BTCUSD :: Bull's Failed Longs Killing BTC
Updated
Bitcoin margin traders have been the primary cause of volatility, it would seem.
What I see here is that for the most part, bears have much less impact on the market than the bulls (I would have thought the reverse!). True, a big bear paw helped knock BTC off the high horse, but the next day bulls started a path of self-destruction. This battle played out for a bit, with the bears seeming more strategic and the late coming bulls having major FOMO. The early bulls falsely inflated the CCI which was easy to do the day after all those shorts opened.
The price continued to go downward as people took their profits before they weren't profits anymore and this caused a lot of bull nuts to be squeezed. Everyone decided to give it another shot and, you can see that as L&S activity stabilizes the market tries to return to normality...which has been a down trend but it's trying to normalize the 6-11K range.
The long bulls finally gave up in the last week of march, falsely *deflating* the market as they had done previously.
At this point every has had their ass torn from both directions and I'm lmfao at how all these smart people out smart themselves. I, having no financial eduction or even skills or responsibility, have also had my ass handed to me so .. This pot is also black.
Everyone had a good LOOONG as week to analyze the crap out of every micro & macro pattern possible and a lot that aren't.
As mentioned, the bears seemed more strategic and you can see that a large number of shorts were opened at the PERFECT time.. when the 100 MA is crossing the 200 .. AND the market is hitting nearly 200 on the CCI.
The rest of the week was mostly Joe Blow grabbing big handful of FOMO. He's the one who is going to cry elephant tears. :(
We're at a crazy pinnacle of resistances from literally every direction and that hammer is super crazy ready to pounce on a market full of bulls who have run out of steam driving their precious lambo straight into the ground.
Ironic eh?
What I see here is that for the most part, bears have much less impact on the market than the bulls (I would have thought the reverse!). True, a big bear paw helped knock BTC off the high horse, but the next day bulls started a path of self-destruction. This battle played out for a bit, with the bears seeming more strategic and the late coming bulls having major FOMO. The early bulls falsely inflated the CCI which was easy to do the day after all those shorts opened.
The price continued to go downward as people took their profits before they weren't profits anymore and this caused a lot of bull nuts to be squeezed. Everyone decided to give it another shot and, you can see that as L&S activity stabilizes the market tries to return to normality...which has been a down trend but it's trying to normalize the 6-11K range.
The long bulls finally gave up in the last week of march, falsely *deflating* the market as they had done previously.
At this point every has had their ass torn from both directions and I'm lmfao at how all these smart people out smart themselves. I, having no financial eduction or even skills or responsibility, have also had my ass handed to me so .. This pot is also black.
Everyone had a good LOOONG as week to analyze the crap out of every micro & macro pattern possible and a lot that aren't.
As mentioned, the bears seemed more strategic and you can see that a large number of shorts were opened at the PERFECT time.. when the 100 MA is crossing the 200 .. AND the market is hitting nearly 200 on the CCI.
The rest of the week was mostly Joe Blow grabbing big handful of FOMO. He's the one who is going to cry elephant tears. :(
We're at a crazy pinnacle of resistances from literally every direction and that hammer is super crazy ready to pounce on a market full of bulls who have run out of steam driving their precious lambo straight into the ground.
Ironic eh?
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BTC just got clobbered by the 100 MA which has crossed the 200.. put the nail in the coffin.Note
Also note the squeeze moment, MACDs an drop off in volume support this catastrophe in the making.Approximate supports in descending order:
8700
8500
7800
6700 (my target)
5400
4500
3400
2200
1200
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A large amount of shorts just opened at a very strategic opporunity. It's downhill till morning, the 15m, 1H & 4H MACDs have all crossed negative and a pile of red reversal candles surround a couple little green wannabes.. Additionally, the 100 MA beat BTC over the head AFTER crossing under the 200 MA. Currently trapped between the 100 from above the the 50 from below, I have a tight stop as well as a conservative take. I expect some more desperate efforts to keep this Ponzi scheme alive a bit long. :x
You never know though.. I have definitely seen BTC cannons shooting the moon.. but.. the masses certainly aren't jumping on this train again any time soon.. which leaves the miners..
THEY desire to save BTC at all costs, if they are still riding this dead horse. However.. ask yourself this..
You made 500 million bux last year selling off BTC you've been mining for years. Now the market is tanked, mining is retardedly difficult and expensive.
You have 500 million dollars..and maybe a few hundred thousand BTC left. Do you rebuy all the coins you sold, so you can watch your 500 million go to 10 million and 750 million and back again in the matter of a few days... or do you just pocket your loot, consider yourself lucky and forget all about wth a BTC even is?
I'd take the loot.
Note
BTW, if you look at the "Big Squeeze of '18" (TM) you will see that the liquidation of all the shorts (trying to keep bears drving all coins shortable to 0), popped stop losses on all the longs causing both to crash and the price to rise dramatically.Summary:
Exchanges = $^3
Users = -$*leverage
Unregulated markets..you want to be the guy with the gun.
