Cowboys channel on Youtube.
Fundamentals: BULLISH
Demand Levels at 3000, 2500, and 1900 may be the major levels to change the TREND. VOLATILITY is at 5.88%, matching the March 2017 bullish move. NVT is under the mean average, which historically calls for a bullish pivot in price. Market Cap 62Bn, matching Sept 2017 (start of Uptrend).
Technical Analysis: BEARISH
EMA 200/50 still in bearish trend, however 26/50 heading into a bullish crossing (consider this momentum).
Stoch RSI Long term Bearish, however currently sitting in overbought and bullish momentum. Only place left to go is towards to equilibrium and of course, and oversold threshold
Fibonacci shows a short term gains into a 3600 - 3800 level, with a large pullback to about 3300.
Sentiment: BEARISH shortterm, BULLISH longterm
Financial institutions interested in crypto are still for the most part, on the fence on crypto. The underlying issues that would need to be resolved prior to these market makers capturing the market will be: 1) a clear regulatory framework 2) risk factors such as custodial and insurance 3) viable and legal marketplaces (especially US based). Lacking of all of these assurances, the financial institutions will most likely not pour liquidity into any markets. That being said - they will still take advantage of the opportunity in crypto and bitcoin. As so, we expect the Bakkt, ERis, Fidelity, and AmeriTrade marketplaces to add to the volume and demand in crypto, but our assessment is it will only be on a short term. Nevertheless, this is still a good data point for a bullish market. Insitutional investors, buy cheap. The question remains, how cheap can Bitcoin go.
In addition, most crypto investors from last year are at a 70-90% loss (including large crypto funds), while the institutional shorts have slowed. Panic selling is still very much part of the landscape. For now, we consider the market sentiment in fear - with some panic selling, along with major consolidation. BUT, keep in mind, this commonly contributes to an accumulation phase.
Feel free to contribute to this data at any time with comments and technical conclusions.
About me: I'm an equities trader ( ETF & Vix ) for asset mgt , eur/gbp/usd/cad forex trader at a prop room, and crypto trader for myself.
Been in crypto since Sept 2016. I contribute as a guest, to crypto market updates on the Crypto Cowboys channel on Youtube.
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