Stellar Finally Breaks The Bearish Channel! (XLM)
Updated
Aha! So the dip below the long term ascending support was a fakeout after all. I posted a few bearish ideas recently, giving an idea of what could happen if the market failed to recover here. However, it's fairly clear at this point that the market is recovering. Today we had some pretty insane gains for altcoins - gains that have not been seen in quite a while. Congrats to those who have been buying throughout the bear market. Odds are, if you have been DCAing, you're finally seeing some profits!
On the XLMBTC chart, I pointed out that XLM had hardly any support until the 1300 area after it broke below 2000. Despite the selloff on the Bitcoin ratio, XLM remained relatively stable in its USD valuation. Additionally, the buying volume when XLM was in the 7 cents zone was so powerful that it was clear to me that a lot of demand existed down there --- in which case I thought it likely that was the bottom on its USD chart. This is why I did not sell. I also posted an educational analysis about why the selloffs on altcoins could be bear traps. These were low volume selloffs that simply had to do with Bitcoin's rise. People were not necessarily trading their altcoins much. That "terminal shakeout" analysis is linked at bottom.
Anyway, XLM is simultaneously breaking out of an enormous inverse head and shoulders pattern AND its downtrend channel. Based on the bullish momentum of the market, this should not be taken lightly. This perfectly explains the massive buying momentum once the $0.137 level was breached. Further targets are illustrated on this chart. The next resistance is in the 18 cents zone, and above that there's 30 cents. However, just as Bitcoin smashed through 6K and 7K, it's possible XLM heads straight up and smashes through that whole consolidation zone as if it didn't even exist. That was the accumulation area for many months, so there may actually not be much sell pressure once we make it there. I guess we'll see. On the downside, if the support is broken again (currently near 12 cents), and if we break back into the bearish channel, that would be a bad sign. So far, there's no reason to assume this will happen.
On the contrary, it seems more likely that XLM could make an attempt at its all-time-high sooner than expected.
This is speculation and based on my own opinion. This should not be taken as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
On the XLMBTC chart, I pointed out that XLM had hardly any support until the 1300 area after it broke below 2000. Despite the selloff on the Bitcoin ratio, XLM remained relatively stable in its USD valuation. Additionally, the buying volume when XLM was in the 7 cents zone was so powerful that it was clear to me that a lot of demand existed down there --- in which case I thought it likely that was the bottom on its USD chart. This is why I did not sell. I also posted an educational analysis about why the selloffs on altcoins could be bear traps. These were low volume selloffs that simply had to do with Bitcoin's rise. People were not necessarily trading their altcoins much. That "terminal shakeout" analysis is linked at bottom.
Anyway, XLM is simultaneously breaking out of an enormous inverse head and shoulders pattern AND its downtrend channel. Based on the bullish momentum of the market, this should not be taken lightly. This perfectly explains the massive buying momentum once the $0.137 level was breached. Further targets are illustrated on this chart. The next resistance is in the 18 cents zone, and above that there's 30 cents. However, just as Bitcoin smashed through 6K and 7K, it's possible XLM heads straight up and smashes through that whole consolidation zone as if it didn't even exist. That was the accumulation area for many months, so there may actually not be much sell pressure once we make it there. I guess we'll see. On the downside, if the support is broken again (currently near 12 cents), and if we break back into the bearish channel, that would be a bad sign. So far, there's no reason to assume this will happen.
On the contrary, it seems more likely that XLM could make an attempt at its all-time-high sooner than expected.
This is speculation and based on my own opinion. This should not be taken as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Note
By the way, here is the analysis where I said XLM bouncing at 7 cents was a good indicator that the market could be about to reverse: 
Note
Not surprising that XLM is struggling at this major resistance area, but it seems like it could be building some buying pressure, as long as it doesn't go much below 13 cents. If XLM is going to move up, this is the kind of move I would expect. It needs to have a confirm break of that pink downtrend resistance first. Note
So yet again, XLM has failed to hold above its downtrend, unlike a lot of other altcoins. If we don’t get a push back above soon, XLM risks falling back down to test the 7 cents area, or even 5 cents.Note
If bulls can hold the current level above 12 cents (resistance turned support) then perhaps we can break the downtrend once and for all. I don’t see any reason why XLM can’t do this, considering most other prominent alts have done it already.
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