Long
Dubious Speculation: XEMUSD LONG
Updated
* Very dubious speculation.
* Nonetheless, XEMUSD's behaviour during this BTCUSD bullrun is very similar to the previous.
* XEMUSD's behaviour during the 1st half of this BTCUSD bullrun and its behaviour during this mid-cycle consolidation period--temporal milestones as measured per BTCUSD and NOT XEMUSD--are both very similar to that of the last BTCUSD bullrun.
* Fundamentally, XEM is facing many problems, and XEMUSD will probably not hit the top of the channel by the end of this bullrun.
* However, there is a probability that it may hit mid-channel.
* If history is any indication, and XEMUSD follows last bullrun's Fib levels, then (and serendipitiously) both Fib and mid-channel meet at $4.99.
* For a decent chance of this thesis materialising, watch the weekly RSI.
* Nonetheless, XEMUSD's behaviour during this BTCUSD bullrun is very similar to the previous.
* XEMUSD's behaviour during the 1st half of this BTCUSD bullrun and its behaviour during this mid-cycle consolidation period--temporal milestones as measured per BTCUSD and NOT XEMUSD--are both very similar to that of the last BTCUSD bullrun.
* Fundamentally, XEM is facing many problems, and XEMUSD will probably not hit the top of the channel by the end of this bullrun.
* However, there is a probability that it may hit mid-channel.
* If history is any indication, and XEMUSD follows last bullrun's Fib levels, then (and serendipitiously) both Fib and mid-channel meet at $4.99.
* For a decent chance of this thesis materialising, watch the weekly RSI.
Note
This seems to be playing out on the daily. What a sleeper coin.Note
* The MAs crossed in the correct order on 31 Oct'21 (8D SMA over the 20D EMA over the 20D SMA).* Since then, XEMUSD has been bouncing off the 8D SMA.
* Things seem to be aligning.
* Is this the beginning of a more serious pump?
Note
Wakey wakey...Note
It is of note that XEM appreciated against ETH during the recent mini dip. The weekly MAs are getting bullish. But damn, what a laggard!Note
Just posting an analysis from tradingview.com/u/KavehTorabi/ which provides a similar thesis, but from the BTC perspective.
Note
Let's be patient and see if Harlock will allow us to break the trendline established since May'19. See how it turned from resistance to support during end-20 to early-21 prior to the XYM fork.Note
Very surprisingly and interestingly, both parallel channels have held.Note
Thesis invalidated.
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