A perfect setup to break your account!
Updated
Current market environment is nightmarish for TA. Argument can be made for all three directions the price can take. Up, down and horizontal direction. To make absolutely clear. For educational purposes, now is not a good moment in time to enter a trade in anticipation of any direction. However, time is swiftly running out.
Let's also acknowledge that XRP is a laggard at this point in time. BTC has an excellent potential to make gains up to +20%. Especially for this reason, I highlighted that argument can be made for all directions.
I also see traders growing very comfortable and optimistic regarding the immediate and straightforward liner continuation of bull trend. Well, that is simply wrong. If in doubt, return back to this analysis in two weeks’ tops. Don’t forget, we’ve had a major market correction. Some analysts argue that bottoms are made when volatility is low and currently volatility on D charts is not yet at levels, when lows were made in the past. I argue that price action should be viewed as motion of a falling rubber ball. Bouncing off the floor, it never bounces back up to the ceiling and it sometimes has some very funny moves.
I also see traders using MACD to identify divergence and justify expectations of higher prices. The reason why they do that evades logic, as MACD is built upon MA. During market correction and especially during market trying to discover it’s bottom MACD can’t work well. Instead I rather use RSI. So when somebody shows you a positive divergence on MACD, remember the negative RSI divergence on my 240 chart.
On my chart I am highlighting two structures that resemble (important: only resemble) triangles/flags. During this correction price is drawing some ugly patterns. I can see pennants, triangles, cups, flags, all of them lack a clear structure. I am throwing out everything except trendlines for this reason. So I am calling these two structures (if you care to look back, you can also find one around 11th January) only trendline. But they seem to be repeating. The volume is also stronger at the beginning and weaker to the end of these structures. You know what that means.
So what is my prediction?
For anybody that says they predict something, you should know that they mix TA with their personal bias. Sorry to disappoint, but the only true conclusion here is that if ….that…. then …. That. And you have most of the important levels on the chart already. What I am really trying to point out with this piece is: be careful, it’s not all gloom currently. Just because market sentiment is positive, it doesn’t mean jack sh*. Only above 1.25 can you be sure that bulls will take over and get ready for a nice ride up. And bellow 0.89 grab your seats for a roller coaster ride.
Just don’t break your account at this point in time and remember, cash is king.
This is not a trading strategy idea !!! For strategy look at some of the other excellent ideas!!!
XRPUSD
Let's also acknowledge that XRP is a laggard at this point in time. BTC has an excellent potential to make gains up to +20%. Especially for this reason, I highlighted that argument can be made for all directions.
I also see traders growing very comfortable and optimistic regarding the immediate and straightforward liner continuation of bull trend. Well, that is simply wrong. If in doubt, return back to this analysis in two weeks’ tops. Don’t forget, we’ve had a major market correction. Some analysts argue that bottoms are made when volatility is low and currently volatility on D charts is not yet at levels, when lows were made in the past. I argue that price action should be viewed as motion of a falling rubber ball. Bouncing off the floor, it never bounces back up to the ceiling and it sometimes has some very funny moves.
I also see traders using MACD to identify divergence and justify expectations of higher prices. The reason why they do that evades logic, as MACD is built upon MA. During market correction and especially during market trying to discover it’s bottom MACD can’t work well. Instead I rather use RSI. So when somebody shows you a positive divergence on MACD, remember the negative RSI divergence on my 240 chart.
On my chart I am highlighting two structures that resemble (important: only resemble) triangles/flags. During this correction price is drawing some ugly patterns. I can see pennants, triangles, cups, flags, all of them lack a clear structure. I am throwing out everything except trendlines for this reason. So I am calling these two structures (if you care to look back, you can also find one around 11th January) only trendline. But they seem to be repeating. The volume is also stronger at the beginning and weaker to the end of these structures. You know what that means.
So what is my prediction?
For anybody that says they predict something, you should know that they mix TA with their personal bias. Sorry to disappoint, but the only true conclusion here is that if ….that…. then …. That. And you have most of the important levels on the chart already. What I am really trying to point out with this piece is: be careful, it’s not all gloom currently. Just because market sentiment is positive, it doesn’t mean jack sh*. Only above 1.25 can you be sure that bulls will take over and get ready for a nice ride up. And bellow 0.89 grab your seats for a roller coaster ride.
Just don’t break your account at this point in time and remember, cash is king.
This is not a trading strategy idea !!! For strategy look at some of the other excellent ideas!!!
XRPUSDOrder cancelled
Great job. Price did not breach 1.25, as anticipated.
Price is now testing support. Bellow first blue support line, things will start looking ugly. It is not wise to bet everything on one trade, especially not a short trade in this case. Act accordingly, or not at all. The safe way is up, but bulls are losing strength. Next XRP post will be published as a new idea. No trade entered.
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