Short XLE
Investors are piling back into energy along with other inflation trades. There's a large gap down to $90.50 area. Crude oil, shown here by USO, has also tumbled.
Trade is off if XLE makes a new high or USO/crude oil turns up. Press into a short position if crude breaks below $65.
Could also work as a pair trade for those bullish on oil, going long USO.
Trade is off if XLE makes a new high or USO/crude oil turns up. Press into a short position if crude breaks below $65.
Could also work as a pair trade for those bullish on oil, going long USO.
Note
Oil and XLE up again today on reports of a new missile hitting Ukraine. The gap between XLE and USO has widened further though, and XLE is hitting overbought on daily RSI. Trade active
Looks like the trade is a go as of today. I am in weekly puts. XLE has about 5% to close the gap, the performance gap with USO is around 8 percent. If CL breaks $65, could turn into a larger correction of 10% or more.
Another development: USDRUB looks like it wants to breakout and run towards 120. Most likely catalyst would be the bottom dropping out on oil.
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