Nothing Looks Bullish About XLM...Hmmmm
Updated
It's true. Nothing looks good about the XLMBTC chart. Even looking at the XLMUSD chart, we're still trapped in the bearish channel, unlike many other cryptocurrencies, including ETH. That's pretty nuts. Here's the USD chart:
Zoomed in on the daily with a couple possible scenarios:
In my opinion, XLM is primed for an AMAZING trading opportunity. A lot of money will be made if it breaks down OR if it breaks out to the upside. Since the market has generally been bullish, my bias is to the upside (hence posting this as a long setup), but on the Bitcoin chart it has a long way to fall (all the way to 1300 if 2000 does not hold).
On the XLMBTC chart, it looks undeniably bearish. It couldn't even hold above its broken downtrends (light blue and red), even on massive buying volume (circled in green). That buying volume is important though. It means A LOT of people bought XLM when it was at that point in time. Remember, it was still well below 10 cents there. Holding above 11 cents is still fairly bullish. If it continues to hold, and we push above the channel resistance, it would complete a massive inverse head and shoulders pattern, as you can see in the chart I posted above. This is why I added the XLMUSD chart to this analysis, as it tells a bit of a different story. Just as LTC, ETH, NEO, and many others broke out of their bearish channels, I see no reason why XLM can't do the same.
For XLM to break down at this point, there will have to be a fundamental reason why it is not deserving of value. Seeing as it has just as much speculative value as many other coins that have been doing better, I see it as currently undervalued. I could be very wrong though. The next stop if XLM breaks the long term ascending support (purple) is potentially the bottom of the channel (red X), and the 5 cents zone. From there, I would look for the final bottom, if we have not seen it already.
This is not financial advice. This is something I've been looking at for a while. XLM has failed to remain as bullish as I had been expecting (and as such is one of my worst calls), but that doesn't stop me from wanting to analyze it and nail this thing down once and for all.
At the bottom, you can find the analyses where I called the breakdown from 3500 all the way to 2000, as well as suggesting that we had found a bottom when XLM was near $0.07, and that it also meant that the rest of the market had possibly bottomed. Even though the rest of the market outperformed XLM, this indicator turned out to be true, for the time being.
-Victor Cobra
Zoomed in on the daily with a couple possible scenarios:
In my opinion, XLM is primed for an AMAZING trading opportunity. A lot of money will be made if it breaks down OR if it breaks out to the upside. Since the market has generally been bullish, my bias is to the upside (hence posting this as a long setup), but on the Bitcoin chart it has a long way to fall (all the way to 1300 if 2000 does not hold).
On the XLMBTC chart, it looks undeniably bearish. It couldn't even hold above its broken downtrends (light blue and red), even on massive buying volume (circled in green). That buying volume is important though. It means A LOT of people bought XLM when it was at that point in time. Remember, it was still well below 10 cents there. Holding above 11 cents is still fairly bullish. If it continues to hold, and we push above the channel resistance, it would complete a massive inverse head and shoulders pattern, as you can see in the chart I posted above. This is why I added the XLMUSD chart to this analysis, as it tells a bit of a different story. Just as LTC, ETH, NEO, and many others broke out of their bearish channels, I see no reason why XLM can't do the same.
For XLM to break down at this point, there will have to be a fundamental reason why it is not deserving of value. Seeing as it has just as much speculative value as many other coins that have been doing better, I see it as currently undervalued. I could be very wrong though. The next stop if XLM breaks the long term ascending support (purple) is potentially the bottom of the channel (red X), and the 5 cents zone. From there, I would look for the final bottom, if we have not seen it already.
This is not financial advice. This is something I've been looking at for a while. XLM has failed to remain as bullish as I had been expecting (and as such is one of my worst calls), but that doesn't stop me from wanting to analyze it and nail this thing down once and for all.
At the bottom, you can find the analyses where I called the breakdown from 3500 all the way to 2000, as well as suggesting that we had found a bottom when XLM was near $0.07, and that it also meant that the rest of the market had possibly bottomed. Even though the rest of the market outperformed XLM, this indicator turned out to be true, for the time being.
-Victor Cobra
Note
2000 Was lost and no sign of a bounce yet. Doesn't look good for XLM, but you never know in this market. The next target would be the 1300-1400 area. If Bitcoin also drops here, we could easily see XLM head down to the 7 cents area or even $0.05. Would be unfortunately, but it's a possibility. Until there is a sign of a bounce, it's probably a bit risky to enter here, unless you have the balls.Note
If we do happen to bounce hard soon, it will mean that this was indeed an altcoin bear trap. However, the lack of any buyers has me very concerned about the market at the moment. Either we're extremely bearish at the moment, or very bullish. This is probably the most indecisive I've been in a while. Another big drop could really put the entire market at risk of losing many people's long term confidence, in my opinion. Maybe some would say this is necessary for "capitulation."Note
Upon the breakdown of 2000, I would have actually expected a much bigger selloff, but it hasn't really happened (yet). We're also still on low volume. I'm starting to lean more towards the bear trap version of the altcoin market (as per my recent posts).Note
All XLM needs to do here is make a 15-20% move (similar to what IOTA has just done) and break back above the downtrend resistance (light blue). If this happens, it will confirm the bear trap scenario, and I will stop being worried about a massive altcoin selloff. Note
We had a nice buy hit today (looking at volume), yet XLM's fall against Bitcoin continues. The area to breach for the bulls would be the 2050 area (to be safe). Note
On the USD chart, the large inverse head and shoulders pattern hasn't failed yet. We're still perfectly forming the right shoulder. Completion would become more likely with a move to the 12 cents zone, as that would bring us back above our long term uptrend (purple). If .135 is broken, .18 could follow fairly quickly. Note
Getting close to a POTENTIAL reversal against Bitcoin. Just noticed this wedge pattern. A breakout would likely occur above the 1800 level. Still have a ways to go. Note
Has even more validity when drawn this way: Note
Still in a bit of a falling wedge. The weekly RSI is starting to diverge slightly - lower low without a lower low in the RSI. Note
If we don't bounce now, we should see some large buying occur in the 1000-1300 price range, as indicated by previous reactions to those levels (not seen for a long time).
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