XRP Looks Precarious, But Here's a Bullish Possibility
Updated
It's been a while since I made an update on XRP/BTC. I was wrong for most of this year in assuming XRP would hold higher levels against Bitcoin. Not only has it failed to do that, but it hasn't really moved at all in USD value. I should have seen this coming, given how long it moved sideways in the 2015-2017 period, even when Bitcoin recovered. Linked below are my terrible calls on the XRP/BTC pairing. Even though I've done fairly well with my analysis, this is one that I have to admit I got dead wrong. The one redeeming thing I can say is that my XRP/ETH ratio analysis has been fairly spot-on.
Anyway, this chart actually continues to look fairly worrying. Neither the Ultimate Oscillator nor RSI looks particularly bullish. In fact, the ultimate oscillator may indicate that we've topped out for now, and that new lows are coming. I guess this is certainly possible if Bitcoin makes a new wave up here. XRP could actually go sideways in USD value for another year or so, before Bitcoin actually breaks its all-time-high. This is what happened in the last bull market as well. XRPBTC is also below ALL the weekly moving averages. That's also pretty bad. The 200w MA (blue) is only just starting to form. Perhaps more price discovery is needed in order to establish that long term trend. However, Bitcoin dominance continues to drop, and if the trend continues, XRP might want to join the party, as a big cap altcoin and major market player. There's also the possibility that XRP doesn't even partake in an altcoin bull run, but it should be noted that XRPUSD is still roughly 30% up since the recent bottom just above 20 cents.
This analysis is really about whether or not we can expect XRP to move up from here. I think it's certainly possible, if we continue to hold above the previously broken uptrend (orange). It's also encouraging that XRP rallied back above the 25-26 cents yearly support. Another important development to note is that XRP recently bounced from 2400 sats, which was major resistance in the previous bull market. If that happens to be the bottom for the ratio, XRP may actually be trying to confirm a macro higher low against Bitcoin, which would be incredibly bullish. I think this coin needs some pretty major news and strong price action to get it going though. I'd like to note that XRP is the only coin in my portfolio that is below my lowest purchase point, though I did only buy once at around 32 cents and have not averaged down on my position.
The daily chart on Binance doesn't look too horrible, with XRPBTC holding the 100d MA as support:
On the bearish side for XRP (in all honesty I'm feeling pretty neutral on this pairing right now), it could head all the way towards the 800-900 sats area if it cannot hold current levels. Important areas for XRP are marked on the chart for reference.
I have a fairly busy week coming up. I may only be able to do a video update at some point in the next few days. My life continues to get busier, but I did have time to make a few written posts today while I had the time.
This is not financial advice. This is for speculative purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Anyway, this chart actually continues to look fairly worrying. Neither the Ultimate Oscillator nor RSI looks particularly bullish. In fact, the ultimate oscillator may indicate that we've topped out for now, and that new lows are coming. I guess this is certainly possible if Bitcoin makes a new wave up here. XRP could actually go sideways in USD value for another year or so, before Bitcoin actually breaks its all-time-high. This is what happened in the last bull market as well. XRPBTC is also below ALL the weekly moving averages. That's also pretty bad. The 200w MA (blue) is only just starting to form. Perhaps more price discovery is needed in order to establish that long term trend. However, Bitcoin dominance continues to drop, and if the trend continues, XRP might want to join the party, as a big cap altcoin and major market player. There's also the possibility that XRP doesn't even partake in an altcoin bull run, but it should be noted that XRPUSD is still roughly 30% up since the recent bottom just above 20 cents.
This analysis is really about whether or not we can expect XRP to move up from here. I think it's certainly possible, if we continue to hold above the previously broken uptrend (orange). It's also encouraging that XRP rallied back above the 25-26 cents yearly support. Another important development to note is that XRP recently bounced from 2400 sats, which was major resistance in the previous bull market. If that happens to be the bottom for the ratio, XRP may actually be trying to confirm a macro higher low against Bitcoin, which would be incredibly bullish. I think this coin needs some pretty major news and strong price action to get it going though. I'd like to note that XRP is the only coin in my portfolio that is below my lowest purchase point, though I did only buy once at around 32 cents and have not averaged down on my position.
The daily chart on Binance doesn't look too horrible, with XRPBTC holding the 100d MA as support:
On the bearish side for XRP (in all honesty I'm feeling pretty neutral on this pairing right now), it could head all the way towards the 800-900 sats area if it cannot hold current levels. Important areas for XRP are marked on the chart for reference.
I have a fairly busy week coming up. I may only be able to do a video update at some point in the next few days. My life continues to get busier, but I did have time to make a few written posts today while I had the time.
This is not financial advice. This is for speculative purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Note
XRP still looks weak. Best to wait until it gets above the 200d MA (blue) and 4K sats to feel bullish on this pairing. 
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