xrp cycle

Updated

2016-may -> 2017-march
2019-nov -> 2020-sep

If we look at the current chart development, it can be compared with the phase around May 2016. The turnaround in March 2017 came 10 months later when the low was reached. I predict a similar trend in about 10 months, when the low of 16 cents will finally be reached.

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There's something happening here.

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Big picture:

Detail:

As you can see, two resistances have been broken:
- the major violet one
- the minor yellow one

Before we can break the major red resistance the yellow one has to be retestet, which just happend some hours ago and was confirmed by a strong swing up with a high volume. So we are either staying in this price range or are ready to test the red resistance again. The next target/resistance area would be the price range between USD 0.44 and 0.56 where XRP is likely to dwell for some time.

Overall, I see those scenarios:
1. XRP stays between the yellow and red lines for some days/weeks before enough momentum can be formed to break out. At the latest when the lower boundary of the upward channel is reached. This could bring the price back to around USD 0.19 and could also take till February 2021 before break out.

2. A sudden heavy outbreak which ignores the major resistances as we have experienced in the past.

I doubled my reserves.

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XRP is above all slanted resistance lines. I guess, we will see a retest of the upper orange and perhaps the red one.

Then it can approach towards the important horizontal resistance around USD 0.33 which brings up an bumpy but possible inversed H&S pattern which could catapult XRP to the USD 0.50 area.

But more likely, we will see some more weeks of swinging between the yellow and orange line and need to touch the lower boundary of the upward channel before enough momentum can be build. This could be at USD 0.22 in January or USD 0.24 in February or even a long climb up hand over hand to USD 0.34 in July.

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Path, targets, resistances...

Good luck!

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Everybody should now heared about the sudden SEC charge against Ripple (the company) for their XRP offerings which brought XRP down significantly as US-exchanges are in troubles when XRP are defined as securities and therefore are beginning to delist it.

As defined by US law a security is either a share of a company or a debt obligation or some kind of hybrid. The main point is that the owner of a security has influence over the company or participates directly from it. As XRP is neither a share nor a debt obligation the whole issue seems to be the IPO/ICO and the massive earnings to Ripple and its founders which is also a bit complex as Ripple did not create the XRP but Ryan Fuller in 2004 who transfered those to OpenCoin resp. Ripple around 2013.

To get the whole picture, you can read the SEC arguments here:
sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2020/comp-pr2020-338.pdf

... and the Ripple arguments here:
ripple.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Ripple-Wells-Submission-Summary.pdf

Furthermore, the whole charge seems dubious as
- several institutions/countries have already stated that XRP is not a security (FINCEN, London, Japan, ...)
- they "forgot" totally to mention and charge Jed Caleb (another Ripple-Founder who received billions of XRP) and his modified XRP-clone Stellar (XLM)
- the charge is made after 7(!) years suddenly before holidays/new year and the change of the US government within an overall bullish trend change of the alt markets

We can compare the charts of KIN which faced a SEC charge recently:

Be cautious.

Order cancelled

Despite the 5-year penalty exemption for crypto exchanges if they trade securities (whose definitive status has not yet been determined, as is the case with XRP, for example) and despite the fact that Coinbase probably even has a licence to trade securities, Coinbase announced that it would stop trading XRP in a few days, which dealt XRP its final death blow.

Now, as far as I know, only about 5% of the global trading volume of XRP takes place in the US, but the SEC's accusation of massive favouritism towards Ripple and its founders, as well as their openly contradictory attitude towards retailers, has a heavy impact on trust towards Ripple and ultimately also XRP. It was a mistake from the outset to withhold such quantities of XRP or one should have made corresponding transparent rules for distribution that do not favour any individual company or individual for years (decades). But there are also legitimate questions about the indictment, which was only opened against Ripple/CL/BG after 7-8 years as well as shortly before Christmas and 1-2 days before the prosecutor's resignation - on top of that in the midst of a bullish XRP trend that finally occurred after 3 years. How does one "protect" investors like that, please? Another tidbit is the SEC's decision, made only after the fact, on the aforementioned penalty exemption for traders. With the best will in the world, one cannot create even more uncertainty in the market.

Even if XRP were to continue to exist without Ripple, the most important driver for its implementation as a global transaction medium would be lost. Now Ripple or CL & BG could also settle the matter out of court, as they themselves have noted. This possibility is still open. But as long as they do not do so, the uncertainty will continue to manifest itself, trust will be gambled away and the price will not rise.

The outcome of the proceedings is therefore as uncertain as the date of the decision. Until then, XRP is a high-risk investment, so stay away.

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XPR is back.

Around 2 months ago, I got in again at around 0.37 USD with a high risk attitude and half of my previous amount. Simultaneously, I diversified my portfolio to spread the market risk which I recommend everyone to do.

XRP has been thrashed quite a bit again with the hyped market manipulation push at the end of January that ended horribly on 1st of February. This analysis should be of interest as it showed the stop of all XRP fiat links at around 0.57 USD:
youtube.com/watch?v=3uqzSCwQM60

Nonetheless, XRP bounced back, stabilised and is now pushing again at the its boundaries of the newly formed upward channel. My first target still is around 1.28 USD with further upward potential (beware: the shown chart is in EURO):

The development of the SEC trial seems either not to be of much interest for the rest of the world or it is regarded in favour of Ripple. You can read more on the trial here:
xrpchat.com/topic/37097-my-running-analysis-of-the-sec-v-ripple-larsen-et-al/

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Next target: $ 2.34 (~ 1,94 €)

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Chart here in USD.

Be aware of possible deeper corrections to cool off the dayli RSI which would be healthy for further upward movements.

Furthermore, keep in mind that the chart is regularly pulled to the EMA (55 and 233), which are shown as brighter and darker lines.

In some hours XRP should touch the white "upward boundary line" again. This will be the moment when we will see if it will correct (to fib 38.2 % to even 61.8 % as shown in white) or move straight up to the mentioned $ 2.34.

The uncertainty of the further development is also confirmed by the actual small volume which will explode again.

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Chart in EUR:

If XRP runs down again, it forms a H&S at the 15 min -> back to 1.20 €
this would form another H&S on a higher timeframe -> back to 0.90 €

Alternatively, we are in sub-wave 5 up to ~1.50 €

tarzibou

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