Time taken to jump 50% is halving
I got this idea from Chris Dunn on Youtube (Thanks!)
The general idea is that the ATH in a cycle is more or less >50% high than the dump in the cycle. Hence the ticker chart can be broken up periods where the start is defined by the first time the price broke the lowest level and the end is defined by when the price finally broke out on its way to a new ATH. As we've been ramping up, the length of a period for entering a range and leaving the range has decreased. Recently the periods have been halving. The last +50% period was a 17 day period, and this current one is well placed to become a ~9 day period, ending on the 12th of December at a height of >$16000. If we extrapolate (which is very dangerous) then the next to periods will be 4-5 and 2-3 days. If we increase 50% in each period, BTC will be at price of around ~40k by the 20th of December. Stronger growth than this is rather doubtful, and quite frankly unsustainable.
Furthermore, by this stage we will have reached the 4x price increase in a month that was seen shortly before both crashes in 2013 (the red box). Monthly growth rates of 3x were seen several days before each crash. The squeeze of this timescale decrease should come to had in the next week or two - just in time for the Futures markets to come into play. Maybe they'll be the trigger for the next crash. Who knows? Only time will tell.
That said, I've started placing a sell stops below what could be considered the new daily dip and as soon as we start seeing lower highs, I'll probably cash out. Lets see how far up we get before gravity kicks in.
The data for this graph can be seen below
Start End Low High Days (High-Low)/Low
28/10/15 28/05/16 300 490 213 0.6333333333
28/05/16 17/12/16 480 730 203 0.5208333333
21/12/16 25/04/17 756 1311 125 0.7341269841
11/05/17 05/08/17 1809 2908 86 0.6075179657
05/08/17 12/10/17 2995 4965 68 0.6577629382
12/10/17 16/11/17 5132 7788 35 0.5175370226
16/11/17 03/12/17 7617 11380 17 0.4940265196
The general idea is that the ATH in a cycle is more or less >50% high than the dump in the cycle. Hence the ticker chart can be broken up periods where the start is defined by the first time the price broke the lowest level and the end is defined by when the price finally broke out on its way to a new ATH. As we've been ramping up, the length of a period for entering a range and leaving the range has decreased. Recently the periods have been halving. The last +50% period was a 17 day period, and this current one is well placed to become a ~9 day period, ending on the 12th of December at a height of >$16000. If we extrapolate (which is very dangerous) then the next to periods will be 4-5 and 2-3 days. If we increase 50% in each period, BTC will be at price of around ~40k by the 20th of December. Stronger growth than this is rather doubtful, and quite frankly unsustainable.
Furthermore, by this stage we will have reached the 4x price increase in a month that was seen shortly before both crashes in 2013 (the red box). Monthly growth rates of 3x were seen several days before each crash. The squeeze of this timescale decrease should come to had in the next week or two - just in time for the Futures markets to come into play. Maybe they'll be the trigger for the next crash. Who knows? Only time will tell.
That said, I've started placing a sell stops below what could be considered the new daily dip and as soon as we start seeing lower highs, I'll probably cash out. Lets see how far up we get before gravity kicks in.
The data for this graph can be seen below
Start End Low High Days (High-Low)/Low
28/10/15 28/05/16 300 490 213 0.6333333333
28/05/16 17/12/16 480 730 203 0.5208333333
21/12/16 25/04/17 756 1311 125 0.7341269841
11/05/17 05/08/17 1809 2908 86 0.6075179657
05/08/17 12/10/17 2995 4965 68 0.6577629382
12/10/17 16/11/17 5132 7788 35 0.5175370226
16/11/17 03/12/17 7617 11380 17 0.4940265196
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