Note
As longs & shorts (L&S) flatline for a bit... BTC tries to return to 0 CCI.Note
Ton of longs just closed.Note
L&S WarNote
A bunch of shorts opened..a little price drop, more shorts open.. they're still open.Right after, a bunch of longs closed... then there is a bad double candle where a bunch of longs open then close immediately on an unrelated price dip. This trigger more longs closing... panic selling is imminent I think.
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Game. Over.Note
Next drop @ 22:15 EST :( lolNote
Drop just started.Note
"Headhunter" by Front 242 ;DNote
How this battle works and why bears will win.. with image.Note
Second wave of bears about to strike. Kiss your MACD good bye!Note
Longs starting to close.. divergence increasing.Note
Calm before the storm. As the MACD tapers down naturally, the now timid bulls will try again but with smaller amounts and tigher stop losses. Then the bears drop the HAMMER and the bulls will be quite depressed by the end of the 4H.BTW, I'm not trying to contribute to the downfall of my favorite coins. I'm just trying not to get my ass tore up again and understand how all this bs works before I run out of equity, lol.
Maybe I"m wrong.. I've only been serious about TA since oh.. about the start of this false rally kicked off by the liquidation!
Maybe I'm not tho.. I have a very high certified IQ (Mensa+) and while it doesn't mean I have any common sense or make good decisions.. it does mean that I am very good at pattern identification, logic and problem solving.
Plus.. I've been debugging the cloud via New Relic charts for the past 18 months.. :D
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You can see the bull traps in the order book, lol. When longs close the sell wall doesn't move down.. they wait for the limit sell at the short resistance and pop the fresh shorts w/paranoid stop losses, lol.This whole system is super crazy!
About 7 days after the "Great Liquidation of '18" (TM), I found a russian doll bot pattern in the 15m/1H/4H charts. I told my friends I found Morpheus. :D
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Asian markets just opened.. good morning bull trap!Note
Nice fat green candle and no longs opened. Bear grabs nice position on the next bar. Image attached.Note
Timid bulls in asia.. just sniffing the air. Kinda smells like rain..Note
All RSI & CCI are on the floor. 1H MACD as well, 15M just peaked and 4H downtrend gaining momentum.. will the bears strike at the bottom of this 15m cycle, or wait for the next one?Note
Earlier, before I started following this cycle.. I determined the longest the market will stand is about this time Thursday morning EST. In the meantime, there is no escape.. just putting more honey in the picnic basket.Note
2 hours until next cycle.. accumulation phase. Time to rest for a bit.Note
What's different about this year's cycle juxtaposed with previous yearly cycles? Answer: Capital gains tax. Good night. Don't stop loss your shorts, no pain no gain!Note
Guess who's thinking about taking profits as they watch this catastrophe unfold? Not the ones sitting shorts.Note
Game. Over. All evidence attached. Server is going to crash!Note
04:20? That would be ironic, wouldn't it?Note
Oh boy, look at that poor order book! This is going to be insane.Trade active
This should be the last uncomfortable turn of the 15M MACD that the broke ass bulls can handle.Note
The whole story! Before it happens and before you see the face on the reports on TV that talked moon talk! Images & detailed analysis of the L&S war in a UWHD image. Enjoy!Note
Cascade failure will occur within this or the next hour's bar.. just in time to shock the market!Note
L&S convergence..a bit of volatility then a good sized drop towards the 50 MA.Note
L&S convergence, that was quick! A bunch of longs open, immediately a bunch a bunch of shorts swat them down. Price dropping, Bear shorting power x 2.Trade active
Very little buying pressure. L&S divergence, bears on top again. Last downtrend lasted about 9 hours and started with a monster reversal HA candle. Support and resistance is very tight, don't get your stop loss popped by large contradicting double candles using market orders to spike the books!Also, wave two of MACD "Trifecta of Death" is about to start.. look out!
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1D 50MA has made a strong curve away from the 200.. Game over!!!Last time to take profit or short @ 8900 level is RIGHT NOW!!
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Next lane change should occur in the next 2 hours... 20:45? 21:15? Grab a short and wait for the big drop which you'll know has ended because it throws up a bean pole like "HEY, CYCLE COMPLETE! CALLING ALL SUCKERS..I MEAN.. BUYERS!"Note
Imagine how that green bar guy feels... YES I'M GOING ALL IN!! LAMBOOOO!! <botsmack!> Tears rain.Note
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Ohhhhh...or the bot might be harvesting both sides of the SL coin!Note
That spike just caused a bunch of long leveraged poitions to open... and closed a fair amout of bear SL spots. Hammer time.Note
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An interesting alternative pattern.. are they bull traps? Bear traps? Both?Botnet want ALL teh moneyz.
<deleted> courtesy of streetgainer
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<deleted>Trade closed manually
Approaching the 200 MA with authority and the bulls just firmly took the upper hand. The short orders are probably going to taper off as fast as the longs start opening so I expect the 200 MA not to pose much of a problem.Blood moon is over, et the lambos rain!
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It is not even funny! Here is the map to the game!! Grab you n00tz and blow your mind!
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