Was bearish on XMR for a while, but the market conditions seemed to have changed. Very nice fake out down below support, but zooming out it just looks like a higher low, and now we have finally broken through horizontal resistance we failed to break through 3 times prior. Looks like the market may cool down after such huge panic buying, but this does look like it is going much higher eventually.
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the second higher 1 is a mistake, please ignore it : )Note
Hmm interesting, did not think wave E was over based on the zoomed in view but now we just made a new high. We are at resistance from the blue dotted trendline now though:Lets see if the price can break through this trendline and close above it...if not it means I am still correct and wave E is not over yet.
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*close below : ) Pro tip: Always look for closes in these illiquid markets. And watch out for people painting the type on teh last 30 seconds of the candle. If you are following a pair against btc, is it going down because some doof just sold or because the actual ratio of x/USD coin compared to btc/usd is going down. If that makes any sense.Note
Price bounced off my line nicely, but now heading back down a bit, thats okay as long as it doesn't break though. The one thing I caught that scares me a bit (in terms of potential for another low) is this potential cup and handle downtrend continuation pattern on the XMR/USD 4h chart:imgur.com/a/WEXNA
Not expecting it to play out, but definitely something to keep an eye on.
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Still looking okay, another 2 days until the weekly candle closes. Just need to avoid a huge dump over the next day or two. If we can do that the weekly should come out as a nice reversal candle (either a spinning top or doji).Note
Price went a bit lower, but mostly just from a lag in keeping up with bitcoin (as all alts have been doing). In my experience that is usually a sign that its only a matter of time before that changes. I don't like the way the weekly candle looks at the moment, but plenty of time before it closes and price is coming into some support here from the 50 EMA on the daily. .618 fib also in this general area. It can flash lower to touch the purple falling wedge line as well. But lets see if this reverses by the end of the day to make a nice reversal candle on the daily chart, and keep the weekly candle looking healthy:Note
Eh not exactly what I wanted to see from the weekly close. But this downtrend does look to be getting exhausted on the daily chart. I still think it should bounce over the next day or two, then we find out if the bulls will really show up: If i'm completely wrong we could go all the way to the .786 in some panic selling capitulation, but would need to break the 1.414 fib extension first. Seems unlikely.
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Look at Stoch RSI on XMR/USD from 30m chart to 2h chart to 4h chart to 1d chart...all oversold. Tough to see this lasting long, still expecting a mega bounce. Could be wrong of course : )Note
LOL oh well, can't be perfect in trading. Some people like to sell at the very end of a downtrend trend for some reason...I don't get it. Oh well, just hodl. Thought experiment, as the chart stands, you can either long or short which would you choose? Whats the better risk return? I would not want to short this with a 10 foot pole Note
welcome back buyers : )Note
Falling wedge on the daily XMR/USD chart, wave 5 on the way?invst.ly/5ei7n
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Looking great, soon all that panic selling should turn into panic buying : )Note
Price fell out of ascending triangle as all other alts broke their rising wedges, as bitcoin broke $5000 and popped everyones stops. Did make a new low, but on very low volume (bullish divergence). Decent chance that was all the low we get depending on whether or not the FOMO kicks in on bitcoin here. Note
All alts getting destroyed as btc takes off, *could be going to the 0.786 around .016 Great spot for a reversal. Yes i'm still very bullish, XMR/USD looks good to get going soon and catch up.
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I feel very confident this will reverse at some point between now and 0. For sure! : ) have a sense of humor
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If you can't maybe you're trading too much.Note
Come on Monero, you can do it! In all seriousness this looks like a good time to turn things around just objectively looking at the technicals. Of course I could be wrong, but its fairly easy to say I would rather be long this chart than short it.
If it does continue to break down the next stop would be the purple ascending trendline.
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So far so good, XMR/USD Stoch RSI is oversold on every time frame from the 30m chart up to the 1d chart...how long can that last?Note
POP!Seems more for real to me with XMR than the rest which may just be in dead cat bounces but well see.
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Could even briefly make new lows depending on the lag between xmr usd and btc breaking out.Note
Price broke down a little more as expected, looking good now, that might be all the down we get.Note
such bounce much wow! : )Note
Seems like pretty good risk reward at these prices...if you bought in around .02 and doubled down now...your average would be around .015. I think we are going much higher. The downside risk is if we make new lows. If that were to happen then its probably time to get bearish on xmr like the rest of the alts.Note
pamp it!Note
phew broke up. Looking good.Note
Price at around .017 or so..if it doesn't reverse here (still can) then maybe its a big W-X-Y pattern for wave 2 (which would allow for us to go lower). As opposed to the 1-2 and then 1-2 as last updated. But well see how it goes. Final destination is the same in my book (moon), so not really trading this.Note
chance 165 or so could reverse it but wouldnt count on it at this rate.Related publications
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.