XRP Ripple Daily Triangle, Part 3
Updated
And again it did a nasty drop below the triangle support and once again it got back inside of it. It makes it very difficult, because what should we follow, the triangle on lower time frames, which shows it clearly broke and is doing a retest now, or should we follow the daily chart?
Think everyone has learned, that in general higher time frames have more weight than lower time frames. Now i am personally a TA guy that uses lower time frames a lot, to find small and/or hidden signs that possibly give me signs of what the higher time frame might do. I don't dare to say which one is the correct version to use here, the left or right triangle. But i do know for sure, i won't be shorting this!! Because if it closes above the daily chart support line, bulls have a good chance of taking over. If it closes above the 0.59ish, good chance it's even a buy signal.
The 0.60ish zone, is still a big level here, which i called a magnet inside of this triangle. On the right we can also see that today we have a second inverse H&S, which also almost reached it's target, just like yesterday. Then what do i look for, to be able to judge that it doesn't do the same thing as yesterday, simply drop again. Well, yesterday it dropped quite a bit after it reached the target, so now (when being a bull), you don't want to see that happen again. You want to see something like the blue line, a steady consolidation, something like a bull flag. Where yesterday it dropped almost all the way back to the neckline of the IH&S.
Here below i have zoomed in, to illustrate it a bit better. While writing this, it already dropped a bit more than it should have, but maybe it can still change if it makes another small push up (something like the blue line. But now you can see and compare of what you don't want to see as a bull the coming hours. Also because if it drops too much again, lets say below 0.560ish, the daily candle becomes pretty unclear and much less bullish then when it closes above 0.585ish. I don't think this can one can fail again.
Now for the bigger picture, to be very bullish on XRP for the coming weeks, at some point, it has to make a very big push up. So seeing a big daily candle with high volume. That starts preferably from within the triangle, or as it breaks out of it. If we get such a big push, i think bulls might be able to sit back for a while. Now it doesn't need to be as big those 2 in the orange circle, but i do think it has to be at least like that green rectangle i have drawn. And again, it has to come together with a big volume jump as well. If so, there is chance the triangle is not just a triangle, but actually a bull flag (as discussed in the Part 1 of this analysis).
Previous analysis
Think everyone has learned, that in general higher time frames have more weight than lower time frames. Now i am personally a TA guy that uses lower time frames a lot, to find small and/or hidden signs that possibly give me signs of what the higher time frame might do. I don't dare to say which one is the correct version to use here, the left or right triangle. But i do know for sure, i won't be shorting this!! Because if it closes above the daily chart support line, bulls have a good chance of taking over. If it closes above the 0.59ish, good chance it's even a buy signal.
The 0.60ish zone, is still a big level here, which i called a magnet inside of this triangle. On the right we can also see that today we have a second inverse H&S, which also almost reached it's target, just like yesterday. Then what do i look for, to be able to judge that it doesn't do the same thing as yesterday, simply drop again. Well, yesterday it dropped quite a bit after it reached the target, so now (when being a bull), you don't want to see that happen again. You want to see something like the blue line, a steady consolidation, something like a bull flag. Where yesterday it dropped almost all the way back to the neckline of the IH&S.
Here below i have zoomed in, to illustrate it a bit better. While writing this, it already dropped a bit more than it should have, but maybe it can still change if it makes another small push up (something like the blue line. But now you can see and compare of what you don't want to see as a bull the coming hours. Also because if it drops too much again, lets say below 0.560ish, the daily candle becomes pretty unclear and much less bullish then when it closes above 0.585ish. I don't think this can one can fail again.
Now for the bigger picture, to be very bullish on XRP for the coming weeks, at some point, it has to make a very big push up. So seeing a big daily candle with high volume. That starts preferably from within the triangle, or as it breaks out of it. If we get such a big push, i think bulls might be able to sit back for a while. Now it doesn't need to be as big those 2 in the orange circle, but i do think it has to be at least like that green rectangle i have drawn. And again, it has to come together with a big volume jump as well. If so, there is chance the triangle is not just a triangle, but actually a bull flag (as discussed in the Part 1 of this analysis).
Previous analysis
Note
Wow how easily things can change, XRP was outperforming Bitcoin past hours, even though Bitcoin was going higher XRP was lagging and within 10 minutes or so it dumps more than 10% while Bitcoin is pretty stable. But weird it seems, that it happens half hour before the daily close. Don't know what the idea is here, but i am quite sure it's not a coincidence that it happens half hours before the daily close. Bears on XRP who want to keep the chart bearish? Or whales trying to prevent a buy signal because they are not done accumulating? I really don't dare to say which one it is.
Note
Okay, so this was pretty stupid of me. I was not aware of the XRP airdrop (SPARK). Holders of XRP were getting free coins (worth about 2% on the XRP price). This has most likely caused some of the weird moves of past days as well. The double inverse H&S i showed earlier, the failing daily candle etc. This of course changes a lot, think it's effect will prob be gone within a few days. So until then, certain levels (support and resistance) have less value to me now.
Note
New XRP analysis:
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