NANO (XNO) Starting Afresh - Lean and Green
It's been a while since I posted an update on NANO. You can see the links below for previous posts on NANO, where you can see the historical price chart (not currently viewable). NANO is still one of my favorite cryptocurrencies, despite remaining in a clear downtrend and breaking the established uptrend from the previous bull market. Oddly enough, I'm actually becoming even more supportive of the project, as I lose faith in the majority of crypto achieving its original purpose. NANO is simple - no frills. It's lean and green. It does what it needs to do, at zero cost. Does it serve well as an investment? Not necessarily. As many NANO critics have pointed out over the years, there doesn't seem to really be an incentive to hold it. One cannot ignore that its limited supply with relatively poor price performance exhibits very little overall interest. Clearly, it can stagnate for a long time. Will it ever rise again in value?
Interestingly, NANO's best performance last year occurred precisely around the time Bitcoin began dropping over the summer, due to the China ban and criticisms of Bitcoin's energy usage. NANO rose from its March 2020 low of $0.25 to near $17 (almost a 200x increase). This shows that at least some traders find NANO attractive at times when Bitcoin seems less attractive. What's even more interesting is that large upside moves from NANO often precede or coincide with large drops in Bitcoin price. Recently, NANO moved up nearly 50% in a single day, which was a rare occurrence in which Bitcoin did not drop immediately afterwards. Unfortunately due to the ticker change, I can't access some of those older NANO/BTC charts to show what I'm talking about.
Arguably, a currency with a limited supply of 133 million coins necessitates DISCOURAGEMENT of hoarding, and rather ENCOURAGEMENT of spending. This is why fiat currency loses value over time - there needs to be some incentive to spend it. This is also why Bitcoin and Ethereum can't be used for everyday transactions. NANO is quite lightweight, though its tokenomics do not encourage drastic price appreciation. Despite this, the coin managed to get close to the Top 10 by market cap at the end of 2017, simply because it did what Bitcoin was meant to do originally, but better. However, these days the market cares more about scarcity and scarcity economics, than it does about utility. This is due to the entrance of big money, I'll bet on it. Big money wants something that can remain "profitable." The meme stock craze flipped this on its head, and caused a surge in value for companies that are not seen as necessarily profitable. It also caused a surge in value for meme coins like DOGE, which have far worse tokenomics than NANO. Let's not forget that a market-wide rebellion against Bitcoin and its high fees in 2017 led to the meteoric rise of RaiBlocks (XRB - Nano's former name) and other cheaper coins like XLM and XRP. Back then, people were still excited about crypto's utility, and its promise to unite the world in an unbanked utopia. These days, that vision seems quite clouded.
Since taking profit from the 2021 market run, I will focus more on cryptocurrencies that align with my values in the future. NANO is one of them. And perhaps Banano too, for the memes.
On the above charts, you can see that the ticker has changed. Formerly NANO, XNO is able to start "afresh" from a charting perspective. Now, it has the chance to shine as an option for cryptocurrency users, but it MUST have more liquidity and become more accessible to those who need it. WeNano is an incredible app, but interest seems to have waned. Unfortunately if Coinbase added NANO, it would make some other cryptocurrencies obsolete, in terms of everyday utility (such as XRP and XLM). XRP and XLM are also quite fast, but they require memos. The memo itself makes the transaction process slower. Big players probably do not want to spend the time marketing something like NANO that does not have an economic system tied to it, like Bitcoin or Ethereum. So, it remains in a difficult position.
It'll be interesting to see if this recent upside move for NANO will end up predicting a major drop for Bitcoin, as it does consistently. It will also be interesting to see if NANO can survive, once all is said and done. A lot depends on the community here. If NANO gets back to $1.10 or below, I'll probably buy some more. Supports and resistances are outlined on the above chart. There's no telling where it'll go long term. As I mentioned above, it can easily die out and hit some of those previous bear market lows. Or, it can pleasantly surprise and reach all-time high. I'd see this as a rebellion against the established market trend, as I wrote about above.
This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Interestingly, NANO's best performance last year occurred precisely around the time Bitcoin began dropping over the summer, due to the China ban and criticisms of Bitcoin's energy usage. NANO rose from its March 2020 low of $0.25 to near $17 (almost a 200x increase). This shows that at least some traders find NANO attractive at times when Bitcoin seems less attractive. What's even more interesting is that large upside moves from NANO often precede or coincide with large drops in Bitcoin price. Recently, NANO moved up nearly 50% in a single day, which was a rare occurrence in which Bitcoin did not drop immediately afterwards. Unfortunately due to the ticker change, I can't access some of those older NANO/BTC charts to show what I'm talking about.
Arguably, a currency with a limited supply of 133 million coins necessitates DISCOURAGEMENT of hoarding, and rather ENCOURAGEMENT of spending. This is why fiat currency loses value over time - there needs to be some incentive to spend it. This is also why Bitcoin and Ethereum can't be used for everyday transactions. NANO is quite lightweight, though its tokenomics do not encourage drastic price appreciation. Despite this, the coin managed to get close to the Top 10 by market cap at the end of 2017, simply because it did what Bitcoin was meant to do originally, but better. However, these days the market cares more about scarcity and scarcity economics, than it does about utility. This is due to the entrance of big money, I'll bet on it. Big money wants something that can remain "profitable." The meme stock craze flipped this on its head, and caused a surge in value for companies that are not seen as necessarily profitable. It also caused a surge in value for meme coins like DOGE, which have far worse tokenomics than NANO. Let's not forget that a market-wide rebellion against Bitcoin and its high fees in 2017 led to the meteoric rise of RaiBlocks (XRB - Nano's former name) and other cheaper coins like XLM and XRP. Back then, people were still excited about crypto's utility, and its promise to unite the world in an unbanked utopia. These days, that vision seems quite clouded.
Since taking profit from the 2021 market run, I will focus more on cryptocurrencies that align with my values in the future. NANO is one of them. And perhaps Banano too, for the memes.
On the above charts, you can see that the ticker has changed. Formerly NANO, XNO is able to start "afresh" from a charting perspective. Now, it has the chance to shine as an option for cryptocurrency users, but it MUST have more liquidity and become more accessible to those who need it. WeNano is an incredible app, but interest seems to have waned. Unfortunately if Coinbase added NANO, it would make some other cryptocurrencies obsolete, in terms of everyday utility (such as XRP and XLM). XRP and XLM are also quite fast, but they require memos. The memo itself makes the transaction process slower. Big players probably do not want to spend the time marketing something like NANO that does not have an economic system tied to it, like Bitcoin or Ethereum. So, it remains in a difficult position.
It'll be interesting to see if this recent upside move for NANO will end up predicting a major drop for Bitcoin, as it does consistently. It will also be interesting to see if NANO can survive, once all is said and done. A lot depends on the community here. If NANO gets back to $1.10 or below, I'll probably buy some more. Supports and resistances are outlined on the above chart. There's no telling where it'll go long term. As I mentioned above, it can easily die out and hit some of those previous bear market lows. Or, it can pleasantly surprise and reach all-time high. I'd see this as a rebellion against the established market trend, as I wrote about above.
This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
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