XRP - On the Slow Road
Updated
The XRP cult is getting smaller and smaller. When I dissed XRP a year ago when XRP was around 45 cents, the XRP fan club rose up and told me I didn't know what I was talking about and XRP was going to hit $1 by the end of the year. XRP was suppose to have all sorts of great contacts with the banking sector and it would be the bankers' currency. They said XRP was fundamentally faster and was superior to any other crypto currency out there and would soon be used by everyone in the financial sector. I said regardless of its fundamentals, its price won't move very much. You might say we had a difference of opinions.
Where is XRP today? It fell from a high of 50 cents last year to 10 cents in the March low and is currently moving up. You might say XRP is on a fast limp uphill from here. Is it going to soar to the moon any time soon?
To answer that question I decided to look at XRP's past performance relative to Bitcoin, the Big Dog. ARF! ARF! (Does anyone get excited when you mention XRP anymore like they do with BTC?)
The chart is of XRPBTC for the past 5 years. I was interested in the weeks that XRP outperformed BTC and I drew rectangles around these weeks from the low to the peak before XRP started to decline. There were only 5 XRP bull runs in the past 5 years and looking at the chart reminds me of a rocket going off and falling to earth quickly after launch. Using this chart XRP outperformed BTC only 7.6% of the time over the past 5 years. If you manage to catch XRP before it launches, and get out of the trade a couple of weeks later, you can do pretty well, if you don't mind waiting for the launch. The XRP rocket has a very long fuse and launches at most once a year.
If you look at the chart you will see XRP spends a lot of its time under the EMA ribbon which I refer to as "under water".
IMHO, XRP has never been a long term hold. There will always be someone pushing XRP saying now is its time to rocket to new heights. If they keep saying it often enough, one day they will be right.
I just don't think the XRP model will ever produce a price over $1. Hey, I could be wrong but the day that happens you can be sure BTC & ETH will have outperformed XRP by a country mile.
As I said earlier, XRP has been on a fast limp uphill for the past week, which is great news for those who bought in at 30 cents. They might be able to break even some day. Currently I am short term bullish on XRP but will exit any long position at the first sign of trouble. There are many faster horses out there and there is no point trying to win a race with a jockey on a 3 legged horse.
Where is XRP today? It fell from a high of 50 cents last year to 10 cents in the March low and is currently moving up. You might say XRP is on a fast limp uphill from here. Is it going to soar to the moon any time soon?
To answer that question I decided to look at XRP's past performance relative to Bitcoin, the Big Dog. ARF! ARF! (Does anyone get excited when you mention XRP anymore like they do with BTC?)
The chart is of XRPBTC for the past 5 years. I was interested in the weeks that XRP outperformed BTC and I drew rectangles around these weeks from the low to the peak before XRP started to decline. There were only 5 XRP bull runs in the past 5 years and looking at the chart reminds me of a rocket going off and falling to earth quickly after launch. Using this chart XRP outperformed BTC only 7.6% of the time over the past 5 years. If you manage to catch XRP before it launches, and get out of the trade a couple of weeks later, you can do pretty well, if you don't mind waiting for the launch. The XRP rocket has a very long fuse and launches at most once a year.
If you look at the chart you will see XRP spends a lot of its time under the EMA ribbon which I refer to as "under water".
IMHO, XRP has never been a long term hold. There will always be someone pushing XRP saying now is its time to rocket to new heights. If they keep saying it often enough, one day they will be right.
I just don't think the XRP model will ever produce a price over $1. Hey, I could be wrong but the day that happens you can be sure BTC & ETH will have outperformed XRP by a country mile.
As I said earlier, XRP has been on a fast limp uphill for the past week, which is great news for those who bought in at 30 cents. They might be able to break even some day. Currently I am short term bullish on XRP but will exit any long position at the first sign of trouble. There are many faster horses out there and there is no point trying to win a race with a jockey on a 3 legged horse.
Note
The 3 legged horse has started into a canter in the past 12 hours. It has gone above the 200 EMA on the XRPBTC daily chart. I guess it didn't like me calling it a nag yesterday. How long can it keep it up? It has gone up 12.5% in the past 24 hours which is similar to ETH. You can check the chart and see XRPBTC usually rockets higher and falls quickly back to earth when it crosses back down through the ribbon EMA's or the 200 EMA. But it does look promising for the past few hours.
BTW, I've never seen a 3 legged horse win a race, so I'm not expecting XRP to keep this up. But as long as it wants to compete with the big boys, I will cheer it to the finish line. I still own XRP so I'll be the guy in the crowd cheering "Yes You Can! - Yes You Can!". But I have no illusions on XRP. From its past race history it cannot keep this up for very long unless it gets help from the big boys on Wall Street. It might be able to keep running a couple of weeks at most. When it fails it usually fails big at which time you will likely see XRP in the dog food aisle at your local grocery store.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.