BTC (XBT) USD Bear Market Scenarios
Updated
Assuming that 69K USD turns out to be the top of this latest 
BTC bull run and we are not in the midst of a bear market - the key question is how low can we go?
Here I offer up two scenarios which are using the bar pattern from the last crash in 2018/19:
Scenario 1 (orange bars) - mimics the length and severity of the last crash
- Copied bar pattern and retained the same time period
- Elongated the pattern so that the drop represents an 83% drop to replicate the drop from the previous crash
- This would take price back to 11K at end of 2022
Scenario 2 (purple bars) - mimics the length but severity is lower than last crash
- Copied bar pattern and retained the same time period. Stretched pattern to fit recent support / resistance levels which represents a 53% drop
- This would take price back to 32K at end of 2022
Main Analysis in support of Scenario 1
- The VPVR (volume buying at price level) was really high at 11K.
- The current global financial / economic situation is expecting a rough 2022 - so far Bitcoin has not been a safe haven asset. If the stock market bleeds throughout 2022 then Bitcoin may well follow suit.
Main Analysis in support of Scenario 2
- Pattern fit from current market top to current price level maps very closely to the first part of the move in the last crash. This coincides with a good support level at 38K. The pattern then maps perfectly to the use the next support level of 32K.
- Size of the cycles seems is reducing 1000% moves up in previous cycles to only 250% moves this cycle (20K - 69K). Size of the drop is also likely to reduce. This reflects the continued maturity of the market = less FOMO and fear.
There are of course a multitude of other scenarios that could play out.
Of the two I outline above I feel it is more probable that we see scenario 2 play out. This is not investment advise. DYOR always.
Really keen to hear other peoples views.
BTC bull run and we are not in the midst of a bear market - the key question is how low can we go?Here I offer up two scenarios which are using the bar pattern from the last crash in 2018/19:
Scenario 1 (orange bars) - mimics the length and severity of the last crash
- Copied bar pattern and retained the same time period
- Elongated the pattern so that the drop represents an 83% drop to replicate the drop from the previous crash
- This would take price back to 11K at end of 2022
Scenario 2 (purple bars) - mimics the length but severity is lower than last crash
- Copied bar pattern and retained the same time period. Stretched pattern to fit recent support / resistance levels which represents a 53% drop
- This would take price back to 32K at end of 2022
Main Analysis in support of Scenario 1
- The VPVR (volume buying at price level) was really high at 11K.
- The current global financial / economic situation is expecting a rough 2022 - so far Bitcoin has not been a safe haven asset. If the stock market bleeds throughout 2022 then Bitcoin may well follow suit.
Main Analysis in support of Scenario 2
- Pattern fit from current market top to current price level maps very closely to the first part of the move in the last crash. This coincides with a good support level at 38K. The pattern then maps perfectly to the use the next support level of 32K.
- Size of the cycles seems is reducing 1000% moves up in previous cycles to only 250% moves this cycle (20K - 69K). Size of the drop is also likely to reduce. This reflects the continued maturity of the market = less FOMO and fear.
There are of course a multitude of other scenarios that could play out.
Of the two I outline above I feel it is more probable that we see scenario 2 play out. This is not investment advise. DYOR always.
Really keen to hear other peoples views.
Note
Price so far is fitting into Scenario 2. Price is at a critical point.
If we can break higher out of the current range (i.e. above 48K) then technically speaking we will be out of the bear market (according to many measures, e.g. 20w EMA).
If price fails then we might see the slow bleed out similar to that in 2018/19 as shown with the purple bars. Short term sentiment seems to have turned bullish but given the current geopolitical climate I wouldn't rule this out.
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